Vaisala is the global leader in weather, environmental and industrial measurement instruments — a niche, technology-driven franchise with a sticky installed base, recurring calibration/subscription revenue and exposure to climate, renewables and industrial-process megatrends. Adjusted ROIC of 19.4% and a near-net-cash balance sheet reflect quality.
The equity at €53.6 embeds ~5.6% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), reasonable for the franchise but offering no discount. Quality at a full price.
With 19% ROIC the perpetuity floor (~€27–31) understates value; the price embeds ~5.6% growth — fair for a niche technology leader. Own for quality and the structural tailwinds.
Base €53 (flat); bull €65 (weather/renewables/industrial demand plus margin expansion); bear €42 (industrial-demand softness or project delays).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~20.6%, limited by ROIC 22% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is €28/share (52% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €65 | ≥21% | +21% | 30% | Weather/renewables/industrial demand + margin |
| Base | €53 | +20% | -1% | 45% | Fair: ~5.6% implied growth, net cash |
| Bear | €42 | +13% | -22% | 25% | Industrial softness or project delays |
| Prob-weighted | €54 | — | +0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 38 | 42 | 46 | 51 | 54 | 65 |
| 7.25% | 32 | 36 | 38 | 42 | 45 | 53 |
| 8.00% (base) | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 38 | 45 |
| 8.75% | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 39 |
| 9.50% | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 34 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €53.70. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Global leadership in measurement instruments with a clinical-grade reputation.
Calibration, services and subscriptions add sticky, high-margin recurring income.
Weather, renewables and environmental monitoring are structural demand drivers.
A strong balance sheet and high returns fund R&D and dividends.
Process-industry measurement diversifies the demand base.
Vaisala is a high-quality niche instruments leader at a full price. HOLD, medium conviction; base target €53 (flat) — accumulate on industrial-cycle weakness.
Structural climate/renewables demand is the long-run driver; a pullback toward the low-€40s would offer a better entry.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.