SJF Bank (formerly Sparekassen Sjaelland-Fyn) is a 200-year-old Danish regional savings-bank-turned-bank — ~30 branches, ~160k customers across Zealand and Funen, single ordinary share class. It is fortress-capitalised (CET1 20.3%, total capital 24.4% vs a ~9.7% requirement), with a low cost of risk and improving cost/income. ROE is ~12.8% (LTM; FY2025 ~12.3-12.7%, normalized 12.5%), giving residual income +DKK 105m over a 10.5% (deliberately elevated, small-bank) cost of equity — a +2.3pp spread.
On equity multiples it is cheap: 1.14x book, 1.16x tangible and 9.2x earnings, with a ~3.3% dividend yield. On a normalized 12.5% ROE the Gordon fair P/B is ~1.27x -> ~DKK 367 (+11%). The practical caveat is liquidity — it is a thinly-traded Nasdaq Copenhagen mid-cap, so the indicative price is not transactable at scale. A cheap, fortress-capitalised regional bank; value with a liquidity asterisk.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10.5%, g 3%: a normalized 12.5% ROE -> ~1.27x -> ~DKK 367 (+11%). Current 1.14x book, 9.2x earnings, ~3.3% yield — a clear discount.
Base DKK 367 (normalized-ROE fair value); bull DKK 410 if ROE holds ~13% + cost/income keeps improving; bear DKK 290 on credit normalization + a de-rate (or simply liquidity-driven price gaps).
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 10.9% vs 12.1% currently earned; at a sustained 12.1% ROE the warranted P/B is 1.21× (DKK 380/sh, +15%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 410 | 13% | +24% | 35% | ROE holds ~13%; cost/income keeps improving |
| Base | DKK 367 | 12% | +11% | 45% | Normalized-ROE Gordon fair value |
| Bear | DKK 290 | 10% | -12% | 20% | Credit normalization + de-rate (or liquidity gaps) |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 367 | — | +11% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.00% | 367 | 577 | 787 | 997 | 1207 | 1417 | 1627 |
| 9.75% | 327 | 513 | 700 | 886 | 1073 | 1259 | 1446 |
| 10.50% (base) | 294 | 462 | 630 | 798 | 966 | 1134 | 1301 |
| 11.25% | 267 | 420 | 572 | 725 | 878 | 1030 | 1183 |
| 12.00% | 245 | 385 | 525 | 665 | 805 | 945 | 1085 |
Green = fair value above the current price of DKK 330.00. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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CET1 20.3% / total 24.4% — ~8pp surplus, very safe.
1.14x book / 9.2x earnings — a discount for a ~12.8% ROE.
Improving efficiency lifts the ROE.
Benign loan losses.
SJF Bank is a cheap (1.14x book / 9.2x earnings), fortress-capitalised (CET1 20.3%) 200-year-old Danish regional bank, ~+11% to a normalized-ROE Gordon fair value. BUY/value; base DKK 367.
Own it for the discount + capital strength; the practical constraint is thin liquidity — size + execute carefully.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income (LTM) | 927 | Hovedtal - Resultatposter p.5 (interim) + FY anchor p.7 (annual) | Core revenue line for a bank; LTM = Q1'26 234.1 + FY2025 921.1 - Q1'25 228.5 = 926.6. NII fell ~4% in FY2025 on lower Danish policy rates but stabilised QoQ (+2% YoY in Q1 2026). |
| Net fee & commission income (LTM) | 651 | Hovedtal - Nettogebyrindtaegter p.5 | LTM net fee income = 181.5 + 638.7 - 169.2 = 651.0. Growing on higher mortgage-intermediation (Totalkredit/DLR) guarantee commissions and asset-management activity (+7% YoY Q1 2026). |
| Core income (basisindtaegter, LTM) | 1,740 | Hovedtal - Basisindtaegter p.5 | Total core/operating income incl. NII, net fee, share dividends, sector-share value regulation and other op income. LTM = 460.6 + 1,730.7 - 450.9 = 1,740.4; essentially flat as rate-driven NII pressure offsets fee growth. |
| Net profit to common shareholders (LTM) | 579 | Egenkapitalopgoerelse p.22-23 (interim) - attributable to parent ex-AT1 | Group net profit less AT1 hybrid coupon. LTM = Q1'26 175.6 + FY2025 575.0 - Q1'25 171.4 = 579.2. Group net (incl. hybrid) LTM = 615.0; the ~36/yr AT1 coupon is the bridge. This is the figure used for EPS and ROE. |
| Profit before tax (LTM) | 836 | Hovedtal - Resultat foer skat p.5 | Pre-tax profit (after credit losses and value adjustments). LTM = 235.2 + 771.3 - 230.0 = 836.5. FY2025 pre-tax 771.3 (down from the 2024 record 814.8). |
| Total common equity ex-hybrid (31 Mar 2026) | 4,689 | Balance - Egenkapital ekskl. hybrid kernekapital p.21 | The bank common-equity invested-capital base. Total IFRS equity 5,100.5 = common ex-hybrid 4,688.6 + AT1 hybrid 411.96. Down slightly from 4,733.9 at 31 Dec 2025 on the DKK 11/share dividend paid in Q1. |
| AT1 hybrid core capital (31 Mar 2026) | 412 | Balance - Hybrid kernekapital p.21 | AT1 instrument inside total equity per Danish GAAP; excluded from common equity, BVPS and EPS. Coupon (~36/yr) charged below group net profit. |
| Intangible assets | 91.2 | Balance - Immaterielle aktiver p.21 | No goodwill; DKK 91.2m of other intangibles (software etc.), unchanged across periods. Deducted from common equity to reach tangible common equity 4,597.4 for ROTCE / P-TBV. |
| ROE after tax (FY2025, reported) | 0.123 | Noegletal - Egenkapitalforrentning efter skat p.10 | Bank return measure. Reported after-tax RoE 12.3% (key-figures basis); 12.7% on opening equity (management). Our LTM ROE 12.83% on average common equity. Five-year RoE 12.4/9.4/13.1/13.5/12.3%. |
| Common equity tier 1 ratio (CET1) | 0.203 | Noegletal - Egentlig kernekapitalprocent p.10 (FY) + Note 17 p.34 (Q1) | Regulatory capital strength. CET1 (egentlig kernekapitalprocent) 20.3% at 31 Dec 2025; 19.1% at 31 Mar 2026 ex period result (would be ~19.8% incl. running profit). Capital requirement (Pillar 1+2) 9.7% -> very large surplus. Total capital ratio 24.4% FY2025 / 23.7% incl. running profit Q1. |
| Cost/income ratio (FY2025) | 0.584 | Basisindtjening - Omkostningsprocent p.12 | Reported C/I 58.4% in FY2025, inflated by ~DKK 65m of one-offs (rebrand to SJF Bank, new Carlsberg Byen area centre, severance) - adjusted ~52%. Q1 2026 C/I improved to 49.9% (below the 'Mod nye maal' sub-50% target), helped by -7% YoY costs. Higher cost base than a Nordic megabank. |
| Loan impairments (FY2025) | 20.2 | Hovedtal - Nedskrivninger paa udlaan mv. p.9 | Low cost of risk: impairment charge DKK 20.2m in FY2025 (down from 44.6m in 2024); impairment ratio ~0.1%. Management overlay reserves of DKK 154.2m (~1.0% of loans) provide a conservative buffer / potential hidden reserve. Q1 2026 charge +4.3m (still negligible). |
| Shares outstanding (in circulation, 31 Mar 2026) | 16,198,954 | Note 13 - Aktiekapital p.32 | 16,542,223 shares issued (nominal DKK 10, single class) less 343,269 treasury = 16,198,954 in circulation. A further 313,273 treasury shares cancelled 20 Apr 2026 (post-period). Used for BVPS, EPS, P/B and market cap. Reproduces the report's BVPS of 289.4 exactly. |
| Book value per share (indre vaerdi, 31 Mar 2026) | 289 | Noegletal - Indre vaerdi pr. aktie p.7 | Reported book value per share DKK 289.4 at 31 Mar 2026 (291.7 at 31 Dec 2025), on common equity ex-hybrid / shares in circulation. P/B 1.14x at DKK 330; P/TBV 1.16x. |
| Dividend per share FY2025 | 11 | De vaesentligste resultater - Udlodning p.6 | Proposed/paid ordinary dividend DKK 11.00/share for FY2025 (vs 10.0 for 2024) - highest since the 2015 IPO. Policy: min. 25% of net profit after tax and AT1 coupons + buybacks. Yield 3.33% on DKK 330. |
| Share price (end Q1 2026, reported) | 308 | Noegletal - Boerskurs ultimo perioden p.7 | Report's own 31 Mar 2026 close DKK 308.5 (FY2025 year-end 373.0). Current verified price ~DKK 330 (~9 Jun 2026) used for live multiples; thinly traded so indicative. |
| Total capital ratio (FY2025) | 0.244 | Noegletal - Kapitalprocent p.10 | Total capital ratio 24.4% (own funds 4,793 / REA 19,629) at 31 Dec 2025; MREL/NEP capital ratio 28.7%. Q1 2026 total 23.1% ex period result (23.7% incl. running profit). Fortress capital position vs a 9.7% requirement. |
| Total equity incl. hybrid (31 Mar 2026) | 5,100 | Balance - Egenkapital i alt p.21 | Total IFRS equity DKK 5,100.5m (5,144.6 at 31 Dec 2025); splits into common ex-hybrid 4,688.6 + AT1 hybrid 411.96. Stored for completeness; ROE/BVPS use the common ex-hybrid figure. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.