UIE is a non-operating holding company: a 48.4% stake in United Plantations (de facto control, fully consolidated; 88% of asset market value), a fair-valued stake in Schörling (8%), Greenbridge (2%) and net cash. Company-disclosed NAV/share was DKK 608.3 at 31/3/2026; at DKK 364 the stock trades at ~0.60x NAV — a ~40% holding discount (37% disclosed at the 31/3 price).
The underlying asset is high quality: UP is among the lowest-cost palm-oil producers, delivered record FY2025 results and all-time-high Q1 2026 CPO/PK production, lifting UIE's share of UP profit 10% YoY in USD to 19.7m even with realised CPO prices down 6%. The Q1 2026 attributable loss of USD 26.6m is entirely mark-to-market on Schörling (-36.2m) and Greenbridge (-7.5m), not operating deterioration.
The conservative case rates plantation earnings through-cycle and assumes the discount persists: the return then comes from NAV compounding (UP earnings and dividends, ~12% attributable ROE) plus buybacks executed at 0.60x NAV, which are mechanically accretive per share. Discount narrowing is optionality, not the base case — family control and a single dominant listed asset argue the discount is structural.
Primary lens is the NAV discount, not consolidated multiples: P/BV of 2.49x overstates valuation because UP is carried at consolidated book, not market value. At 0.60x a NAV that is ~88% marked via UP's listed price, the cushion is substantial — but the NAV itself embeds palm-oil prices near cycle highs, so the effective through-cycle discount is narrower than 40%.
Base DKK 420 (24m): NAV roughly flat on through-cycle CPO, discount holds ~35-40%, plus dividends/buybacks. Bull DKK 520: CPO firm, Schörling/Greenbridge marks recover, discount narrows toward 30%. Bear DKK 290: CPO down-cycle compresses UP's earnings and share price, NAV falls and the discount widens past 45%.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $520 | +43% | 25% | CPO firm, Schörling/Greenbridge marks recover, discount narrows toward 30% |
| Base | $420 | +15% | 50% | Through-cycle CPO, NAV roughly flat, discount persists ~35-40%; dividends + buybacks carry the return |
| Bear | $290 | -20% | 25% | CPO down-cycle compresses UP earnings and NAV; discount widens past 45% |
| Prob-weighted | $412 | +13% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
88% of asset value; CPO/PK prices, production volumes and MYR/USD set NAV.
~40% vs disclosed NAV; persistence assumed, narrowing is upside optionality.
USD 33.1m FY2025 + 5.0m Q1 2026 executed at ~0.6x NAV — accretive per share.
FY2025 DPS USD 2.04 (+21%); real cash return while waiting.
10% of assets, fair-valued; drove the entire Q1 2026 loss.
A ~40% discount to a NAV that is 88% a listed, low-cost palm-oil producer, with management buying back stock at 0.60x and growing the dividend, is a genuine margin of safety even after rating CPO through-cycle. BUY, low conviction: the discount is the cushion, not the catalyst.
Sized as a NAV-discount holding, not an operating compounder — the position pays you to wait via dividends and accretive buybacks, and the bear case (CPO down-cycle plus discount widening) is live and must be underwritten.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 net income attributable to owners (USD -26,602k) | -26,602 | Consolidated income statement, p.29 📄 p.29 | Parent-attributable earnings are the correct basis for ROE/P-E: UP is fully consolidated at only 48.4% ownership, so NCI absorbs a large share of consolidated profit. |
| Q1 2025 net income attributable to owners (USD 29,091k) | 29,091 | Consolidated income statement comparative, p.29 📄 p.29 | Subtracted in the LTM roll-forward (FY2025 + Q1 2026 - Q1 2025). |
| FY2025 net income attributable to owners (USD 139,924k) | 139,924 | Consolidated income statement, AR2025 p.108 📄 p.108 | LTM anchor; also verified against the FY2025 column in the Q1 2026 report (p.29). |
| Total equity 31/3/2026 (USD 1,095,410k) with NCI (USD 391,665k) | 1,095,410 | Consolidated statement of financial position, p.30 📄 p.30 | NCI is 36% of total equity (UP minorities) — ROE and book-value multiples must be computed on equity attributable to owners (USD 703,745k), not total equity. |
| Goodwill 31/3/2026 (USD 95,239k) | 95,239 | Consolidated statement of financial position, p.30 📄 p.30 | Deducted from attributable equity for tangible equity / ROTE / P-TBV; no separate intangible-assets line on the balance sheet. |
| NAV per share 31/3/2026 (DKK 608.3) vs share price (DKK 382.5) | 608 | Financial highlights - Business reporting, p.4 📄 p.4 | Company-disclosed NAV (market value of underlying assets / shares outstanding) shows a 37% holding discount at 31/3 — the primary valuation lens for a holding company, ahead of consolidated book multiples. |
| Q1 2026 fair-value change Schörling (USD -36,185k), Greenbridge (USD -7,507k) | -43,692 | Consolidated income statement, p.29; Business reporting highlights, p.5 📄 p.29 | The Q1 loss is mark-to-market on listed/unlisted investment stakes, not operating deterioration — UP's contribution rose 10% YoY in USD. |
| FY2025 balance sheet (equity USD 743,654k to parent, NCI USD 379,593k) | 743,654 | Consolidated statement of financial position, AR2025 p.109 📄 p.109 | FY anchor verification of the equity structure; interim 31/3/2026 snapshot used for stocks per LTM convention. |