Gabriel Holding is a small Copenhagen-listed supplier of acoustic and upholstery textiles and surface materials to furniture and interior OEMs. Continuing FY2024/25 revenue was DKK 516m at an 8.5% EBIT margin — a solid recovery from the prior year — with the loss-making FurnMaster furniture manufacturing arm now held for sale and reported as discontinued.
LTM (period end 2026-03-31) adjusted ROIC of 10.2% clears the 8% WACC for a positive economic profit of ~DKK 7.6m — real but modest value creation, with the spread only ~2pp and a heavy DKK 296.8m gross-debt load (263m drawn facility partly funding the held-for-sale net investment).
The equity story is a balance-sheet clean-up: completing the FurnMaster divestiture and paying down the bank facility is the next re-rating lever. Absent that, this is a low-visibility, illiquid (1.89m shares, ~DKK 525m mcap) cyclical textile supplier with limited moat.
On continuing-ops numbers the equity is fairly-to-fully valued: EV of ~DKK 756m against continuing EBIT of ~DKK 46m is ~16x, and the +DKK 7.6m economic profit leaves a thin quality cushion. There is no observed reverse-DCF panel; on a residual-income view the ~2pp ROIC-WACC spread supports only a modest premium to invested capital — record-based note.
Base DKK 285 (≈flat, modest EP persists); bull DKK 360 (FurnMaster sold cleanly, facility paid down, margin drifts toward the 9-10% guidance high end); bear DKK 200 (furniture-OEM demand softens, divestiture disappoints or the facility weighs on equity value).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~9.7%, limited by ROIC 10% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is DKK 135/share (49% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 360 | ≥10% | +29% | 30% | FurnMaster sold cleanly + facility paid down + margin at guidance high end |
| Base | DKK 285 | ≥10% | +3% | 45% | ≈Flat: modest EP persists, turnaround grinds on |
| Bear | DKK 200 | ≥10% | -28% | 25% | Furniture-OEM demand softens / divestiture disappoints |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 286 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 224 | 249 | 266 | 292 | 311 | 359 |
| 7.25% | 173 | 189 | 201 | 218 | 230 | 260 |
| 8.00% (base) | 135 | 146 | 154 | 165 | 172 | 189 |
| 8.75% | 106 | 114 | 118 | 124 | 128 | 135 |
| 9.50% | 84 | 88 | 90 | 93 | 94 | 94 |
Green = fair value above the current price of DKK 278.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Exiting the held-for-sale furniture arm removes a drag and frees the balance sheet.
Reducing the DKK 263m drawn facility would transfer value back to equity.
Maiden 5.00 DKK/share dividend + Mar-2026 buy-back signal a cleaner, shareholder-focused phase.
Continuing EBIT margin up to 8.6% in H1; guidance 40-55m EBIT leaves recovery headroom.
Adjusted ROIC 10.2% > 8% WACC (+DKK 7.6m EP) — genuine value creation, if thin.
Gabriel is a small, decently-run textile maker mid-turnaround, earning just above its cost of capital and now returning cash for the first time. But the moat is limited, leverage is high and the re-rating depends on a clean FurnMaster exit and facility paydown. We rate it HOLD, low conviction; base target DKK 285 (≈flat).
The better entry is a demand- or leverage-driven pullback toward DKK 200-220; confirmation that FurnMaster is sold and the facility is coming down would be the trigger to revisit conviction.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY continuing revenue 516.0m | 516 | Income statement p.80 (Nettoomsaetning 515.969 tkr) | FY anchor revenue for continuing operations, year ended 2025-09-30; base of the LTM build. |
| FY continuing EBIT 44.1m | 44.1 | Income statement p.80 (Resultat af primaer drift 44.100 tkr) | FY anchor EBIT; combined with H1 legs to form LTM EBIT 45.9m. |
| H1 2025/26 continuing revenue 263.3m | 263 | H1 highlights table p.2 | Current H1 leg added to the LTM build; prior-year H1 261.5m subtracted. |
| H1 2025/26 continuing EBIT 22.7m | 22.7 | H1 highlights table p.2 | Current H1 EBIT leg; prior-year H1 20.9m subtracted -> LTM EBIT 45.9m. |
| Company continuing Invested Capital 352.6m | 353 | H1 highlights table p.2 (Invested capital, continuing) | Anchored as IC base (working capital + tangible + intangible assets, continuing); most recent continuing-ops IC, near-flat vs FY 350.5m. |
| PPA amortisation 3.0m (rejected) | 3 | Note 11 Immaterielle aktiver p.89 (acquired product tech 1.914 + customer relations 1.087) | PPA-type amortisation kept in opex under mttssn methodology; does not lift adjusted EBIT. |
| Goodwill 25.8m, no impairment | 25.827 | Note 11 p.89 / impairment test p.90 | Three CGUs pass value-in-use test with substantial margin; no impairment add-back. |
| FX translation reserve (OCI) -16.1m | -16.124 | Statement of changes in equity p.82 (Reserve for valutakursreguleringer) | Accumulated OCI stripped for equity_ex_oci transparency; not re-applied to the company continuing-IC anchor. |
| Credit-institution debt 296.8m | 297 | Note 20 Kreditinstitutter p.95 (mortgage 33.7 + drawn bank facility 263.0) | Interest-bearing debt on the continuing BS; large drawn facility partly funds the held-for-sale FurnMaster net investment. |
| R&D capitalised 6.9m of 34.2m incurred (20%) | 6.92 | Note 17 Forsknings- og udviklingsomkostninger p.94 | Moderate 20% R&D capitalisation rate, within the industrial band; no aggressive-capitalisation flag or reversal. |