MPCC charters 73 feeder and intermediate containerships to liner operators on time charters, focused on intra-Asia and Europe-Mediterranean trades. The Marshall Islands/Cayman structure delivers a 0.09% effective cash tax, so EBIT converts almost fully to NOPAT: LTM Q1 2026 revenue USD 509.6m, normalized EBIT 206.7m (40.6% margin, ex USD 36.7m vessel disposal gains), adjusted ROIC 17.8% on USD 1,162m invested capital, economic profit +113.5m.
The print is cycle-elevated. Suez/Red Sea re-routing has absorbed tonnage and held charter rates up; Q1 2026 revenue was already -6.5% y/y. The feeder segment is structurally steadier than mainlane — shorter charters, more counterparties, a lower relative orderbook — but MPCC remains a rate-taker whose earnings level resets at each re-chartering. Charter backlog coverage is not in the record, so the duration of today's economics cannot be verified here — that is the single most important number to confirm at the next report.
The balance sheet is built for the down-leg: net debt USD 202.5m (0.2x equity), no pension, no goodwill, and heavy dividend distributions (~13% trailing yield per the screen composite). Reporting is candid — the company's own ex-gain EBIT of 209.3m ties to our normalization within 1.2%. The question is not the quality of the LTM print but its durability.
The reverse-EP read does the work: EV of USD 1,312.5m is 1.13x IC with NOPAT/EV at 15.7%, so at the record's 8% WACC the market capitalizes ~USD 105m of perpetual NOPAT — roughly half the LTM 206.5m. Zero-growth EBV on the LTM print would be ~NOK 53/share, but that number is meaningless for a cyclical at elevated rates; on an assumed through-cycle NOPAT of USD 90-120m (assumption, not observed — flagged), conservative equity value lands near NOK 23-28. Price sits inside that band.
Base NOK 26 (NOPAT fades toward ~USD 110m durable, 8% WACC, net debt bridge); bull NOK 33 (Suez disruption persists into 2027-28 and re-charterings print near current levels, ~USD 150m durable); bear NOK 16 (2023-style rate crash, EP to zero, EV toward and briefly below IC). Dividends accrue on top in base and bull. Note the WACC sensitivity: a shipping-appropriate 10% cuts EP to ~USD 90m and pulls the base toward price.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -29.2% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 18% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +9.8 pp); the no-growth value is $6/share (26% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $33 | ≥17% | +34% | 20% | Suez shut into 2027-28; re-charters near current rates |
| Base | $26 | ≥17% | +6% | 50% | NOPAT fades to ~USD 110m through-cycle; dividends carry |
| Bear | $16 | ≥17% | -35% | 30% | Rate crash; EP to zero, EV toward IC |
| Prob-weighted | $24 | — | -1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 7.25% | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 8.00% (base) | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 8.75% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 9.50% | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Green = fair value above the current price of $24.62. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
LTM economics ride time charters struck at elevated rates; every re-chartering resets the earnings level — backlog coverage is the key unverified variable.
Re-routing absorbs tonne-miles and props rates; a reopening releases effective capacity and is the largest single swing factor, in both directions.
Lower relative orderbook and an ageing feeder fleet versus mainlane support scrapping-led balance — the structural argument for rate resilience.
~13% trailing dividend yield with 0.2x net debt/equity; payouts are fundable through a normal downturn and are the main vehicle of shareholder return at this price.
0.09% effective rate converts nearly all EBIT to distributable NOPAT — a genuine cash-conversion edge, though it also flatters ROIC comparisons.
MPCC is a well-run, conservatively financed feeder-tonnage provider at an elevated point in its rate cycle. The 17.8% ROIC and +USD 113.5m EP are observed, but the market already discounts roughly half the LTM NOPAT in perpetuity, which is where a conservative through-cycle base belongs. HOLD, low conviction; base NOK 26 with distributions carrying the return.
We would turn constructive nearer NOK 16-19, where EV approaches invested capital and the bear case is in the price — and more cautious on a Suez reopening or evidence of re-charterings printing materially below expiring rates.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: other_one_off_addback: vessel disposal gains LTM Q1 2026 = USD 36.7M removed (FY 48.4M − Q1'25 11.7M + Q1'26 0M). Marshall Islands/Cayman structure: effective tax 0.09% — tax shield on adjustment effectively zero.
Post-tax add-backs: No goodwill. No intangible assets. No PPE impairment in LTM period.
Company add-backs we reject: SBC immaterial: USD 286K FY2025. No PPA amortization. Operating lease ROU USD 264K — essentially zero.
Invested capital: BS from Q1 2026 (31.03.2026). IB debt: non-current 408.8M + current 54.1M = 462.9M. Cash 260.4M. Operating lease liability 264K excluded (immaterial). No pension obligations. Incorporated in Marshall Islands; Cayman Islands subsidiary structure.
Pages read — FY: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80] · Q: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11]
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.