Silex is one of a small number of independent, pure-play MEMS contract foundries globally, converting customer design-in projects (51.0% of H1 2026 sales, up from 42.6% a year earlier) into recurring production volume. Growth is broad-based and currently strong: LTM revenue +18.6%, Q2 2026 alone +27.3% (+31.8% FX-adjusted), led by North American telecom/optical-switch and Life Science demand.
The May-2026 IPO (SEK 1bn gross proceeds) and a SEK 750m undrawn RCF fund a defined SEK 1.6bn capacity program through 2030: a ~35% Sweden cleanroom expansion plus, following a binding July-2026 agreement, Silex's first US facility (a converted Onsemi fab in Pennsylvania). Management is explicit the US site will not reach EBIT breakeven before 2029-2030 and will not match the Swedish facility's 2025 economics until 2034 — a long, capital-intensive runway, honestly guided rather than promotionally framed.
Reported quality metrics are elite (adjusted EBIT margin 33.8% LTM, adjusted ROIC 27.5%, net cash), but the record is a streamlined first pass on a company with only 9 quarters of public history, no independently-audited annual report yet on file, and no reverse-DCF computed in the source record — the valuation case below is a rough approximation, not the standard mttssn residual-income panel.
No reverse-DCF exists in the adjustments record (data gap flagged, not filled). A residual-income back-solve (EV - IC = EP / (WACC - g)) on EV SEK 19,906m, IC SEK 1,467m and EP SEK 285m implies the market is pricing roughly 6% perpetual economic-profit growth — plausible given the current 19%+ top-line trajectory, but it leaves no cushion if the capex program slips or margins normalize.
Base SEK 195 (+2.6%) assumes growth normalizes to the high-teens/low-20s% and today's rich ~49x EV/adjusted-NOPAT multiple roughly holds; bull SEK 260 (re-rating as a scarce independent MEMS foundry if the US fab executes ahead of guide); bear SEK 125 (capex-cycle turn, a lost qualification, or US-fab slippage compresses the multiple while capital is mid-deployment).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~26.1%, limited by ROIC 27% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 66/share (35% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 260 | ≥26% | +37% | 30% | US fab conversion executes on/ahead of the 2029-2030 breakeven guide, Sweden +35% capacity ramps smoothly, growth holds 25%+ and margins expand further — market re-rates Silex as a scarce independent MEMS foundry. |
| Base | SEK 195 | ≥26% | +3% | 45% | Growth normalizes toward the high-teens/low-20s%, margins hold near current levels, and the capex program proceeds broadly on the guided multi-year timeline — the current rich multiple roughly holds. |
| Bear | SEK 125 | +21% | -34% | 25% | The semiconductor capex cycle turns, a key customer qualification is lost or delayed, or the US fab ramp slips past 2029-2030 — blended ROIC drags as SEK 1.6bn of capital deploys ahead of matching earnings. |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 197 | — | +4% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 86 | 96 | 103 | 114 | 122 | 145 |
| 7.25% | 75 | 82 | 88 | 97 | 103 | 121 |
| 8.00% (base) | 66 | 72 | 77 | 84 | 89 | 104 |
| 8.75% | 59 | 64 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 91 |
| 9.50% | 54 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 71 | 81 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 190.15. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Design/NRE revenue rose to 51.0% of H1 2026 sales (vs 42.6% H1 2025) — a leading indicator of future production conversions.
North America was 60% of Q2 2026 sales (up from 55% a year earlier), driven by optical-switch demand for AI data centers.
SEK 1bn gross IPO proceeds plus operating cash fund a SEK 1.6bn Sweden+US build-out through 2030.
Adjusted EBIT margin rose to 33.8% LTM from 28.7% FY2025 as higher-margin development revenue outgrows fixed costs.
The Onsemi Pennsylvania fab acquisition (signed 2026-07-07) shortens lead times to Silex's largest customer base and reduces geopolitical/tariff exposure.
Silex is a genuinely high-quality, fast-growing MEMS foundry, but this is a first-pass streamlined read of a company with only 9 quarters of public history, and the SEK 20.9bn market cap already prices in durable ~19%+ growth and margin resilience through a SEK 1.6bn, multi-year US+Sweden capex program.
HOLD, low conviction: no margin of safety at SEK 190, base target SEK 195 (+2.6%). Revisit on the FY2025 Annual Report (customer concentration, audited multi-year history) or a pullback toward the SEK 125-150 bear range.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM/R12 net sales | 1,510 | Condensed consolidated income statement, R12 column 📄 p.11 | Company-computed rolling-12m (Jul 2025-Jun 2026) column used directly as the LTM revenue anchor; no manual quarter roll-forward needed. |
| LTM/R12 EBIT (reported) | 487 | Condensed consolidated income statement, R12 column 📄 p.11 | Reported operating profit before mttssn adjustments; matches the company's own R12 EBIT figure. |
| Non-recurring items add-back (IPO/ownership-change consulting costs) | 23 | Note 9, Non-recurring items table, R12 column 📄 p.21 | Consulting costs tied to the IPO and the July-2025 change of ownership; genuinely one-off, added back pre-tax consistent with the company's own Adjusted EBIT definition — drives our EBIT bridge to exactly match the company's Adjusted EBIT (0% divergence). |
| Intangible assets / goodwill | 0 | Condensed consolidated balance sheet, all 3 periods 📄 p.12 | Zero intangible assets and zero goodwill disclosed at 2026-06-30, 2025-06-30 and 2025-12-31 — no capitalized R&D or M&A-driven goodwill exists to reverse, atypical for the SOFTWARE sector template; Silex is a PP&E-heavy manufacturing foundry. |
| Total equity (IC anchor) | 2,586 | Condensed consolidated balance sheet, 2026-06-30 📄 p.12 | Latest Q-snapshot equity used as the IC base per streamlined methodology (BS values from latest Q, not FY-anchor). |
| Accumulated OCI reserve | 32 | Balance sheet equity section, 'Reserves' line 📄 p.12 | Equity 'Reserves' line represents accumulated translation + cash-flow-hedge reserve (per statement of comprehensive income, H1 2026 CFH fair-value change -16, translation +1); stripped from equity per OCI methodology. |
| Interest-bearing debt | 188 | Note 9, 'Capital employed' reconciliation, 2026-06-30 column 📄 p.21 | Liabilities to credit institutions, current (18) + non-current (170) = 188, cross-checked against the company's own Capital employed build. |
| Lease liabilities (tracked, excluded from IC) | 138 | Balance sheet: current (59) + non-current (79) lease liabilities 📄 p.12 | ROU assets (342) are 9.8% of total assets / 24.6% of non-current assets — not the company's PRIMARY operating asset (owned buildings/machinery/CIP dominate at 1,006) — so lease_liabilities_in_ic=false per the decision rule; IFRS16 lease interest already sits below EBIT regardless, so no NOPAT add-back either way. |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,305 | Balance sheet, 2026-06-30 📄 p.12 | Includes ~SEKm 961 net IPO proceeds received May 2026; only ~2% of LTM revenue (~SEKm 30) treated as operational, remainder (~SEKm 1,275) stripped as excess cash per methodology — see qualitative_flags on why this 'excess' is actually committed growth capital. |
| Effective tax rate | 0.21 | Income statement, R12: tax -101 / PBT 480 📄 p.11 | R12 effective tax rate used to tax-effect adjusted EBIT into adjusted NOPAT. |
| Company Adjusted EBIT (APM) | 510 | Note 9, Adjusted EBIT calculation, R12 column 📄 p.21 | Company's own APM bridge — matches our adjusted EBIT exactly, confirming a clean bridge with no undisclosed adjustments. |
| FY2025 net sales / EBIT (baseline) | 1,385 | Condensed consolidated income statement, Jan-Dec 2025 column 📄 p.11 | Full FY2025 comparative disclosed directly inside the Q2 2026 interim report — used as the FY anchor baseline in lieu of a standalone annual report; the prospectus fallback was not needed. |
| Subsequent event — US fab acquisition | 40 | Significant events after the end of the period 📄 p.2 | Binding agreement dated 2026-07-07 (after period-end) to acquire a Pennsylvania semiconductor fab from Onsemi for USDm 40; not yet in the 2026-06-30 balance sheet but material to forward capital deployment — flagged qualitatively, not modelled into current-period IC. |