Saga Furs is the dominant surviving global fur auction house: it sorts, grades and brokers mink, fox and Finnraccoon pelts through three auctions a year, earning commissions plus quasi-operating interest on producer advances and buyer receivables (LTM ~+€2.6M below EBIT). LTM revenue €49.8M and EBIT €6.2M (12.4% margin) produce adjusted ROIC of 10.0% and economic profit of +€1.0M against an 8% WACC.
The LTM window is carried almost entirely by one exceptional event: the record March 2026 auction (brokerage sales value €227M, +126% yoy; mink prices +76%, fox +40%, all pelts sold to >500 buyers). The FY2025 anchor produced EBIT of just €1.4M on a 3.3% margin — the through-cycle earnings power is materially below the LTM print, and management itself flags that buyers will be more price-selective in coming auctions.
What makes the name investable at all is the balance sheet: €54.6M cash against €14.1M interest-bearing 'debt' that is mostly producer settlement deposits at 0–1.5%, zero goodwill, no defined-benefit pensions, and a 74% equity ratio. Net cash of ~€41M backs ~80% of the €51M market cap, leaving an enterprise value of ~€10M — roughly 2x spike-level NOPAT and ~5x a conservative through-cycle estimate.
At €14.50 the market pays ~€10M of enterprise value for the operating business. Capitalising LTM NOPAT of €5.0M would flag large upside, but that capitalises one record auction; on a conservative through-cycle NOPAT of ~€2–3M (between the weak FY2025 anchor and the LTM spike), EV/NOPAT of ~4–5x plus the cash pile brackets the price. The cash itself needs a haircut in the mind: part of it is auction settlement float mirrored by producer deposits, and it swings hard around the auction calendar.
Base €15.50 (+7%): the June/September 2026 auctions confirm partial persistence of the new price level, through-cycle EBIT settles around €3M, dividend (€0.72, ~5% yield) held. Bull €21: Chinese garment demand adapts fully, mink pricing proves structural on contracted global supply, €5–6M NOPAT recurs and the market re-rates the cash. Bear €10: buyers balk at the new price level, economics revert toward the loss-adjacent FY2025 anchor and the cash floor erodes with float swings and operating losses.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 10% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is €31/share (211% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €21 | -41% | +45% | 25% | New pelt price level proves structural; €5–6M NOPAT recurs |
| Base | €16 | ≥-50% | +7% | 45% | Partial persistence; through-cycle EBIT ~€3M + cash backing |
| Bear | €10 | — | -31% | 30% | Buyers balk at new prices; reversion toward weak FY2025 economics |
| Prob-weighted | €15 | — | +5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 37 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 44 | 47 |
| 7.25% | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 40 |
| 8.00% (base) | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| 8.75% | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 9.50% | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €14.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Brokerage sales €227M (+126% yoy), mink +76%, fox +40%, all offered pelts sold to >500 buyers.
1 April 2026 upgrade repeated in H1: full-year brokerage sales, turnover and profit 'substantially higher' than FY2025.
Global fur production is shrinking and concentrating — the price spike is partly a structural supply story that favours the surviving auction platform.
~€41M net cash vs €51M market cap; €0.72/share dividend on a fortress 74% equity ratio.
Quasi-operating net financial income (~€2.6M LTM) on producer/buyer balances sits below EBIT — reported EBIT understates auction-house earnings power.
Saga Furs screens as deep value — EV ~2x LTM NOPAT with net cash covering ~80% of the market cap — but the earnings leg of the thesis rests on one record auction in a secularly declining industry, and the cash leg is partly auction float. Rated through-cycle, the ROIC−WACC spread is thin to negative outside spike periods. HOLD, low conviction; base €15.50 (+7%) on partial price-level persistence.
The June and September 2026 auctions are the catalysts: confirmed pelt pricing near March levels with buyers still clearing the offering would move the through-cycle earnings estimate — and the recommendation — up; a demand air-pocket at the new price level would send the name back toward its cash floor.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 FY2026 revenue 21.097 / EBIT 1.368 (comparatives H1 FY2025: 13.554 / -3.449) | 21.097 | Konsernin laaja tuloslaskelma, p.10 | LTM flow items = FY2025 anchor + H1 FY2026 - H1 FY2025; comparatives taken from the same statement. |
| FY2025 revenue 42.286 / EBIT 1.383 (anchor) | 42.286 | Konsernin laaja tuloslaskelma, annual report p.32 | FY anchor for LTM construction; broken fiscal year Nov 2024 - Oct 2025. |
| Total equity 89.165 at 30.4.2026 | 89.165 | Konsernitase, p.9 | IC uses the latest balance-sheet snapshot (30.4.2026), not the FY anchor. No NCI; translation reserve 0.183 immaterial (<1% of equity). |
| Interest-bearing debt 14.109 (ST korolliset velat 13.325 + LT velat 0.784) | 14.109 | Konsernitase, p.9; composition per FY Note 10 | Included in IC. Dominated by producer settlement deposits (12.319 at FY-end, 0-1.5% interest) — auction float, not bank leverage; IFRS 16 lease liabilities (~1.0) are embedded here, so leases are in IC without double counting. |
| Cash and equivalents 54.564; excess cash 53.567 stripped from IC | 54.564 | Konsernitase, p.9 | operational_cash capped at 2% of LTM revenue (0.997); the rest is not deployed operating capital. Cash is partly auction settlement float mirrored by producer deposits on the debt side. |
| Intangibles 7.672 at FY-end — zero goodwill | 7.672 | Note 2 Aineettomat hyödykkeet, annual report pp.41-42 | Saga trademarks/domains 1.512 + software 5.955 (new ERP, 6.231 reclassified from prepayments in FY2025) + prepayments 0.204. No goodwill, no capitalized R&D — no reversal needed. |
| D&A only, zero impairments (FY2025: -4.385) | -4.385 | Note 19 Poistot ja arvonalentumiset | Confirms no impairment add-backs; ROU depreciation 2.277 within D&A (IFRS 16 leases modest). |
| Company APM = plain operating profit | 6.2 | Toimintasegmentit note | 'Yhtiö käyttää liikevoittoa arvioidessaan liiketoimintojen kannattavuutta' — no adjusted-EBIT APM exists; bridge is an identity at LTM EBIT 6.200. |