General Oceans is a Norwegian holding company of niche subsea-technology brands — Tritech, Klein Marine, Reach Robotics, Nortek and RS Aqua — selling acoustic/environmental sensors, sonar and underwater robotics into marine construction, defense and ocean science. FY2025 revenue grew 34% to NOK 1,280m, largely organic plus a full year of RS Aqua (2025 M&A cash outflow just NOK 0.17m), with Defense +38% and Ocean Science +103%.
The model is capital-light and cash-generative: 18% Sensors EBITA margin, FCF yield 8.3%, R&D ~96% expensed, no goodwill impairment, and adjusted ROIC of 54% against an 8% WACC for EP of +NOK 165m. The March-2026 IPO left ~NOK 760m of net cash — the high ROIC is flattered by that cash being stripped from a thin intangible base, so the business is best valued on earnings and FCF, not the headline return.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of NOK 193.7m at WACC−g and adding NOK 760m net cash over 165.1m shares: fair value NOK 19.3 (zero growth), 25.9 (GDP 2.5%) and 43.7 (5% growth). At NOK 22.4 the market implies only ~1.4% perpetual growth and a 15.2x EV/NOPAT — undemanding for a business compounding ~26% with a defense/ocean-science tailwind.
Base NOK 27 (+20%) on GDP-plus growth as the brand portfolio scales; bull NOK 38 if high-teens organic growth and defense demand persist; bear NOK 18 if growth normalises to GDP and the post-IPO multiple de-rates through lock-up expiry.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -1.5% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 54% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +45.6 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 23/share (105% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 38 | +15% | +70% | 35% | High-teens organic growth + defense demand persist |
| Base | NOK 27 | +4% | +21% | 45% | GDP-plus growth; reverse-DCF fair value as brands scale |
| Bear | NOK 18 | -8% | -20% | 20% | Growth normalises to GDP; post-IPO multiple de-rates |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 29 | — | +30% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 30 | 34 | 36 | 41 | 44 | 52 |
| 7.25% | 26 | 29 | 31 | 35 | 37 | 44 |
| 8.00% (base) | 23 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 38 |
| 8.75% | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 34 |
| 9.50% | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 30 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 22.40. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Adj ROIC 54% vs WACC 8%, EP +NOK 165m — genuine value creation on a capital-light, intangible-heavy brand portfolio.
FY2025 +34% revenue, ~26% 3-yr CAGR; Defense +38%, Ocean Science +103% — broad-based, not acquisition-dependent.
Price implies ~1.4% perpetual growth vs ~26% delivered; fair value 16–95% above NOK 22.4.
~NOK 760m post-IPO net cash funds bolt-on M&A and R&D without dilution; clean covenant headroom.
Naval, coast-guard and research demand for subsea sensing/robotics is structurally rising.
General Oceans is a capital-light, cash-rich ocean-technology compounder creating real economic profit (EP +NOK 165m, ROIC 54% >> WACC) and trading at a reverse-DCF discount that prices in almost no growth. BUY, medium conviction; base target NOK 27 (+20%).
Conviction is held to medium by the short listed record and the cash-flattered ROIC; a clean Q1 2026 interim read and continued organic growth would support an upgrade.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
Post-tax add-backs: Note 15: goodwill and acquired-intangible impairment NOK 0 in both 2025 and 2024. VIU headroom robust; mgmt states no reasonably possible change in key assumptions leads to impairment.
Company add-backs we reject: FY2025 amortisation of acquisition intangibles (customer relationships 18.643 + IP/patents/trademarks 6.905) = NOK 25.548m, kept in opex by mttssn (NOT added back). Company EBITA APM adds this back. SBC NOK 0.495m (share-based payments reserve) also kept in opex.
Invested capital: BS uses Borsdata post-IPO Q1 2026 anchor (equity 1165.1, cash 840.1, net_debt -760.2). IC formula: equity_ex_oci (1089.0) + IB_debt (~79.9 = cash 840.1 - net cash 760.2) + 0 pension + 0 lease (offices, not in IC) - excess_cash (807.5) = 361.4. OCI = FY2025 AR FX reserve NOK 76.109m (Q1 split not separately disclosed). NCI = 0 (100% owner-attributable equity per AR equity-changes table).
Pages read — FY: [1, 3, 4, 44, 45, 47, 48, 65, 66, 76, 77, 78, 81, 82, 86, 87] · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.