Sentia is a Nordic general contractor — HENT (Norway, ~80% of revenue: schools, offices, healthcare) + Sentia Sweden — spun out of Ratos and listed on Euronext Oslo Børs in June 2025. The moat is relationship-driven early-phase project access (collaborative/target-price contracts, ~70% public-sector backlog of NOK 18.3bn ≈ 1.5x revenue) plus Norwegian scale via HENT.
The economic engine is negative working capital: clients fund operations, so the business needs near-zero net capital and the equity sits in cash. Invested capital is therefore negative (net cash ~NOK 4.2bn > equity NOK 1.8bn), so ROIC and economic profit are not meaningful — we mark them n/a and value the business on ROACE ~34%, EV/EBIT ~5.7x and the cash return. Capital allocation is aggressive return-of-cash (96% payout, minority buyout).
With negative invested capital the reverse-DCF is uninformative; value rests on EV/EBIT ~5.7x, NOPAT/EV ~13.8%, a ~7.2% dividend yield, and the net-cash balance sheet.
Base NOK 85 on a stable-to-improving Nordic construction cycle and the cash return; bull NOK 105 if order intake and margins firm; bear NOK 60 on a construction downturn or a fixed-price project loss.
Reverse-DCF panel unavailable: non-positive ic.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 105 | +37% | 30% | Order intake and margins firm |
| Base | NOK 85 | +11% | 45% | Stable Nordic construction cycle + cash return |
| Bear | NOK 60 | -22% | 25% | Construction downturn or fixed-price project loss |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 85 | +10% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
Clients prepay → near-zero net capital, net cash ~NOK 4.2bn, ROACE ~34%.
EV/EBIT ~5.7x, ~13% FCF yield, ~7% dividend yield — value + income.
HENT won Equinor Forus East + Tinden; SSEA won Stockholm University of the Arts.
~70% public backlog of NOK 18.3bn (~1.5x revenue) — visibility.
Sentia is a cheap, cash-rich, capital-light Nordic contractor whose prepaid model gives a fortress balance sheet and high ROACE, but with thin margins and customer concentration. Value is on EV/EBIT and the cash return (ROIC is n/a on negative IC). HOLD, medium conviction; base NOK 85.
Constructive on sustained order/margin improvement; the net-cash balance sheet and high payout underpin the downside.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (operating income, FY2025) | 11,772 | Income statement / Note 4-5 📄 p.112 | Consolidated income statement line 'Operating income' 11,772 (2024: 10,531). 'Total income' incl. other income is 11,798. LTM revenue 12,131 derived as FY 11,772 - Q1'25 2,836 + Q1'26 3,195. |
| EBIT / Operating profit (FY2025) | 576 | Income statement 📄 p.112 | Consolidated 'Operating profit' 576 (2024: 566). Cross-checked in segment note p120 (HENT 550 + Sweden 97 + Other -71) and APM p160. LTM EBIT 617 = 576 - 103 + 144, matching the company's own four-quarter LTM EBIT of 617 (Q1 APM p22). |
| EBIT LTM Q1 2026 (company-disclosed cross-check) | 617 | APM — ROACE reconciliation 📄 p.22 | Company states 'Operating profit (EBIT) over the last four quarters 617' — exact match to our independently built LTM EBIT, validating the LTM bridge. |
| Goodwill (carrying, FY2025) | 1,131 | Note 12 Goodwill and intangible assets 📄 p.129 | Goodwill HENT 870 + Sweden 261 = 1,131 carrying value, unchanged YoY, no impairment. Total intangibles incl. 22 other intangibles = 1,153 (matches BS p113). Only NOK 5m ordinary intangible amortization for the year (not PPA). |
| One-off / items affecting comparability | 0 | APM reconciliation + Income statement 📄 p.160 | Neither the income statement nor the APM reconciliation discloses any adjusted EBIT or items affecting comparability — operating profit is the single figure. IPO costs were taken to equity (share premium), not P&L; only +6m IPO-related audit fees in opex (Note 8, immaterial). No restructuring, no impairment. Hence zero NOPAT normalization. |
| Cash and cash equivalents (31.03.2026) | 4,433 | Balance sheet 📄 p.14 | Latest BS cash 4,433 (FY2025-12-31: 4,323, p113). All bank deposits in a Nordea cash pool (Note 18, p134); no disclosed restricted cash. Drives the excess-cash strip (4,190) and the negative invested capital. |
| Interest-bearing debt (31.03.2026) | 197 | APM — interest-bearing liabilities 📄 p.21 | Total interest-bearing liabilities 197 = lease liabilities 188 + financial derivative/other 9. No bonds or bank loans. Lease interest (9, Note 14) is already below EBIT under IFRS 16, so no NOPAT add-back; leases excluded from IC (offices/equipment, ~2.5% of assets). |
| Total equity (31.03.2026) | 1,802 | Balance sheet / Changes in equity p16 📄 p.14 | Total equity 1,802 (FY2025-12-31: 1,696, p113). NCI = 0 (minorities of 188 at end-2024 fully bought out in 2025 for -157, p16). Currency translation reserve (OCI) = 21 at 31.03.2026 -> equity_ex_oci = 1,781. |
| Tax (effective rate) | 0.22 | Note 10 Tax 📄 p.126 | FY2025 total tax 160 on PBT 731 = 21.9% effective; Norway statutory 22%, Sweden 20.6%. LTM tax 174 / EBT 789 = 22.0%. Clean reconciliation (only minor non-deductible/non-taxable items). 0.22 applied to EBIT for NOPAT. |
| Net working capital (31.03.2026) | -3,398 | APM — net working capital 📄 p.21 | NWC -3,398 (FY: -3,454). Strongly negative: contract liabilities/advances + payables exceed receivables/contract assets — the structural reason the contractor needs ~zero net invested capital and carries net cash, making ROIC undefined. |
| Net financial position / net cash (31.03.2026) | 4,244 | Group key figures / APM p21 📄 p.4 | Net financial position +4,244 (cash+IB receivables 4,441 minus IB debt 197). Net cash exceeds equity 1,802 — confirms the negative-IC special case and that valuation/return analysis must lean on earnings + ROACE, not ROIC/EP. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.