Zinzino is a Nordic-founded (Gothenburg) global direct-sales company selling test-based, personalised omega-3/skincare supplements (BalanceOil, HANZZ+HEIDII) plus Faun Pharma contract manufacturing, listed on Nasdaq First North Premier. LTM revenue is SEK 3,535.9m (FY2025 +51% YoY, Q1 2026 +27% YoY), built on organic distributor-network growth layered with 9 acquisitions completed since January 2025 (Zurvita, Valentus, Ecosystem, Bodē Pro, Truvy, a 35% Xion stake, Sanki, ItWorks!).
The model is capital-light and debt-free: SEK 889.2m net cash, zero interest-bearing debt, adjusted invested capital of only SEK 340.9m against SEK 363.8m adjusted NOPAT. LTM economic profit is unambiguously positive at +SEK 336.5m — the mechanical ROIC print (106.7%) is a symptom of the tiny IC base (capital-light guardrail), not a normal operating-leverage signal; EP in absolute SEK terms is the reliable comparator.
M&A is financed almost entirely via newly issued shares rather than debt or cash, and despite issuing meaningfully more shares (avg. count +4.3% FY2025), EPS still grew +84% (SEK 9.09 vs 4.95) — capital allocation has been earnings-accretive so far, though 9 deals in 15 months with provisional purchase-price allocations (ItWorks! goodwill SEK 106.3m preliminary) and a mechanical negative-incremental-ROIC flag warrant caution.
Capitalising LTM adjusted NOPAT of SEK 363.8m at 8% WACC, the reverse-DCF fair EV runs SEK 5,958.7m at 0% perpetual growth and SEK 6,621.1m at GDP growth (2.5%), against an EV of SEK 3,923.9m today — the market prices roughly -1.4% perpetual NOPAT decline despite LTM revenue +27% YoY. Bridging through SEK 889.2m net cash and 37.43m shares gives SEK 182.95/share at 0% growth, SEK 200.65 at GDP growth.
Base target SEK 180 (approx. 0% perpetual growth, deliberately at/below even the flat-growth DCF print to discount unresolved PPA/incremental-ROIC questions); bull SEK 230 (continued share-funded roll-up sustains high-single-digit growth without further margin dilution); bear SEK 90 (a Turkey-style distributor-organisation exit recurs at scale, or a provisional-PPA/goodwill write-down triggers a re-rating).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -9.6% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 107% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +98.7 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 181/share (143% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 230 | +6% | +81% | 30% | Share-funded roll-up sustains high-single-digit growth without further margin dilution; integration synergies keep expanding EBITDA margin. |
| Base | SEK 180 | -0% | +42% | 45% | Approx. 0% perpetual growth — deliberately flat despite 27% Q1 growth, discounting unresolved PPA/incremental-ROIC uncertainty. |
| Bear | SEK 90 | -19% | -29% | 25% | A Turkey-style distributor-organisation exit recurs at scale, or FY2025/ItWorks! provisional PPA finalises with a goodwill write-down, triggering a re-rating. |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 172 | — | +36% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 240 | 271 | 293 | 330 | 356 | 432 |
| 7.25% | 206 | 231 | 250 | 280 | 302 | 364 |
| 8.00% (base) | 181 | 203 | 218 | 244 | 262 | 315 |
| 8.75% | 162 | 181 | 194 | 216 | 232 | 277 |
| 9.50% | 148 | 164 | 176 | 195 | 209 | 248 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 126.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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9 acquisitions since Jan-2025 (Zurvita, Valentus, Ecosystem, Bodē Pro, Truvy, Xion stake, Sanki, ItWorks!) integrated onto Zinzino's existing IT/logistics stack without margin dilution — EBITDA margin held at 13.3% (11.4% FY2024) through the busiest acquisition year yet.
Core Zinzino goods sell via 6-month auto-renewing subscriptions (Note 2.5, FY p.90); 'key subscription revenue' is cited as the largest growth driver across regions in both FY2025 and Q1 2026.
Zero interest-bearing debt, SEK 889.2m net cash (~19% of market cap), SEK 80m overdraft facility undrawn — funds the M&A pipeline largely via share issuance rather than debt.
Proposed FY2025 dividend SEK 6.00/share, +50% YoY — the 13th consecutive annual dividend, alongside continued double-digit EPS growth (SEK 9.09 vs 4.95, +84%).
Largest deal to date (SEK 290.6m, 100% share-funded) closed 26-Jan-2026, contributed SEK 69.0m (~7.5%) of Q1 2026 revenue and drove North America to 21% of group sales (15% a year earlier).
Zinzino compounds LTM economic profit (+SEK 336.5m) from a debt-free, capital-light direct-sales platform, funding an aggressive but so-far EPS-accretive acquisition roll-up. We rate it BUY, MEDIUM conviction; base target SEK 180 (approx. flat perpetual growth on LTM NOPAT, already conservative against 27% Q1 growth).
The Turkey distributor exit and the mechanical negative-incremental-ROIC/intangible-buildup flags are real, unresolved concerns at streamlined tier — position size should respect that this is 9 acquisitions in 15 months with provisional purchase-price allocations. A full deep-dive is the natural escalation if per-deal PPA finalises adversely or the incremental-ROIC signal persists.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (LTM build: FY anchor + Q1'26 − Q1'25) | 3,536 | Group report — comprehensive profit/loss 📄 p.77 | FY2025 audited total revenue (net sales + other operating revenue) = SEK 3,337.458m, the LTM anchor before adding Q1 2026 and subtracting Q1 2025 (both from the Q1 2026 interim report's own comparative columns). |
| Q1 2026 / Q1 2025 total revenue (LTM quarters) | 922 | Group report — Summary of comprehensive profit/loss 📄 p.16 | Net sales 868,952 + other revenue 53,122 = 922,074 (Q1 2026); comparative Q1 2025 = 688,796 + 34,883 = 723,679. Used directly in the LTM revenue bridge (3,337.5 − 723.7 + 922.1 = 3,535.9). |
| Operating profit / EBIT (LTM build) | 469 | Group report — comprehensive profit/loss 📄 p.77 | FY2025 audited operating profit 410,029; LTM = 410.029 − 70.861 (Q1'25, Q report p.16) + 130.225 (Q1'26, Q report p.16) = 469.393. |
| Tax expense (LTM, effective rate) | -108 | Note 11 — Tax on the profit for the year 📄 p.106 | FY2025 total tax on profit −94,461 vs statutory 20.6% Swedish rate; LTM tax = 94.461 − 14.538 (Q1'25) + 28.381 (Q1'26, both p.16 of Q report) = 108.304, giving an LTM effective rate of 22.5% used to tax adjusted EBIT to NOPAT. |
| Goodwill and intangible-asset movement (Note 20) | 269 | Note 20 — Intangible fixed assets 📄 p.112 | Goodwill grew from 100,377 to 268,638 (thousand SEK) in FY2025, entirely via 'acquisition of Group companies' (174,520) net of FX; Other intangible assets grew to 103,167 including newly acquired distributor-database/brand IP (34,608 acquired in-year) amortized over 10 years. Basis for the SEK 6.8m PPA-type amortization kept in opex (not added back). |
| ItWorks! acquisition of assets (Q1 2026) | 291 | Note 6 — Acquisition of assets and acquired subsidiaries 📄 p.30 | Largest acquisition to date, closed 26 Jan 2026, purchase price SEK 290,613 thousand financed entirely via newly issued shares; preliminary goodwill SEK 106,320 thousand; contributed SEK 69,017 thousand of Q1 2026 revenue. Confirms the equity increase in Q1 2026 was non-cash M&A consideration, not a cash capital raise. |
| Zurvita Inc. asset acquisition (FY2025) | 127 | Note 14 — Acquisition of assets 📄 p.109 | First of FY2025's seven acquisitions; assets acquired for SEK 127,033 thousand (26,829 in newly issued shares, remainder cash), surplus value SEK 86,374 thousand provisionally capitalized (Zeal brand IP, 10-year amortization). Representative of the FY2025 roll-up pattern. |
| Right-of-use assets / lease liabilities (Note 22, immateriality basis) | 38 | Note 22 — Leasing 📄 p.114 | ROU assets 37,994 vs total assets 1,752,524 (FY2025) = 2.2%; confirmed at 2.7% at the Q1 2026 snapshot (63,017 / 2,301,589, Q report p.17). Basis for lease_liabilities_in_ic = false — leases are peripheral office/warehouse/vehicle assets, not the primary operating asset of a direct-sales business. |
| Equity, OCI (Conversion reserves) and NCI — FY2025 close | 707 | Consolidated Balance Sheet — continued 📄 p.80 | Total equity SEK 707,199 thousand at 31/12/2025 (706,300 to parent + 899 NCI); Reserves (accumulated translation OCI) −10,104. Rolled forward to the Q1 2026 snapshot via the changes-in-equity table (Q report p.18). |
| Balance-sheet snapshot used for IC (31/03/2026) | 1,161 | Group report — Summary of financial position 📄 p.17 | Total equity 1,161,372 thousand; cash and bank balances 889,200; no interest-bearing debt line present (only lease liabilities 42,574 long-term + 24,443 current, excluded from IC). This is the snapshot basis for invested_capital. |
| Conversion reserves (OCI) at 31/03/2026 | 2 | Group report — Summary of changes in equity 📄 p.18 | Conversion reserves flipped from −10,104 (FY2025-end) to +1,986 at 31/03/2026 after a +12,090 favourable translation swing in Q1 2026. accumulated_oci = 2.0 MSEK; equity_ex_oci = 1,161.4 − 2.0 = 1,159.4. |
| No interest-bearing debt / undrawn overdraft facility | 0 | Note 3 — Financial risk management, liquidity risk 📄 p.97 | 'The group's good cash flow combined with the lack of liabilities to credit institutions and unutilised credit facilities of SEK 80 million' — confirms interest_bearing_debt = 0; re-confirmed at Q1 2026 (p.12, unutilized overdraft facility SEK 80m unchanged). |
| Depreciation/amortisation split (Q1 2026, PPA-context) | 10.9 | Depreciation, amortization, and impairment losses 📄 p.12 | Q1 2026 D&A of SEK 12.0m comprised SEK 1.1m PP&E depreciation and SEK 10.9m intangible amortization (of which SEK 5.3m is IFRS 16 ROU depreciation) — confirms intangible amortization from the acquisition roll-up is a recurring, non-trivial but not dominant cost, kept in opex per mttssn PPA policy. |
| Defined-contribution-only pension (no DBO) | 14.1 | Note 8 — Employee benefits 📄 p.101 | Pension costs SEK 14,133 thousand FY2025 explicitly labelled 'defined contribution plans' — no defined-benefit obligation, confirming net_pension_liability = 0. |
| Segment split — Zinzino vs Faun Pharma (Note 4) | 3,172 | Note 4 — Segment reporting 📄 p.98 | Two reporting segments: Zinzino (direct-sales, product areas Health/Skincare/Other) and Faun Pharma AS (Norwegian contract-production unit, external customers). Zinzino segment net sales 3,122,692 vs Faun 173,343 (with intra-group elimination −123,841) = consolidated 3,172,194. Confirms Faun is a small, non-dominant contract-manufacturing sleeve, not core to the direct-sales thesis. |