mttssn research · Conviction Layer
Nordic Conviction Layer
Portfolio & ranking from our deep-dive analyses · distinct from the universe screen
Computed: 2026-07-28
Conviction names: 258
Method: scenario-weighted, risk-adjusted
Data health · 2026-07-28
⛔ 0 blocked⚠ 0 re-author✓ 37 benign🗂 30 legacy

↔ Tables scroll sideways on mobile — swipe to see all columns (the ticker stays pinned). Click any ticker to open its deep-dive note.

Portfolio Candidates · 28 holdings · + Value-Momentum option · + NC-Momentum (automated)

Built from the conviction ranking (what we've actually analyzed), sized by risk-adjusted expected return × screen agreement, capped at 8% single / 25% sector. The universe screen is a weight haircut, not a hard gate — 6 holdings carry a screen disagreement.

E[r] is the authored return, frozen at each name's analysis-date price. E[r] live re-anchors the same bull/base/bear targets to the last close (2026-07-28) — hover a cell for distance-to-base-target. A split? badge means the price broke vs the analysis (likely a split, e.g. ROCK-B) and the name needs a re-stream; its live figure is suppressed and the sizing falls back to the authored weight. The sizing module below can size on either basis.

TickerNameWeightConv.E[r]E[r] liveSectorScreenLayers
HACK.STHacksaw6.4%Medium authored VC+60%+57%Consumer DiscretionaryVery Attractiveagree
ARION-SDB.STArion Banki6.0%Medium authored JP?+36%+32%FinancialsAttractiveagree
ACP.WAAsseco Poland SA5.2%Medium authored VC+19%+15%TechnologyAttractiveagree
ERIC-B.STEricsson B4.7%Medium authored RC+22%+35%TechnologyAttractiveagree
RBW.WARainbow Tours SA4.7%Medium authored VC+32%+30%Consumer DiscretionaryAttractiveagree
HLUN-B.COH. Lundbeck B4.5%Medium authored CP+34%+37%Health CareAttractiveagree
GENO.OLGeneral Oceans4.5%Medium authored CP+30%+37%IndustrialsAttractiveagree
BONHR.OLBonheur4.4%Medium authored CP+22%+33%UtilitiesAttractiveagree
NOVO-B.CONovo Nordisk B4.4%High est. CP+14%+0%Health CareAttractiveagree
ZZ-B.STZinzino▼21.3pp ▼714.4%Medium authored VC+36%+34%Consumer StaplesAttractiveagree
DNB.OLDNB Bank4.4%Medium authored CP+17%+11%FinancialsNeutralscreen
DIGIA.HEDigia3.9%Medium authored VC+19%+15%TechnologyAttractiveagree
MBR.WAMo-BRUK SA3.8%Medium authored VC+18%+14%IndustrialsAttractiveagree
SFAB.STSolid Försäkring3.6%Medium authored CP+14%+8%FinancialsNeutralscreen
TIETO.HETieto3.5%Medium authored VC+18%+10%TechnologyAttractiveagree
WAWI.OLWallenius Wilhelmsen3.2%Medium authored VC+28%+15%IndustrialsAttractiveagree
PACT.STProact IT3.2%Medium authored VC+16%+18%TechnologyAttractiveagree
KALMAR.HEKalmar3.2%Medium authored CP+19%+30%IndustrialsAttractiveagree
ELISA.HEElisa2.8%Medium authored QD+11%+7%Telecom ServicesAttractiveagree
VEFAB.STVEF2.8%Low authored JP?+38%+43%FinancialsAttractiveagree
LBW.WALubawa SA2.8%Medium authored CAT+17%+24%IndustrialsAttractiveagree
SBNOR.OLSparebanken Norge2.5%Medium authored CP+15%+9%FinancialsNeutralscreen
KMAR.OLKongsberg Maritime2.1%Low authored CP+36%+31%IndustrialsNeutralscreen
ALR.WAAlior Bank SA2.0%Medium authored QD+14%+20%FinancialsNeutralscreen
UIE.COUIE1.9%Low authored QD+13%+12%FinancialsAttractiveagree
BETS-B.STBetsson1.9%Medium est. CP+9%+1%Consumer DiscretionaryAttractiveagree
NORION.STNorion Bank1.8%Low authored VC+17%+23%FinancialsNeutralscreen
DELIA.OLDellia Group1.5%Low authored VC+16%-8%Consumer StaplesAttractiveagree
Financials
25%
Technology
20%
Industrials
20%
Consumer Discretionary
13%
Position sizing · Pure Value

Enter an allocation; each holding is sized by its target weight and converted to a share count at the latest close. Pick the base currency — holdings in other currencies are converted at the ECB reference rate. Prices as of 2026-07-28 (latest close) · FX as of 2026-07-28 (ECB via frankfurter). Shares rounded to the nearest whole. Toggle the portfolio above (Pure Value / Value+Momentum / NC-Momentum) — this table follows it, including the .xlsx download.

Weight bases. Conviction books: Live E[r] (expected return recomputed from the last close) or Authored (frozen weights). NC-Momentum: Inverse volatility (default), Live E[r], or Composite × momentum.

TickerNameWeightPricePxTargetSharesCostDrift

Risk-adjusted ranking · top 30 of 258
Movement: the # column shows each name's own conviction-rank week-over-week move (vs 2026-07-20); the badge by the name shows its universe-composite move (vs 2026-07-20). Hover a badge for the prior rank.

Ranked by Score (risk-adjusted expected return × confidence) — not by the qualitative conviction level in the Conv. column, which is a separate dimension and now also haircuts portfolio weight. E[r] = probability-weighted bull/base/bear return. Ratio = E[r] / dispersion (Sharpe-like). Confidence = extraction tier × freshness. Score = ratio × confidence.

Filter
#TickerNameConv.E[r]E[r] liveDisp.RatioConf.Score
2 ▲1DNB.OLDNB Bank ▼1Medium authored CP+17%+11%350.480.850.406
3 ▲8HACK.STHacksawMedium authored VC+60%+57%1260.470.850.402
4 ▼3ARION-SDB.STArion Banki ▲14Medium authored JP?+36%+32%780.460.850.393
5 ▼1DEDI.STDedicare ▲4Medium authored QC+30%670.450.850.383
6 ▼1NTEK-B.STNovotek ▼8Medium authored NMS+24%+12%600.400.850.341
7 ▼1SFAB.STSolid Försäkring ▼10Medium authored CP+14%+8%350.400.850.336
8 ▼1OLVAS.HEOlvi ▼4Medium authored CAT+26%660.390.850.332
9 NEWACP.WAAsseco Poland SA ▼7Medium authored VC+19%+15%560.331.000.332
10 ▼2ICP1V.HEIncap ▼56Medium authored HP?+20%560.370.850.313
11 ▼2ERIC-B.STEricsson B ▲2Medium authored RC+22%+35%760.301.000.296
12 ▼2RBW.WARainbow Tours SA ▼2Medium authored VC+32%+30%910.350.850.295
13 ▼1HLUN-B.COH. Lundbeck B ▲2Medium authored CP+34%+37%1020.340.850.286
14 ▼1KMAR.OLKongsberg Maritime ▼9Low authored CP+36%+31%750.470.600.283
15 ▼1GENO.OLGeneral Oceans ▼8Medium authored CP+30%+37%890.330.850.283
16 ▼1BONHR.OLBonheur ▲1Medium authored CP+22%+33%660.330.850.279
17 NEWZZ-B.STZinzino ▲1▼21.3pp ▼71Medium authored VC+36%+34%1100.330.850.278
18 ▼2GOD.OLGoodtech ▼3Medium authored QC+27%850.320.850.274
19 ▼2BOUV.OLBouvet ▼7Medium authored NMS+14%510.271.000.272
20 ▼2VEFAB.STVEF ▲4Low authored JP?+38%+43%880.440.600.263
21 ▼2SJF.COSJF Bank ▼14Medium authored JP?+11%360.310.850.260
22 ▼2PIHLIS.HEPihlajalinna ▼4Medium authored CAT+14%+18%460.300.850.253
23 ▼2DIGIA.HEDigia ▲3Medium authored VC+19%+15%450.410.600.248
24 ▼2NORION.STNorion Bank ▲4Low authored VC+17%+23%600.280.850.238
25 ▼2MBR.WAMo-BRUK SA ▼8Medium authored VC+18%+14%640.280.850.237
27 ▼2SBNOR.OLSparebanken Norge ▼1Medium authored CP+15%+9%410.380.600.227
28 ▼2MING.OLSparebank 1 SMN ▼2Medium authored JP?+9%350.260.850.223
29 ▼2NOVO-B.CONovo Nordisk B ▲5High est. CP+14%+0%500.280.780.223
30 NEWTIETO.HETieto ▲128Medium authored VC+18%+10%690.260.850.219
31 ▼3WAWI.OLWallenius Wilhelmsen ▼2Medium authored VC+28%+15%1140.240.850.205
32 ▼3PACT.STProact IT ▲2Medium authored VC+16%+18%670.240.850.204

Scenario bands: bootstrap_estimated (Step 4 replaces with authored bands). Authored bull/base/bear (per SCENARIO_SCHEMA.md) replace the bootstrap as analyses are re-streamed.

Refreshed since last run · 2026-07-28 · 3 names

Names re-streamed in the last batch, with what changed versus the prior analysis. ΔROIC in percentage points; Δeconomic-profit & Δprice in the analysis currency.  up ·  down. Read-only — the ranking is unaffected.

TickerPeriod endAdj ROICΔROICEcon. profitΔEPPriceΔPrice
NORTHM.CO2026-03-31T00:00:00→2026-03-3112.5%▼0.0pp20▼046■0
SILEX.ST2026-06-30T00:00:00→2026-06-3027.5%▼3.4pp285▼81190■0
ZZ-B.ST2026-03-31T00:00:00→2026-03-31106.7%▼21.3pp336▼71127■0
Screen × Conviction · systematic tilt

Where the layers disagree is signal for recalibrating the NC screen. Summary: 20 agree positive, 4 conviction-over-screen, 178 screen-over-conviction. The strong one-directional tilt — especially in Financials & Real Estate — flags that the screen's NOPAT/ROIC/EP composite under-rates financials, where ROE frameworks apply. That is the priority NC recalibration.

SectornConv>ScreenScreen>ConvNet tilt
Industrials60046-46
Financials75440-36
Consumer Discretionary33023-23
Energy22020-20
Technology22015-15
Health Care21014-14
Consumer Staples13011-11
Materials706-6
Utilities302-2
Deep-dive freshness · what to analyze next

Of 228 attractive names (composite ≥ 60), 66% have a fresh deep-dive. To do: 39 missing · 39 report-stale · 0 aging. By tier: V.Attractive 100% · Attractive 65%. This worklist refreshes every nightly run — work the top, coverage climbs to 100%. No fixed weekly batch.

TickerNameComp.RatingStatus
AKSO.OLAker Solutions80Attractivestale report
BETS-B.STBetsson80Attractivestale report
EVO.STEvolution78Attractivestale report
TRAC-B.STTraction78Attractivestale report
GPP.WAGrupa Pracuj SA79Attractivemissing
SOF-B.STSoftronic75Attractivestale report
INVE-B.STInvestor B74Attractivestale report
ABG.OLABG Sundal Collier73Attractivestale report
PROF-B.STProfilGruppen73Attractivestale report
GOD.OLGoodtech72Attractivestale report
NELLY.STNelly Group71Attractivestale report
ORES.STÖresund71Attractivestale report