Solstad Offshore is a Norwegian offshore-vessel owner (directly owning six CSOV/AHTS vessels post-restructuring) that also holds a 27.3% equity-method stake in Solstad Maritime (~32 PSV/AHTS/CSV vessels). The own operations earn only ~8% adjusted ROIC (≈ WACC, +NOK 12M economic profit), with ROU-asset-heavy chartered tonnage.
Crucially, the Solstad Maritime stake — which delivered ~USD 66M of equity income in FY2025 and is the company's primary value creator — is excluded from NOPAT, so the operating reverse-DCF (−9%) understates the whole. Reported results are also flattered by non-recurring items (a +USD 15.6M deferred-tax-asset recognition and a +USD 4.4M impairment reversal).
On the operating reverse-DCF the own business is roughly fairly valued (NOK 59–60 vs NOK 66), but that excludes the 27.3% Solstad Maritime stake — meaningful unmodeled value plus exposure to the offshore-vessel cycle. The relevant frame is sum-of-the-parts: own vessels at fair value plus the carried SMA stake, adjusted for non-recurring items.
Base NOK 65 (−2%); bull NOK 90 (an offshore-vessel upcycle lifts both own operations and the SMA stake's value); bear NOK 50 (offshore-vessel downturn; non-recurring tailwinds don't repeat).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~7.7%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 59/share (91% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 90 | ≥8% | +39% | 30% | Offshore upcycle lifts own ops + SMA stake value |
| Base | NOK 65 | ≥8% | +1% | 45% | SOTP; own ops fair, SMA stake unmodeled |
| Bear | NOK 50 | -10% | -23% | 25% | Offshore downturn; non-recurring tailwinds fade |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 69 | — | +6% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 98 | 105 | 109 | 116 | 120 | 130 |
| 7.25% | 75 | 79 | 81 | 84 | 85 | 87 |
| 8.00% (base) | 59 | 60 | 61 | 61 | 60 | 57 |
| 8.75% | 46 | 46 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 34 |
| 9.50% | 36 | 35 | 33 | 30 | 27 | 16 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 64.60. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A 27.3% holding (~32 vessels) delivering ~USD 66M equity income — the primary, unmodeled value creator.
Tightening OSV/subsea-support supply could lift dayrates and asset values.
A post-restructuring capital structure with a focused owned fleet.
A 16% free-cash yield (flattered by cycle/non-recurring items).
Modern CSOVs serve offshore-wind and subsea-support demand.
Solstad Offshore is a sum-of-the-parts/offshore-cycle story: thin own operations plus a meaningful, unmodeled 27.3% Solstad Maritime stake, with reported numbers flattered by non-recurring items. HOLD, medium conviction; base target NOK 65 (−2%).
An offshore-vessel upcycle lifting both the own fleet and the SMA stake is the upside; thin own economics and non-recurring tailwinds are the cautions.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.