TORM is one of the largest pure-play product-tanker owners (95 vessels), deliberately spot-exposed: earnings are a direct read on clean-petroleum-product freight rates. The current rate environment is exceptional for a geopolitical reason — the Hormuz closure removed ~5% of effective tanker supply while rerouting lengthened ton-miles — and TORM converts spot strength into cash and dividends faster than time-charter-heavy peers.
The valuation question is entirely cycle position. LTM EP +DKK 668M over an 8% WACC is real value creation, but it annualizes a rate spike: when the strait normalizes, stranded tonnage returns and rates mean-revert toward mid-cycle within quarters. The note treats current profitability as cycle-high and anchors the base case on partial normalization plus the interim dividend stream.
At 195.2 DKK: base DKK 210 (+8%) — rates stay firm through 2026 on prolonged disruption, then fade; the running dividend carries most of the return. Bull DKK 285 (+46%) — the disruption extends into 2027 with tight newbuild supply, a classic tanker super-cycle leg. Bear DKK 130 (−33%) — the strait reopens, ~5% of the fleet un-strands, CPP flows re-shorten, and TCE reverts to mid-cycle; tanker equities give back event premiums fast. Probabilities 0.25/0.45/0.30 — the bear is weighted for the event-driven nature of the spike.
Reverse-DCF panel unavailable: no market data (ev/mcap missing).
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 285 | +46% | 25% | Disruption extends into 2027; tight newbuild supply — tanker super-cycle leg |
| Base | DKK 210 | +8% | 45% | Rates firm through 2026 then fade; dividend carries the return |
| Bear | DKK 130 | -33% | 30% | Strait reopens; stranded tonnage returns; TCE reverts to mid-cycle |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 205 | +5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
LR2 +73% / MR +34% YoY; TCE USD 34,937/day Q1 2026 (+30%) and firm into Q2.
One TORM platform converts rate strength to cash quickly; high payout follows.
Rerouting around the Gulf lengthens voyages — effective supply tightens beyond the stranded tonnage.
95 vessels with LR2/MR mix positioned for both long-haul and regional CPP trades.
TORM is a well-run spot tanker play whose current economics are real but event-inflated. The stock has re-rated with the rates; at 195 DKK the upside case requires the disruption to persist. HOLD — collect the dividend while the premium lasts, do not add at a geopolitical rate peak. Base DKK 210.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: other_one_off_addback = −13.6M = LTM profit from sale of vessels (FY2025 19.0 − Q1 2025 9.4 + Q1 2026 4.0 = 13.6M). TORM separerar 'Profit from sale of vessels' som en explicit IS-rad — tydligt engångselement (flottstyrning/recycling). Justeras BORT från adj EBIT. After-tax = −13.6 × (1−0.031) = −13.2M. OBS: SBC FY2025 34.1M (LTM ~30M baserat på equity-changes: Q1 2025 7.9M, Q1 2026 3.8M → LTM = 34.1 − 7.9 + 3.8 = 30.0M) hålls i opex per mttssn-metodologi — real kostnad. PPA-amortisering (intangibles från Marine Exhaust Technology A/S-förvärv): 1.5M/år — negligibel (<0.5% av EBIT), ej addback. Exploration: ej tillämpligt (shipping).
Post-tax add-backs: NOLL impairments i LTM. Note 12 (impairment) bekräftar: inga förlustredovisningar på fartyg 2025 eller 2024. Broker-värdering av flottan per 31 mars 2026 = 3,619M (+25% över bokfört värde 2,889M) → kraftig overgan mot uppskrivning. Marine Engineering CGU: excess 20.4M (2025) → ingen nedskrivning. Goodwill-impairment: inget nytt sedan 2022 (Goodwill carrying 1.8M, accumulated impairment 11.4M).
Company add-backs we reject: TORM's Adj EBITDA justerar mer poster än vi gör — troligtvis orealiserade FX-rörelser på bunkerkontrakten och finansiella instrument. Skillnad TORM APM vs vår adj EBIT: 5.5% (inom tröskel). SBC 30M LTM hålls i opex. PPA-amortisering 1.5M negligibel — hålls i opex.
Invested capital: BS snapshot 31 mars 2026 (Q1 2026). Total equity = 2,273.0M (100% TORM plc, NCI = 0 fr.o.m. Q1 2026 — Hafnia-affären eliminerade NCI). Borrowings total = NC 795.1 + C 286.7 = 1,081.8M. Dessa inkluderar: (1) mortgage debt/obligationer (~848M, Note 2 FY2025), (2) vessel sale-and-leaseback-finansiering (~157M, Note 2 FY2025), (3) IFRS 16 kontorsleasingliabilitet (~10.7M, Note 11 FY2025). Avdrag IFRS 16-leasingliabilitet: −10.7M (kontor/utrustning per Note 11 — ej vessel SLB som är korrekt skuld). IB debt = 1,081.8 − 10.7 = 1,071.1M. Vessel SLB (157.5M) behålls i IC: fartyg kvarstår på BS som ägda tillgångar (TORM är ekonomisk ägare med återköpsoptioner). Pension/DBO: TORM saknar defined benefit pension. 'Other non-current liabilities' = 7.9M = dansk semesterfondsförpliktelse (operativ skuld, ej kapitalstruktur). Cash (unrestricted) = 193.4M (CF-statement slut-saldo exkl. restricted cash 3.0M). IC = 2,273.0 + 1,071.1 − 193.4 = 3,150.7M. Jämförelse TORM's eget 'Invested capital' = 3,154M (Q1 2026 key figures) → nästan identisk ✓ (3M-differens från exakt IFRS 16-behandling).
Pages read — FY: [153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, 172, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180] · Q: [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20]
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.