Aker Solutions provides field-life services (maintenance, modifications, hook-up) on the NCS through its Life Cycle segment and project delivery through Renewables & Field Development, and holds a 20% stake in the SLB OneSubsea subsea JV. LTM Q1 2026 EBIT was ~NOK 3,453m (FY2025 3,565 − Q1'25 853 + Q1'26 741), an adjusted ROIC of ~29% on ~NOK 9.9bn invested capital — well above the 8% WACC, with a strong net-cash balance sheet (~NOK 8.7bn at Q1'26).
But the screen rates it cheap on cycle-high earnings. The company guides FY2026 revenue to ~NOK 50bn (−20% vs FY2025 63.2bn) at a 7.0–7.5% EBITDA margin ex-SLB OneSubsea, so the ~29% ROIC is a peak that reverts as project volumes phase down. The mitigant is order coverage: Q1 2026 order intake was a record NOK 28.8bn (Life Cycle 23.0bn / 6.9x book-to-bill on Aker BP + Equinor NCS frame agreements) and backlog stands at NOK 80.2bn — so the revenue dip is a phasing trough, not a demand collapse. A cyclical services name with a strong balance sheet and big capital returns, not a compounder.
On ~29% peak ROIC and a net-cash balance sheet the equity looks cheap, but the right frame is mid-cycle: as FY2026 revenue rolls ~20% lower, normalised ROIC compresses toward the high-teens and the multiple should be set on that, not the peak. The 20%-owned SLB OneSubsea JV + record backlog are the offsetting value/visibility.
Base NOK 43 (~current; cycle peak offset by record backlog + capital returns); bull NOK 55 if the backlog converts at margin and SLB OneSubsea value is crystallised; bear NOK 32 on a deeper oil-services downcycle as revenue rolls over.
Reverse-DCF panel unavailable: no market data (ev/mcap missing).
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 55 | +28% | 30% | Backlog converts at margin; SLB OneSubsea value crystallised |
| Base | NOK 43 | +0% | 45% | ≈ current; peak offset by record backlog + returns |
| Bear | NOK 32 | -25% | 25% | Deeper oil-services downcycle as revenue rolls over |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 44 | +2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
Q1'26 order intake NOK 28.8bn (book-to-bill 2.1x); backlog NOK 80.2bn — strong revenue visibility through the dip.
Long-term frame agreements (Aker BP, Equinor) on the Norwegian Continental Shelf — the durable core.
~NOK 8.7bn net cash; April dividend NOK 8.60/sh (ordinary 3.60 + extraordinary 5.00) — large capital returns.
20% of the subsea JV is meaningful off-balance-sheet value not in the core ROIC.
Aker Solutions earns a ~29% ROIC against an 8% WACC on a strong net-cash balance sheet, but the company itself guides FY2026 revenue down ~20% — this is a cycle peak. The record NOK 80.2bn backlog and big capital returns are the reasons to hold through the phasing dip. HOLD, low conviction; cyclical-peak, base NOK 43.
Own for the backlog + capital returns, not a re-rating; buy in weakness, not at the cycle high.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM EBIT bridge — Q1 2026 EBIT | 741 | Key Figures p12 📄 p.12 | Q1 2026 reported EBIT; LTM = FY 3,565 − Q1’25 853 + Q1’26 741 = 3,453 |
| LTM EBIT bridge — FY2025 EBIT | 3,565 | Key Figures p12 📄 p.12 | FY2025 anchor EBIT |
| Q1 2026 revenue | 13,425 | Key Figures p12 📄 p.12 | Q1 2026 total revenue; confirms cyclical normalization vs 2026 guide ~50bn |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.