Castellum is one of the Nordics' largest commercial-property owners (offices + logistics across Sweden and the Nordics). On the EPRA framework that suits property — income from property management (the FFO proxy) was SEK 4.6bn (SEK 9.41/share), so the stock trades at ~12.5x P/FFO — and at a ~25-26% discount to EPRA NRV of ~SEK 164/share. GAAP earnings and our ROIC/EP screen are distorted by property revaluations and are not the right lens here.
Management's capital allocation is rational for the discount: it scrapped the FY2025 dividend and is buying back stock below NAV (SEK 2.7bn year-to-date), which compounds NAV per share. But the operating signal is still soft — economic occupancy ~88% (down ~2pp), like-for-like NOI −5.8%, FFO flat-to-down — and the balance sheet carries live refinancing risk (3.1% average interest rate, only ~3.3-year fixed term, ~32% of debt maturing within a year) against a 37.5% LTV (ICR ~3.2x). The cheap NAV and buyback support are real, but a re-rating needs net leasing to inflect and rates to stabilise.
At ~12.5x P/FFO and a ~25-26% discount to EPRA NRV (~SEK 164/share), Castellum is cheap on assets — but the discount compensates for soft NOI and refinancing risk.
Base SEK 135 (a partial close of the NAV discount as buybacks compound NAV and leasing stabilises); bull SEK 165 if occupancy/NOI inflect and rates ease, narrowing the discount toward NAV; bear SEK 100 if leasing stays soft and refinancing costs rise.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 165 | +35% | 30% | Occupancy/NOI inflect + rates ease; discount narrows |
| Base | SEK 135 | +11% | 45% | Partial NAV-discount close + buyback compounding |
| Bear | SEK 100 | -18% | 25% | Leasing stays soft; refinancing costs rise |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 135 | +11% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
~25-26% discount to EPRA NRV; management buying back stock below NAV.
Falling/stable rates lift property values and cut refinancing cost.
A return to positive net leasing (e.g. the Ericsson/Infinity decisions) re-rates it.
The logistics portfolio offers structural demand vs the softer office book.
Castellum is a cheap-on-assets Nordic property owner (~25-26% discount to EPRA NRV, ~12.5x P/FFO) with rational buyback-below-NAV capital allocation, but soft operations and live refinancing risk cap conviction. HOLD with a cautious value lean; base SEK 135.
The re-rating hinges on a leasing inflection + rate stability; accumulate on the NAV discount with the buyback as support, sized for the cyclicality.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEK 9,528M (LTM) | — | ||
| SEK 4,621M (LTM); SEK 9.41/share | — | ||
| SEK 4,396M (LTM); EPRA EPS 8.95 | — | ||
| SEK 164.17/share; SEK 77,881M total (31 Mar 2026) | — | ||
| Net interest-bearing liabilities SEK 59,443M (31 Mar 2026) | — | ||
| 37.5% (LTV); 43.0% (LTV property); 51.4% (EPRA LTV) | — | ||
| Economic occupancy 88.0% (31 Mar 2026) | — | ||
| -2.0% rental income; -5.8% NOI (like-for-like, excl. FX) | — | ||
| 3.1% average closing rate; fixed term 3.3 yrs; debt maturity 4.3 yrs; 65% hedged >1yr | — | ||
| 9.5x (LTM, 31 Mar 2026) | — | ||
| 3.2x (LTM) | — | ||
| FY2025: SEK 0 (no dividend, AGM 29 Apr 2026); FY2024: SEK 2.48 | — | ||
| Properties -1,665M, goodwill -128M, derivatives +16M (LTM) | — | ||
| Stockholm 30%, West 20%, Central 18%, Oresund 16%, Malardalen 12%, Finland 4% of property value | — |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.