Novotek is an asset-light VAR/integrator of industrial-IT and automation software (GE Vernova/Proficy, Kepware, ThingWorx) across the Nordics, UK, Benelux, DACH and France. The moat is deep, decades-long supplier relationships plus local domain expertise; the recent resolution of the GE/PTC supplier overhang into 'Velotic' is a strategically important de-risking. Capital allocation is exemplary — net cash, no leverage, self-funded bolt-ons, a steady ~49% dividend.
Returns are elite on paper (adjusted ROIC ~37%, EP +SEK 31M) but driven by a negligible capital base rather than high margins (EBIT only ~9-10%). The near-term is soft: order intake −5% YoY and Q1 2026 operating margin halved to 6.6% as customers defer/down-size projects amid macro uncertainty. After de-rating from SEK 81 to ~55, it trades at ~7% FCF yield — fair, not cheap, with thin margin of safety at trough profitability.
On adjusted NOPAT capitalised at WACC−g plus net cash, the reverse-DCF base is well above price, but PEBV ~0.94 signals roughly fair value once the trough margin is acknowledged; EV/IC ~4.2x reflects the asset-light model.
Base SEK 65 on an order/margin recovery toward normalised ~9-10% margins; bull SEK 82 if project activity rebounds; bear SEK 50 if the macro project deferral persists and margins stay near 6-7%.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 2.9% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 37% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +29.3 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 73/share (91% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 82 | +4% | +3% | 30% | Project activity rebounds; margins normalise ~9-10% |
| Base | SEK 65 | -4% | -19% | 45% | Gradual order/margin recovery from trough |
| Bear | SEK 50 | -12% | -37% | 25% | Macro project deferral persists; margins near 6-7% |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 66 | — | -17% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 95 | 105 | 113 | 125 | 134 | 160 |
| 7.25% | 82 | 91 | 97 | 107 | 114 | 135 |
| 8.00% (base) | 73 | 80 | 85 | 94 | 100 | 117 |
| 8.75% | 66 | 72 | 76 | 83 | 89 | 103 |
| 9.50% | 60 | 66 | 69 | 75 | 80 | 92 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 79.79. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Adjusted ROIC ~37%, EP +SEK 31M on a tiny capital base — capital-light cash generation.
Decades-long GE Vernova/PTC/Kepware partnerships + local expertise — the distribution moat.
No leverage, self-funded bolt-ons, ~49% payout — downside support.
Resolution of the GE/PTC supplier-software overhang removes a structural uncertainty.
Novotek is an exemplary, net-cash, asset-light automation-software distributor with elite capital-light returns, trading fairly after a de-rating but on trough near-term profitability. HOLD, medium conviction; base SEK 65.
Accumulate on a clear order/margin recovery; the Velotic resolution and net-cash balance sheet underpin the downside.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (total operating income, operating revenue) FY2025 | 513 | Income statement / Note 2-3 📄 p.21 | Summa operating revenue on the consolidated income statement = net sales 502.873 + other operating revenue 9.971. Used as the revenue / operating-income base; LTM adds Q1 2026 122.5 and subtracts Q1 2025 122.2 = 513.144. |
| EBIT (operating profit) FY2025 | 53.073 | Income statement 📄 p.21 | Operating profit on the consolidated income statement, after depreciation/amortisation of 19.420. Clean GAAP EBIT with no company APM add-backs. LTM = 53.073 + 8.1 - 14.3 = 46.873. |
| EBIT Q1 2026 / Q1 2025 (LTM bridge) | 8.1 | Condensed income statement 📄 p.6 | Q1 2026 operating profit 8.1 (Q1 2025 14.3). Confirms the LTM subtraction/addition and the -5.1pp margin fade used in revenue_growth/ebit_margin_change. |
| Goodwill | 133 | Note 12 📄 p.21 | Consolidated balance-sheet goodwill 133.246 MSEK (Q1 2026: 135.4). Spread across nine country CGUs (Note 12), largest Novotek UK & Ireland 56.981. Annual impairment test 31 Dec 2025 found no impairment (pre-tax discount rate 12%, terminal growth 2%). |
| PPA amortisation (acquisition intangibles) FY2025 | 5.622 | Note 12 📄 p.32 | Customer-relationship amortisation 5.545 (10-year life) + other acquired intangibles 0.077 = 5.622 MSEK. Kept in opex (not added back). Internally developed software amortisation 1.090 treated as ordinary cost, not PPA. |
| One-off: acquisition transaction costs (add-back) | 1.5 | Note 27 📄 p.40 | acquisition cost 1.1 MSEK (Venlor / Novotek Automation) + 0.4 MSEK (Premier Tech / Novotek Solution), both booked in other externa kostnader. Genuine non-recurring deal costs -> added back to NOPAT. |
| One-off: bargain-purchase gain (removal) | -0.2 | Note 27 📄 p.40 | Vinst vid acquisition till low pris (negative goodwill -172 kkr) on the Novotek Solution deal, booked as other operating income. Non-operating -> removed from NOPAT. (FY2024's +30.5 MSEK ROB-EX divestment gain is outside the LTM window and not adjusted.) |
| Lease liability (IFRS 16) | 23.849 | Note 6 📄 p.30 | Total lease liability 23.849 (current 10.326 + non-current 13.523). ROU is offices (70% by value) + company cars (74% by count); lease interest 0.851 already below EBIT. Excluded from IC (peripheral assets, asset-light model). The Q1 condensed BS does not split leases, so the FY figure is used. |
| Interest-bearing debt | 1.1 | Condensed BS / FY balance sheet 📄 p.7 | Skulder till kreditinstitut 1.1 MSEK at 2026-03-31 (FY2025-12-31: 1.109, current). No long-term bank debt and no other credit facilities. Net cash position 138.8 MSEK. |
| Cash and equivalents | 140 | Condensed BS 📄 p.7 | Likvida medel 139.9 MSEK at 2026-03-31 (FY2025-12-31: 116.6). Excess cash above 2% of revenue (10.263) = 129.637 stripped from IC. |
| Total equity (incl. NCI) | 244 | Condensed BS / equity statement p.8 📄 p.7 | Eget kapital 243.5 MSEK at 2026-03-31, of which NCI 5.4 (equity to parent 238.1). The 'Reserver' line 7.7 (FX translation + earnout remeasurement) is used as accumulated_oci; equity_ex_oci = 235.8. |
| Tax (effective rate basis) | 7.428 | Note 11 (FY) / condensed IS (Q) 📄 p.6 | LTM tax = FY 8.528 + Q1 2026 2.5 - Q1 2025 3.6 = 7.428 on LTM PBT 43.913 -> effective 16.9%, used as the NOPAT tax rate. FY effective rate 17.3% (nominal 20.6%) reflects a +2.1 MSEK prior-year adjustment and a foreign-rate mix (Note 11). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.