Dellia sells premium dried fruit (natural, chocolate-dipped Dippies, flavoured) under one brand across 13 countries and ~14,000 grocery stores, anchored in Nordic grocery (NorgesGruppen, Rema, Coop, ICA, Kesko) with a scaling Pan-Europe leg — first profitable UK quarter and a Tesco trial from late June 2026. LTM revenue NOK 731m; FY2025 grew +140% organically.
The economics are genuinely capital-light: NOK 273m adjusted invested capital carries NOK 731m of revenue, adjusted ROIC 27.7% and EP +NOK 53.8m at the 8% default WACC. Honest caveat: the ROIC is flattered by stripping NOK 222m of IPO/placement cash from IC, and working capital is funded through NOK 119m of factoring debt — the return spread is real but younger and more fragile than the headline.
The company is deliberately investing ahead of growth — brand building and Nordic shelf-space defence cut Q1 EBIT margin to 9.5% from 12.7% even as gross margin rose to 33.6% from 30.5%. The Kirirom acquisition (12,000t Cambodian dried-mango capacity, closing moved to Q3 2026) converts a distributor into a vertically integrated brand platform with supply control.
Reverse-DCF on the record's market block: EV NOK 845.7m over adjusted NOPAT NOK 75.7m is 11.2x, implying roughly -1% perpetual NOPAT growth at the 8% WACC — against guided 2026 revenue of NOK 910-960m ex-Kirirom (+43-50%). Even haircutting to a 10% sustainable EBIT margin on the guide midpoint, zero-growth value is ~NOK 23/share; growth is free at NOK 21.8.
Base NOK 27 (+24%): 2027 NOPAT ~NOK 85m (revenue ~NOK 1.05bn, 10.5% EBIT margin) at 13x plus net cash. Bull NOK 36: Kirirom consolidates, gross-margin gains hold and EBIT margin recovers toward 13%. Bear NOK 14: margin stuck at 7-8% on shelf-space competition, growth fades, factoring-funded working capital strains.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 28% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 26,917/share (123473% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 36 | ≥-50% | +65% | 25% | Kirirom consolidates; EBIT margin recovers toward 13% on gross-margin gains |
| Base | NOK 27 | ≥-50% | +24% | 45% | Guide delivered at compressed ~10.5% margin; zero-growth floor ~NOK 23 |
| Bear | NOK 14 | ≥-50% | -36% | 30% | Shelf-space war holds margin at 7-8%; growth fades, WC strains |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 25 | — | +16% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 36,690 | 41,182 | 44,442 | 49,756 | 53,599 | 64,345 |
| 7.25% | 31,034 | 34,650 | 37,267 | 41,523 | 44,593 | 53,149 |
| 8.00% (base) | 26,917 | 29,901 | 32,054 | 35,547 | 38,060 | 45,041 |
| 8.75% | 23,784 | 26,292 | 28,096 | 31,015 | 33,110 | 38,908 |
| 9.50% | 21,320 | 23,457 | 24,990 | 27,464 | 29,234 | 34,114 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 21.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
NOK 910-960m revenue ex-Kirirom, +43-50% on FY2025; Q1 already ran +76% YoY.
12,000t Cambodian dried-mango capacity closing Q3 2026; vertical integration adds supply control and gross margin.
13 countries, ~14,000 stores; first profitable UK quarter, Tesco trial from late June 2026.
Q1 gross margin 33.6% vs 30.5% — sourcing control is converting scale into margin even during the spend phase.
NOK 273m invested capital on NOK 731m revenue; incremental growth needs little capital.
Dellia is an early-stage quality compounder candidate priced as ex-growth: 27.7% adjusted ROIC, positive EP, net cash, and an EV embedding ~-1% perpetual growth against a +43-50% guided year. The conservative base case — compressed margins, no Kirirom credit — still reaches NOK 27 (+24%). BUY, low conviction; the discount pays for the uncertainty.
Conviction is capped LOW until Kirirom closes cleanly, FCF turns with the working-capital cycle, and a second reporting year confirms the margin floor. Sustained EBIT margin below ~8% or a Kirirom break would shift the call toward the NOK 14 bear case.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FY2025) | 638,291 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income / Note 2.1 📄 p.35 | FY anchor revenue for LTM bridge. |
| EBIT (FY2025) | 74,462 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.35 | Reported operating profit; base for one-off add-backs. |
| Company adjusted EBIT (FY2025) | 93,300 | Board of Directors' report / APM 📄 p.13 | Company adjusted EBIT of NOK 93.3m implies NOK 18.8m of one-off add-backs; anchors the APM bridge. |
| One-off adjustments (FY2025) | 18,838 | Note 2.2 Segments / Eliminations & Adjustments 📄 p.46 | NOK 18.8m listing + Kirirom transaction and other non-recurring costs — genuine one-offs added back to NOPAT. |
| Revenue Q1 2026 | 214,425 | Interim statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.14 | Quarter added in LTM bridge. |
| Revenue Q1 2025 | 121,581 | Interim statement of comprehensive income (comparative) 📄 p.14 | Quarter subtracted in LTM bridge. |
| EBIT Q1 2026 | 20,404 | Interim statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.14 | Clean EBIT (company discontinued adjusted-EBIT APM); added in LTM. |
| EBIT Q1 2025 | 15,406 | Interim statement of comprehensive income (comparative) 📄 p.14 | Subtracted in LTM bridge. |
| Total equity (31.03.2026) | 373,092 | Interim statement of financial position 📄 p.16 | Latest-interim equity for IC snapshot. |
| Interest-bearing liabilities (31.03.2026) | 119,370 | Interim statement of financial position 📄 p.16 | Non-current 195 + current 119,175 factoring/trade-finance debt added to IC. |
| Cash (31.03.2026) | 237,113 | Interim statement of financial position 📄 p.16 | IPO/placement-heavy cash; excess stripped from IC. |
| Cumulative translation differences (31.03.2026) | -3,040 | Interim statement of changes in equity 📄 p.17 | Accumulated OCI removed from equity for IC. |
| Consolidated tax rate | 0.23 | Note 2.8 Income tax 📄 p.44 | Group effective/consolidated rate ~23% used to tax adjusted EBIT. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.