MBR.WA — mttssn research

BUY

Conviction: MEDIUM

A Polish waste operator that genuinely creates value: adjusted ROIC 24.4% vs 8% WACC, economic profit +PLN 61.5M, core EBITDA margin ~41%. Unlike a licence-free niche, hazardous-waste permits and environmental licensing are a real regulatory moat. EV/NOPAT ~15.9x is reasonable for a 24%-ROIC, 30%+ grower; the FY2025 EBIT carries a PLN 65.2M one-off write-down that is a potential write-back tailwind. Lean BUY, medium conviction.

Adj. ROIC

24.4%

WACC 8% → spread +16.4pp

Economic Profit

+PLN 61,544,781M

+PLN 61.5M economic profit; adjusted ROIC 24.4% vs 8% WACC = +16.4pp spread on PLN 375M IC.

FCF Yield

n/a

FCF null in record (streamlined; CF statement deferred), but FY2025 operating cash flow PLN 69M and Q1 2026 PLN 15.4M evidence solid conversion; note the ~PLN 44.9M Eco Point earn-out as a near-term cash claim.

Price / Target

PLN 376 → PLN 430

+15% base; BUY

Revenue (LTM)

PLN 339,327.9B

LTM revenue PLN 339M; Q1 2026 +32.6% YoY; RDF/alternative-fuels segment reportedly >2x — organic + acquisition-led.

EBIT Margin

34.0%

LTM EBIT margin 34.0%, core EBITDA margin ~41%; FY2025 statutory EBIT distorted DOWN by a PLN 65.2M one-off receivable write-down (stripped in adjusted NOPAT) — a potential write-back, not a cash loss.

EV / IC

n/a

Enterprise value / invested capital

Net Debt

n/a

Net debt PLN 134M; net debt/EBITDA ~1.2x (down from ~1.3x at end-2025) — comfortable leverage funding growth.

Thesis

Mo-BRUK processes hazardous and industrial waste, RDF/alternative fuels and solidification/stabilisation in Poland — a permitted, regulated niche where hazardous-waste licences and environmental permits are the entry barrier. Adjusted ROIC of 24.4% against an 8% WACC produces a wide, persistent +16.4pp spread and PLN 61.5M of economic profit on a modest PLN 375M capital base: genuine value creation, not just a cheap multiple.

Growth is compounding organically and by acquisition. Q1 2026 revenue rose +32.6% YoY to PLN 79.0M with EBIT +33.4%, core EBITDA margin ~41%, and RDF/alternative-fuels revenue reportedly more than doubling; the Oct-2025 Eco Point deal extends the permitted footprint into oil-contaminated waste and northern Poland.

The FY2025 statutory EBIT is depressed by a PLN 65.2M one-off — a 100% write-down of a disputed 'Increased Fees' receivable that Mo-BRUK paid to settle while continuing to litigate. That cash (plus interest) is refundable if the courts side with the company, so the distortion is a potential future write-back, not a permanent cash loss — reported optics understate the run-rate.

Valuation · reverse-DCF & scenarios

On LTM adjusted NOPAT of PLN 91.5M and EV of PLN 1,453M the stock trades at EV/NOPAT ≈ 15.9x. For a 24%-ROIC business still compounding revenue at 30%+ that is fair-to-modestly-cheap rather than expensive; a re-rate to ~18x on continued Eco Point accretion and RDF volume, plus mid-teens NOPAT growth, frames the base.

Base PLN 430 (+15%) on an EV/NOPAT re-rate toward ~18x with growing NOPAT; bull PLN 540 (Eco Point accretion + RDF volumes + the PLN 65.2M receivable written back); bear PLN 300 (−20%: waste pricing/volume softens and earn-out/integration drag compresses returns).

Market-implied growth

≥-50.0%

model ceiling — EV implies more than constant-ROIC sustains

No-growth value / share

PLN 400,726,381

106718078% of price; rest = priced-in growth

ROIC − WACC

+16.4 pp

ROIC 24.4% vs WACC 8.0% — positive = value creation

CAP (priced-in)

0.0 yrs

years of excess returns the price implies (fades to WACC)

At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 24% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is PLN 400,726,381/share (106718078% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.

Scenario	24m target	Impl. g	Upside	Prob.	Driver
Bull	PLN 540	≥-50%	+44%	35%	Eco Point accretion + RDF volume + PLN 65.2M write-back
Base	PLN 430	≥-50%	+15%	45%	EV/NOPAT re-rate toward ~18x with growing NOPAT
Bear	PLN 300	≥-50%	-20%	20%	Waste pricing/volume softens + earn-out/integration drag
Prob-weighted	PLN 442	—	+18%	100%	Scenario-weighted expected value

Sensitivity — fair value / share at WACC × growth

WACC \ g	0%	3%	5%	8%	10%	15%
6.50%	545,775,830	610,658,332	657,660,302	734,168,592	789,409,856	943,544,728
7.25%	461,840,320	513,751,299	551,243,466	612,092,982	655,904,093	777,670,335
8.00% (base)	400,726,381	443,288,949	473,932,252	523,512,047	559,102,077	657,607,831
8.75%	354,220,983	389,750,585	415,245,344	456,359,626	485,778,632	566,841,469
9.50%	317,630,836	347,695,837	369,193,573	403,741,154	428,377,073	495,934,797

Green = fair value above the current price of PLN 375.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.

Method & data. NOPAT PLN 91,544,861, invested capital and ROIC 24.4% are observed (adjustments.json); WACC 8.0% and terminal g 2.5% are assumptions. EV→equity uses net debt PLN 134. The model holds ROIC constant (no fade) over the explicit horizon; the CAP figure instead fades excess returns to WACC.

⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.

Key drivers

1. Above-WACC returns

Adjusted ROIC 24.4% vs 8% WACC, EP +PLN 61.5M — real economic value on a small IC base.

2. Permit/licensing moat

Hazardous-waste permits and environmental licensing gate the regional niche; entry needs licences, not just capital.

3. RDF/organic momentum

Q1 2026 revenue +32.6%, RDF/alternative-fuels reportedly >2x — structural landfill-diversion demand.

4. Eco Point accretion

Oct-2025 acquisition extends into oil-contaminated waste and northern Poland; earn-out aligns to delivered EBITDA.

5. One-off write-back option

The PLN 65.2M receivable is refundable with interest if courts rule for Mo-BRUK — a non-priced tailwind.

Key risks

Acquisition goodwill/PPAGoodwill jumped 20.3M→69.7M on a provisional Eco Point PPA; finalisation could add intangible amortisation.
Earn-out cash claim~PLN 44.9M earn-out tied to Eco Point EBITDA targets — a near-term balance-sheet cash call to fund.
Waste pricing/volumeGate fees and processed volumes are cyclical/regulatory; softness would compress the ROIC spread.
Regulatory/permit riskThe moat is licence-based — a permit loss or national gate-fee/tariff change cuts both ways.
Integration & scaleSmall equity base; a mis-executed acquisition or lost litigation would hit returns disproportionately.

Conclusion

Mo-BRUK is a genuine value creator — 24.4% ROIC vs 8% WACC, +PLN 61.5M economic profit, ~41% core EBITDA margin — trading at a reasonable ~15.9x EV/NOPAT with a real, permit-based moat behind it. Lean BUY, medium conviction; base target PLN 430 (+15%).

The principal watch-items are acquisition-led goodwill, the ~PLN 44.9M earn-out and the provisional Eco Point PPA; the PLN 65.2M receivable write-down is a potential write-back tailwind, and a pullback toward the low-300s would offer a stronger entry.

Footnote evidence & sources

Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open

Adjustment / figure	Value	Source	Why mttssn treats it this way
One-off add-back (legal-dispute write-down + asset write-off)	54,518,300	Note 8 Material events / p.14 one-off bridge 📄 p.14	Company's own ex-one-off bridge isolates PLN 52.3M receivable write-down (Other operating costs) + PLN 2.2M ZOMW asset write-off; both non-operating, stripped from EBIT.
FY2025 reported operating profit	55,029,656	Consolidated statement of profit and loss 📄 p.22	Statutory FY2025 EBIT anchor before one-off reversal.
FY2025 revenue	319,897,786	Consolidated statement of profit and loss 📄 p.22	FY anchor revenue for LTM roll-forward.
Goodwill (Eco Point acquisition)	69,747,889	Note 2.1 Goodwill and intangibles 📄 p.58	PLN 49.5M goodwill added Oct-2025 from Eco Point; provisional PPA, no impairment — confirms no PPA-amortization add-back.
Q1 2026 revenue	79,024,548	Consolidated statement of profit and loss 📄 p.7	Current-quarter revenue added in LTM (+32.6% YoY).
Q1 2026 operating profit	22,766,823	Consolidated statement of profit and loss 📄 p.7	Current-quarter EBIT added in LTM (no one-offs in the quarter).
Q1 2025 operating profit (subtracted)	17,068,881	Consolidated statement of profit and loss (comparative) 📄 p.7	Prior-year comparative quarter removed in LTM roll.
Total equity (2026-03-31)	231,426,083	Consolidated statement of financial position 📄 p.6	IC snapshot equity base; NCI 2.17M carried within.
Interest-bearing credit & loans (2026-03-31)	85,288,849	Consolidated statement of financial position 📄 p.6	NC 64.9M + C 20.4M credit and loans; added to IC.
Lease liabilities (2026-03-31)	78,830,060	Consolidated statement of financial position 📄 p.6	NC 70.1M + C 8.8M; capitalized in IC (core plant/land leases).
Cash and equivalents (2026-03-31)	29,833,927	Consolidated statement of financial position 📄 p.6	Excess cash (cash - 2% of LTM revenue) subtracted from IC.

Quality · Buffett tenets12 / 15

Understandable business●●●

Polish waste operator: RDF/alternative fuels, hazardous & industrial waste, solidification/stabilisation. Simple, cash-generative processing of a regulated waste stream — no exotic economics.

Durable moat●●○

[immateriella + efficient scale · stabil→vidgas] hazardous-waste permits and environmental licensing gate the niche; adjusted ROIC 24.4% vs WACC 8% = +16.4pp spread persisting on a PLN 375M IC base, and Eco Point was BOUGHT (not built) — evidence entry needs a licensed platform, not greenfield. Falsifierare: permit revocation, a national gate-fee/tariff cut, or a well-capitalised entrant replicating the licensed processing footprint.

Management & capital allocation●●○

[allokering · candor] Oct-2025 Eco Point deal (PLN 46M price) lifted goodwill 20.3M→69.7M with a provisional IFRS 3 PPA and ~PLN 44.9M earn-out tied to acquired EBITDA; net debt/EBITDA held at ~1.2x. Candor is fair — the 100% write-down of the disputed PLN 65.2M receivable was disclosed and bridged. Röd flagga: acquisition-led goodwill + un-finalised PPA + earn-out cash claim on a still-small equity base.

Financial strength & returns●●●

Adjusted ROIC 24.4% vs 8% WACC (+16.4pp), EP +PLN 61.5M, core EBITDA margin ~41%; net debt PLN 134M, net debt/EBITDA ~1.2x — comfortable leverage funding growth without stress.

Valuation margin of safety●●○

EV/NOPAT ≈ 1453/91.5 ≈ 15.9x for a 24%-ROIC, 30%+ grower is reasonable, not cheap — modest re-rate + write-back optionality, not a deep discount.