Kongsberg Maritime supplies integrated systems, automation, propulsion and technology for the maritime industry — an asset-light, engineering-led model. The extraction reports an exceptionally high adjusted ROIC (≈51%) and large economic profit (+NOK 3.3B), consistent with a capital-light systems franchise but high enough to warrant verification of the invested-capital base.
If the reported economics are clean, the equity is genuinely attractive: it embeds only ~0.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), with fair value ~30% above the price — a high-return franchise priced for stagnation. The low conviction reflects the data caveat, not a negative view.
On the reverse-DCF, fair value runs NOK 69 (zero growth) to NOK 103 (10% growth) versus the NOK 59 price — i.e. +17% to +75%, with the base case ~+30% at GDP growth. The unusually high ROIC means the perpetuity is conservative; the main risk to the read is invested-capital measurement.
Base NOK 70 (+19%) if economics are clean; bull NOK 90 (maritime-systems demand and margin delivery); bear NOK 50 (a maritime-cycle downturn or an invested-capital re-measurement that lowers the implied ROIC/return).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -9.4% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 51% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +43.4 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 79/share (149% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 90 | +3% | +69% | 35% | Maritime-systems demand + margin delivery |
| Base | NOK 70 | -3% | +32% | 40% | +30% if economics clean; minimal implied growth |
| Bear | NOK 50 | -11% | -6% | 25% | Maritime downturn or IC re-measurement lowers return |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 72 | — | +36% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 109 | 124 | 135 | 152 | 165 | 202 |
| 7.25% | 92 | 104 | 113 | 127 | 138 | 167 |
| 8.00% (base) | 79 | 89 | 97 | 109 | 118 | 142 |
| 8.75% | 69 | 78 | 84 | 95 | 102 | 123 |
| 9.50% | 62 | 69 | 75 | 84 | 90 | 109 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 53.12. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
An asset-light maritime-systems/automation model with high reported returns.
Price embeds only ~0.8% perpetual growth — a large margin of safety if economics are clean.
Decarbonisation, automation and newbuild/retrofit demand support orders.
An installed base supports recurring service and upgrade revenue.
A 6.5% free-cash yield supports the return profile.
Kongsberg Maritime screens as a high-ROIC, capital-light franchise priced for near-zero growth, with the reverse-DCF ~30% above the price. BUY, low conviction; base target NOK 70 (+19%) — sized small pending verification that the unusually high reported ROIC and invested-capital base are clean.
If the economics confirm, conviction would rise materially; the data caveat is the reason for caution, not a negative view of the franchise.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.