Same thesis as HLUN-A.CO. Lundbeck is shifting from legacy antidepressants to a growth profile led by Vyepti (+54% FY2025) and Rexulti. The manual deep-dive shows the true franchise quality: ex-Bexicaserin adjusted ROIC 26.9%, EP +DKK 2.2bn. FY2025 record; Q1'26 EBIT margin 30.2% with raised guidance.
The B-share (HLUN-B.CO) has no voting rights; A-share (HLUN-A.CO) has voting rights. Both carry the same economic exposure to the Bexicaserin binary (DKK 16,584 carrying), the Vyepti/Rexulti growth engines, and the deleveraging story. The B-share typically trades at a small premium to A-share (liquidity premium). At DKK 43, the bear case (Bexicaserin full write-off ~DKK 36) is only 16% below — the option on success is extremely cheap. BUY.
Sum-of-parts identical to HLUN-A: ex-Bexicaserin franchise (26.9% ROIC) at 9-13x adjusted NOPAT, plus probability-weighted Bexicaserin rNPV, less DKK 9.1bn net debt. Base DKK 60 (+40% from DKK 43); bull DKK 80 (Bexicaserin broad DEE label + amlenetug); bear DKK 36 (Phase III failure, ~16% below current). Probability-weighted ~DKK 58.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -13.4% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 14% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +6.2 pp); the no-growth value is DKK 64/share (148% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 80 | +8% | +86% | 25% | Broad Bexicaserin DEE label + amlenetug success |
| Base | DKK 60 | -2% | +40% | 45% | Ex-Bexicaserin franchise (26.9% ROIC) + base Bexicaserin rNPV |
| Bear | DKK 36 | -19% | -16% | 30% | Bexicaserin Phase III fail → full write-off (~DKK 36 ≈ near current B-share price) |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 58 | — | +34% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 90 | 99 | 106 | 117 | 125 | 146 |
| 7.25% | 75 | 82 | 87 | 95 | 101 | 117 |
| 8.00% (base) | 64 | 69 | 73 | 79 | 84 | 95 |
| 8.75% | 55 | 60 | 63 | 68 | 71 | 80 |
| 9.50% | 49 | 52 | 55 | 58 | 61 | 67 |
Green = fair value above the current price of DKK 43.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Ex-Bexicaserin adj ROIC 26.9% — headline 14.2% depressed by zero-earning right.
Bear ~DKK 36 nearly ≈ B-share price; success adds DKK 17/sh from base.
Vyepti +54%, Rexulti +19% FY2025 replacing legacy decline.
ND/EBITDA 1.2x, EUR 1.5bn undrawn RCF.
HLUN-B.CO is the same economic exposure as HLUN-A.CO — the dual-class B-share at DKK 43. At near the bear-case price (~DKK 36 bear), the Bexicaserin option + growing franchise is asymmetrically cheap. BUY; base DKK 60.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill (carrying 31.12.2025) | 7,008 | Not 3.1 Intangible assets | Goodwill carrying 7,008 (cost 7,020 - impairment 12). Down from 7,845 due to FX (-825). The entire group = one CGU (FVLCD); the 2025 annual impairment test found NO goodwill impairment beyond 12 MDKK linked to the Italy divestment. |
| Product rights total (carrying 31.12.2025) | 28,158 | Not 3.1 Intangible assets — carrying amount table | Product rights carrying 28,158 (cost 48,267 - accumulated amort/impair 20,109). Not-yet-commercialized product rights = 18,280 (of which Bexicaserin 16,584 + MAGLi/Lu AG12947 1,324 + other). Largest amortizing: Vyepti 8,497, Rexulti 1,381. |
| Bexicaserin product right (carrying 31.12.2025) | 16,584 | Not 3.1 — 'Description of material product rights / Bexicaserin' | THE BINARY. Acquired fair value 18,729 (Dec 2024); carrying 16,584 (2025) / 19,037 (2024); the decline is SOLELY USD/DKK FX. 'Bexicaserin is not yet commercialized; consequently amortization has not commenced.' ~47% of intangible assets in a not-yet-approved right. See the bexicaserin_npv block. |
| Bexicaserin valuation method (MEEM) | None | Not 5.1 Business combination — valuation method table | 'The fair value of the Bexicaserin product right is determined using an income-based multi-period excess earnings method (MEEM) approach, reflecting the total expected revenues from Bexicaserin sales and the product's estimated economic life.' Underpins the carrying-value valuation and my rNPV engine. |
| Impairment-test discount rate (product rights, pre-tax) | 0.099 | Not 3.1 — '2025 testing outcome' | 'The impairment tests for product rights are based on a weighted average discount rate, pre-tax, of 9.90% (8.34% in 2024).' The key parameter for carrying-value supportability; used in bexicaserin_npv. Key params explicitly include 'probability of success' (p.149). FVLCD, Level 3. Sensitivity: no reasonable change makes carrying > recoverable amount. |
| PPA — intangible assets (final fair value) | 19,255 | Not 5.1 — final PPA / measurement-period adjustment | Longboard PPA finalized 2025 (IFRS 3): intangibles 19,255 = product rights 18,729 (Bexicaserin) + know-how 526. Provisional 16,453 -> final 19,255 (step-up 2,802). 2024 comparatives restated. |
| PPA — goodwill (final) | 1,994 | Not 5.1 — final PPA table | Goodwill down from provisional 3,949 to final 1,994 — the intangible step-up absorbed goodwill (qualitatively better: the consideration sits in identifiable assets). Net identifiable assets 14,596, total consideration 16,590. DTL final 4,621 (from provisional 3,949). Confirms PPA finalization. |
| PPA amortization (FY2025, total intangibles) | 1,483 | Not 3.1 — amortization line | PPA amortization 1,483 (product rights 1,294 + other intangibles 189). By income-statement line (p.148): COGS 1,323 + S&D 20 + Admin 5 + R&D 135 + Other opex 16 = 1,499 (of which 16 is Italy impairment). mttssn KEEPS this in opex (real cost), add-back REJECTED. Bexicaserin does NOT amortize. |
| Special items — Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation (FY2025) | 741 | Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation (Management Review, not audited) | EBITDA 7,140 -> Adjusted EBITDA 7,881 = +741: Integration -28, Restructuring +406, Impairment +635, Divestment 0, Acquisition 0, Other adjustments -272. Underpins the APM bridge (divergence 4.84%). LTM company special items (EBIT level) = 741 - 29 (Q1'25) + 152 (Q1'26) = 864. |
| Restructuring cost (FY2025, partnership model) | 394 | Not 1.2 — 'Change in the commercial operating model' | DKK 394m severance + direct costs, transition to a partner-led model in 27 markets (announced 9 Sep 2025), in 'Other operating expenses, net'. Normalized out (+ Q1'26 152). Genuine one-off cost. |
| Italy impairment (FY2025) | 639 | Not 1.2 — 'Planned divestment of a non-core production site in Italy' | DKK 639m on the board decision in Dec 2025 to divest a non-core Italian production site. Breakdown: Intangibles 16 + PP&E 430 + Inventories 169 + Other 24. FVLCD Level 2. Normalized (post_tax_addbacks). |
| Net interest-bearing debt (bank + bond, 31.12.2025) | 11,185 | Not 4.4 Bank debt, bond debt, and borrowings | FY2025: EUR bank loan 3,734 (Jun 2027, floating 2.69%) + Eurobond 3,728 (Oct 2027, 0.88%) + Eurobond 3,723 (Jun 2029, 3.38%) = 11,185. Down from 16,174 (acquisition peak) — amortized 8,730 out of cash flow. Q1'26: 10,446 (p.22). Net debt/EBITDA 1.2x. |
| Tax — effective rate (FY2025) | 0.289 | Not 2.3 — 'Explanation of the Group's effective tax rate' | PBT 4,487, tax 1,295 -> 28.9%. Lifted by one-off items: prior-year APA adjustment +4.5pp + valuation allowance (partnership/Italy) +3.4pp. Structural normalized ~21-22%. Pillar II 1 MDKK. Danish joint taxation. LTM effective 27.94% in the build. |
| Vyepti revenue (FY2025) | 4,476 | Not 2.1 Revenue — revenue by product | Vyepti 4,476 (+54% vs 2,909) — US 3,908, Europe 395, Intl 173. Growth driver, anti-CGRP migraine, ~10 years amortization left. Q1'26 +47% CER. Core of the ex-Bexicaserin franchise value. |
| Rexulti revenue (FY2025) | 6,205 | Not 2.1 Revenue — revenue by product | Rexulti 6,205 (+19% vs 5,202) — US 5,745, co-marketing Otsuka, ~4 years amortization left. Largest single product. Q1'26 +22% CER. Second pillar of the in-market franchise. Legacy eroding: Brintellix 4,554 (from 4,847), Cipralex 1,955 (from 2,048). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.