Hacksaw is a B2B iGaming content studio: it develops high-volatility slots and scratchcards and distributes them — plus third-party studios' games via its OpenRGS platform — to operators on a GGR rev-share basis across 40+ licensed markets. The economics are exceptional: 82% adjusted EBIT margin, ~EUR 99M net cash (even after a EUR 116M May dividend), no debt, no goodwill, ~90% FCF conversion. A 354-game back-catalogue is an annuity that funds new launches, and it has already reached >60% of Evolution's RNG revenue at a higher margin.
Adjusted NOPAT of SEK ~1,861M sits on an invested-capital base of just ~SEK 363M (15% of revenue), so ROIC (~510%) is a meaningless artefact — this is an earnings/FCF story. Two live questions frame the thesis: (1) growth durability — Q2 was +31% YoY but only +3% QoQ, largely seasonal/FX (cc growth held 33-37%), yet the market punished decelerating rounds-played; and (2) revenue quality — only ~12% of bets are locally-licensed (~88% .com/grey), with Stake (~20% of revenue) also a ~4% shareholder, against tightening UK/Brazil supplier rules.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of SEK 1,861M at WACC-g and adding SEK 1,100M net cash over 289.2M shares: zero-growth fair value = SEK 84 (price ~72, i.e. ~15% below), 2% = SEK 111 (+54%), 5% = SEK 218. The -12% de-rating means the market now implies slightly NEGATIVE perpetual growth on a 30%+ organic grower — the reverse-DCF margin of safety widened materially versus the LTM Q1 record (where price = FV).
Base SEK 110 (~+54%) on a conservative ~2% terminal in a multi-year high-growth fade; bull SEK 150 if US/regulated expansion sustains 30%+ growth and margins hold; bear SEK 60 (-17%) if growth decelerates structurally, the UK/Brazil regime forces a grey-revenue exit (Evolution read-across), or margins normalise. Consensus target mean SEK ~104; 4 analysts all BUY (Citi 91, Berenberg 95 post-trim).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -10.0% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 513% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +505.0 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 111/share (155% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 150 | +7% | +110% | 35% | US/regulated expansion sustains 30%+ growth, margins hold |
| Base | SEK 110 | -0% | +54% | 45% | ~2% terminal in a high-growth fade; -12% de-rating opened the cushion |
| Bear | SEK 60 | -14% | -16% | 20% | Grey-revenue re-rate/exit (UK/Brazil) or structural deceleration |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 114 | — | +60% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 150 | 172 | 187 | 213 | 232 | 284 |
| 7.25% | 127 | 145 | 158 | 179 | 195 | 238 |
| 8.00% (base) | 111 | 126 | 137 | 155 | 168 | 205 |
| 8.75% | 98 | 111 | 121 | 136 | 148 | 180 |
| 9.50% | 88 | 100 | 108 | 122 | 132 | 160 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 71.40. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
82% adjusted EBIT margin, ~90% FCF conversion — a capital-light cash machine; every growth krona drops through.
+31% reported / +33% cc in Q2 2026, 100% organic; 354-game portfolio, in-house cadence up to 5/month, OpenRGS at 11 partner studios.
After the -12% de-rating, price ~SEK 72 sits ~15% below the SEK 84 zero-growth fair value — the market pays less than nothing for a 30%+ grower.
~EUR 99M net cash after a EUR 116M (81% payout) dividend funds Hacksaw Ventures studio stakes and US/Canada expansion without dilution or debt.
APM divergence 0.0%, no goodwill, no PPA, no SBC add-back — earnings quality as high as the headline margin.
These are the observable events that would break the thesis. We track them in the follow-up notes; if one triggers, the thesis status moves to weakened or closed.
Hacksaw is the rare 'cheap and exceptional' profile made cheaper: a debt-free, net-cash, 82%-margin organic compounder with spotless accounting, now ~15% below its zero-growth reverse-DCF fair value after an in-line Q2 print triggered a ~12% de-rating. We keep BUY, medium; base target SEK 110.
Conviction stays medium — not for anything in the numbers, which remain pristine, but for the two overhangs the re-stream sharpened: the ~88%-grey revenue base into a tightening UK/Brazil supplier regime, and an abrupt CEO dismissal into an interim seat. Watch rounds-played re-acceleration, the permanent-CEO appointment, and regulatory headlines.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM revenue EUR 224,012k | 2,478 | Condensed consolidated income statement, LTM Jul-Jun column 📄 p.8 | Company discloses a clean trailing-12-month column; used directly rather than reconstructing FY - Q + Q. |
| LTM adjusted EBIT EUR 182,911k (82% margin) | 2,024 | Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures, LTM column 📄 p.17 | Reported EBIT EUR 180,736k + IAC EUR 2,175k; mttssn accepts the IAC add-back as genuinely non-recurring, so our adjusted EBIT equals the company's (0% divergence). |
| Items affecting comparability EUR 2,175k (IPO 1,457 + severance 718) | 24.1 | Note 5: Items affecting comparability 📄 p.15 | One-off IPO advisory plus severance to the departed Group CEO - both normalized per mttssn as non-operating. |
| Cash & equivalents EUR 99,413k | 1,100 | Condensed consolidated statement of cash flows, period-end cash 📄 p.11 | Taken from the clean cash-flow statement (the balance sheet renders as rotated text); halved from EUR 176M by the EUR 116M May dividend. |
| Total equity EUR 129,176k, NCI 0 | 1,429 | Condensed consolidated statement of changes in equity, closing balance 2026-06-30 📄 p.10 | Post-dividend equity; NCI eliminated after the minority share-swap buyout, so IC and per-share economics are now on a fully-attributable base. |
| EUR 116M dividend paid (EUR 0.40/sh, 81% of 2025 earnings) | 1,100 | CEO comments / statement of changes in equity 📄 p.2 | Confirms the capital-return posture; drives the cash and equity step-down and lifts IC modestly. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.