Dedicare places nurses, doctors and social workers across Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland — an asset-light, no-pricing-power business with >90% public-sector customers, so margins swing with procurement cycles. FY2025 was a structural margin reset: EBIT margin fell to 2.85% (from 6.96% in 2021), demand dropped up to 50% in places, and the Board cut its long-term EBITA-margin target to 6.0%.
The valuation case is real but qualified. PEBV 0.80, a reverse-DCF fair value ~57% above the price, net cash and a covered dividend make it screen cheap. But the 5-year incremental ROIC of ≈ −1.1% means the capital deployed since 2021 earns below cost — the cheapness compensates for a deteriorating, low-moat franchise, not a hidden compounder.
On adjusted NOPAT of SEK 35.7M capitalised at WACC−g plus SEK 117M net cash over 9.56M shares, fair value runs ~SEK 66 (zero growth) to ~SEK 70 (GDP) versus SEK 45 — a genuine discount, corroborated by PEBV 0.80 and the company's own ~13% ROCE. The market prices ~14% perpetual decline.
Base SEK 58 (+30%), haircutting the optimistic reverse-DCF for the negative incremental-ROIC trajectory; bull SEK 72 on a staffing-cycle recovery and the Q1 Sweden rebound (+22.6%); bear SEK 42 if public-procurement weakness and margin compression persist.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -19.6% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 15% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +7.2 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 67/share (149% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 72 | +4% | +61% | 30% | Staffing cycle recovers; Q1 Sweden rebound extends |
| Base | SEK 58 | -7% | +30% | 45% | Cheap but low-quality; incremental ROIC stays negative |
| Bear | SEK 42 | -23% | -6% | 25% | Public-procurement weakness + margin compression persist |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 58 | — | +30% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 86 | 93 | 99 | 107 | 113 | 130 |
| 7.25% | 75 | 80 | 84 | 91 | 95 | 108 |
| 8.00% (base) | 67 | 71 | 74 | 79 | 83 | 92 |
| 8.75% | 60 | 64 | 66 | 70 | 73 | 80 |
| 9.50% | 56 | 58 | 60 | 63 | 65 | 71 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 44.70. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
PEBV 0.80, ~57% reverse-DCF upside, net cash — a real valuation discount for a profitable, dividend-paying business.
Sweden +22.6%, underlying EBITA margin 3.0% — the first sign the demand trough is passing.
Net cash SEK 117M, 48.8% equity ratio, DKK loan fully repaid — downside protection and dividend cover.
Largest Nordic healthcare-staffing player — modest cost/coverage advantage in a fragmented market.
Dedicare is a cheap, well-capitalised, low-moat staffer whose valuation discount is justified by a deteriorating returns trajectory rather than mispricing. Positive EP and PEBV 0.80 keep it interesting; the negative incremental ROIC keeps it from a Buy. HOLD, medium conviction; base SEK 58 (+30%).
An upgrade needs durable margin/volume stabilisation (the Q1 Sweden rebound, extended) that turns incremental ROIC positive again.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
NOPAT adjustments: LTM sum of items affecting comparability/one-offs = +5.5 MSEK (we normalize out negative one-off costs). Composed of: (a) FY2025 -4.1 MSEK which the Q1 report (p.14, footnote 1) specifies exactly: organizational change in the Norway segment -2.7, restructuring costs -0.9, acquisition costs (WeCare) -0.5; PLUS (b) Q1 2026 -1.4 MSEK restructuring costs (Sweden/Denmark, Q1 report p.6), MINUS (c) Q1 2025 0.0 (no one-off items). LTM bridge: -4.1 (FY) - 0.0 (Q1 2025) + (-1.4) (Q1 2026) = -5.5; add-back +5.5. This is the staffing cycle's cost-adjustment program (~20 MSEK 2024, double that in 2025 per the CEO statement). IMPORTANT: the annual report's income statement and segment note (Note 2) do NOT separately disclose these items - they appear only in the Q1 2026 report's FY2025 comparative column and footnote. mttssn does NOT add back PPA amortization (see company_addbacks_we_reject). IFRS 16: the lease interest (-2.0 MSEK, Note 14) already sits below EBIT, no NOPAT add-back.
Post-tax add-backs: No impairment during the period. Goodwill testing as of 2025-12-31 (Note 13) found no impairment need for any CGU (Norway/Denmark/Sweden/UK), even after sensitivity analysis (-3pp growth, -1pp margin, +1pp discount rate). No impairments in Q1 2026 (Note 2 Q report).
Company add-backs we reject: PPA amortization (amortization of fair-value step-ups from acquisitions: customer contracts + databases) LTM approx 5.9 MSEK (FY2025 6.5 [customer contracts 3.816 + database 2.719, Note 13] - Q1 2025 approx 2.3 + Q1 2026 approx 1.7). The company defines EBITA = operating profit before amortization/impairment of intangible assets (APM p.155) and builds the bridge EBITA 50.5 -> EBIT 41.4 solely via -9.1 MSEK total intangible amortization (of which PPA 6.5 + internally developed systems 2.6). mttssn does NOT ACCEPT this PPA add-back - the customer relationships are consumed and must be replaced, so the amortization is a real economic cost. IMPORTANT: the company's 'EBIT adjusted for items affecting comparability' (45.5 FY / 46.1 LTM) does NOT add back PPA - it sits at the EBITA level separately. Therefore our adj EBIT matches the company's EBIT-adj exactly (APM divergence 0%). SBC: no incentive programs exist (Q1 report p.12: 'No incentive programmes have been created') -> 0.
Invested capital: BS snapshot as of 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026, Q report p.15). total_equity = 306.8 MSEK. interest_bearing_debt = 0: the only external loan (DKK-denominated bank loan, parent company) was finally repaid in Q1 2025 (-14.8 MSEK, Q report p.7+16) -> the company is in NET CASH (cash 116.6 vs interest-bearing debt 0). The Q1 report's condensed BS lumps the lease liability + WeCare contingent consideration (~19.9 MSEK) into the line 'Other non-current liabilities' 43.5; no separate 'Borrowings' line. net_pension_liability = 0 (ITP2 via Alecta = defined-contribution multi-employer plan per UFR 10, Note 1/Note 6 - no DB liability on the BS). Lease liability 26.9 MSEK (FY2025-12-31 total, Note 14: current 8.097 + non-current 18.766) EXCLUDED from IC: ROU relates only to office premises + cars (Note 14), peripheral assets in an asset-light staffing business (ROU 31.9 vs total assets 626.6 = 5%). accumulated_oci = translation reserve: FY2025 closing value -23.543 (equity table p.115) adjusted by Q1 2026 OCI +7.8 (Q report p.16) = approx -15.7; negative reserve -> equity_ex_oci INCREASES -> IC increases, ROIC falls. NCI = 0 (all subsidiaries 100% owned, e.g. WeCare ApS 100%, Note 3 Q report).
Pages read — FY: [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 112, 113, 114, 115, 124, 125, 131, 132, 133, 154, 155] · Q: [2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20] 📄 p.2
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.