North Media's core is a Danish leaflet- and parcel-distribution network (FK Distribution) built on route density and terminal scale, plus a Swedish sister operation (SDR) still mid-turnaround after a DKK155m FY2024 goodwill impairment. Digital Services -- BoligPortal (Denmark's market-leading rental marketplace), Dayli and Bekey -- is smaller (13% of revenue) but structurally higher quality: BoligPortal alone produced DKK4.5m of Q1 2026 EBIT against a DKK4.3m group total, i.e. it is effectively subsidising the rest of the business.
The group also carries a DKK772.5m portfolio of listed equities (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Novo Nordisk, Apple, Teradyne, Amazon among others) built from two decades of retained cash, explicitly disclosed as strategic M&A firepower rather than working capital. It generates volatile mark-to-market swings booked entirely below EBIT (-DKK39.7m Q1 2026, -DKK151.7m Q1 2025, +DKK217.4m FY2024) that make headline net income and EPS a poor read on the operating business -- adjusted NOPAT of DKK54.6m and adjusted ROIC of 12.5% (vs the company's own pretax EBITA-style 15.2%, which mttssn rejects for adding back genuine 10-year amortization on acquired distribution intangibles) are the cleaner lens.
The near-term swing factor is SDR: FY2025's EBIT swing to +DKK85.3m from -DKK34.0m (2024) was purely the non-recurrence of the 2024 impairment -- SDR itself remained loss-making (-DKK27.3m FY2025) and its Q1 2026 loss WIDENED to -DKK16.0m from -DKK12.1m even as management still guides to a full benefit from centralizing Swedish parcel-packing in Taastrup only by 2027. A second overhang is the unresolved FK Distribution abuse-of-dominance litigation (Danish Eastern High Court judgment expected April 2027, liability unreserved).
On an EV basis the stock looks statistically very cheap -- EV of only DKK181.9m against adjusted LTM NOPAT of DKK54.6m (3.3x) -- because the market ascribes limited value to the securities-funded balance sheet beyond its cash value while pricing the operating business conservatively given SDR's ongoing losses and the litigation overhang. P/BV of 0.8x and positive economic profit (+DKK19.7m) both point to some real discount, but it is not a deep one once the SDR drag and unresolved litigation are given appropriate weight.
Base DKK52 (+13%, SDR losses stabilize near current run-rate, FK Distribution and BoligPortal hold their margins, litigation stays unresolved but unreserved); bull DKK66 (+43%, SDR turnaround shows a genuine QoQ inflection ahead of the 2027 guide and/or the litigation is resolved favourably, re-rating toward the company's own net-cash-adjusted book); bear DKK37 (-20%, SDR losses keep widening, print-volume decline accelerates per the narrowed 2026 guidance, and/or an adverse litigation ruling crystallizes a liability).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 13% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is DKK 76/share (164% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 66 | -13% | +43% | 25% | SDR shows a genuine QoQ inflection and/or litigation resolves favourably |
| Base | DKK 52 | -42% | +13% | 45% | SDR losses stabilize near current run-rate; FK Distribution/BoligPortal hold margins |
| Bear | DKK 37 | — | -20% | 30% | SDR losses keep widening, print decline accelerates, and/or an adverse litigation ruling crystallizes |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 51 | — | +11% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 89 | 94 | 97 | 102 | 106 | 116 |
| 7.25% | 81 | 85 | 87 | 91 | 93 | 100 |
| 8.00% (base) | 76 | 78 | 80 | 83 | 84 | 89 |
| 8.75% | 71 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 81 |
| 9.50% | 68 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 75 |
Green = fair value above the current price of DKK 46.10. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Denmark's rental-marketplace leader (26,963 landlords on-platform Q1'26) generated DKK4.5m of EBIT alone -- more than the entire group's DKK4.3m Q1 EBIT.
Danish leaflet/parcel distribution EBIT margin rose to 13.7% in Q1'26 (+5.0pp yoy) even as printed-matter volumes decline structurally.
DKK742.6m net interest-bearing cash position (incl. DKK772.5m securities) funds M&A optionality and cushions the SDR turnaround without bank debt.
46% payout of post-securities earnings plus opportunistic buybacks; DKK289m returned to shareholders over 5 years, dividend skipped only in the FY2024 impairment year.
Dayli turned marginally profitable in Q1'26 (+DKK0.1m vs -DKK3.4m); BoligPortal/Dayli/Bekey carry 93-98%+ segment gross margins.
North Media pairs a resilient, scale-advantaged Danish distribution franchise and a genuinely moated rental marketplace (BoligPortal) with a lossmaking Swedish turnaround (SDR) and a DKK772.5m securities book that dwarfs the operating business on the balance sheet. Adjusted ROIC 12.5% clears the 8% WACC (+DKK19.7m EP), and the stock trades near book value net of its cash pile -- but the SDR loss is still widening, not narrowing, and an unreserved litigation overhang runs to April 2027.
HOLD, medium conviction; base target DKK52 (+13%). This is a first, streamlined-tier note -- we would revisit toward BUY on evidence the SDR loss has troughed on a quarter-on-quarter basis (not just yoy) or on a favourable litigation outcome; either de-risks the catalyst the current price is effectively waiting on.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue DKK1,296.0m / EBIT DKK66.2m | 1,296 | Totalindkomstopgørelse for koncernen | Consolidated FY income statement, continuing operations (Ofir discontinued activity already carved out per company's own hoved-og-nøgletal convention). |
| FY2025 balance sheet: equity, debt, cash | 1,214 | Balance for koncernen | FY2025 anchor balance sheet; superseded by Q1 2026 snapshot for IC purposes but used for FY comparatives and 5-year band checks. |
| Company APM definitions incl. own 'Investeret kapital' and ROIC formulas | 447 | Note 3 – Nøgletalsdefinitioner | Company's own APM nets ALL interest/return-bearing assets (incl. securities) against equity+debt to derive Invested Capital -- directly informs and corroborates our excess-cash/securities-stripping IC methodology. |
| Segment revenue/EBIT split: Last Mile vs Digital Services | 85.3 | Note 5 – Segmentoplysninger | Drives the retail-vs-industrial/software sector judgment call: Last Mile (FK Distribution+SDR) = 87% of external revenue and EBIT DKK85.3m FY2025; Digital Services (BoligPortal+Dayli+Bekey) EBIT DKK3.6m. |
| Securities/cash unallocated to segments, geographic revenue split | 70.1 | Note 5 – Segmentoplysninger (fortsat), geografiske oplysninger | 70.1% DK / 29.9% SE revenue split used to derive the blended 21.6% statutory tax rate; confirms securities/HQ properties are unallocated corporate items, not segment-operating assets. |
| FY2025 D&A/impairment breakdown: intangible DKK19.2m, PP&E DKK40.3m, no new impairment, DKK2.2m property-sale gain | 58.4 | Note 8 – Af- og nedskrivninger | Source for the PPA-amortization LTM estimate (19.2/58.4=33% split ratio) and the one-off Helsingør property-sale gain normalization. |
| Afkast værdipapirer (return on securities) FY2025 DKK15.6m vs FY2024 DKK217.4m | 15.6 | Note 9 – Afkast værdipapirer | Confirms return-on-securities is booked below EBIT and is a mark-to-market/dividend item on the trading securities portfolio, never mixed into operating EBIT. |
| SDR CGU impairment test: zero goodwill post FY2024 write-down, -4% terminal growth | 0 | Note 14 – Immaterielle og materielle aktiver, nedskrivningstest | Confirms LTM window (FY2025 + Q1 2026) carries NO new impairment -- the DKK155m charge is entirely a FY2024 event outside the LTM window; flags the 2027 Swedish-turnaround thesis as the next impairment trigger to monitor. |
| Lease assets DKK33.7m (2025) / DKK29.6m lease debt at Q1 2026 -- immaterial vs total assets | 33.7 | Note 14 – Immaterielle og materielle aktiver (fortsat) | Basis for lease_liabilities_in_ic = false: leased assets are a small residual (office/vehicle), not the primary operating asset base (owned real estate + terminals dominate). |
| Q1 2026 consolidated financial highlights: revenue, EBIT, ROIC, Invested Capital DKK439.8m | 440 | Consolidated financial highlights 📄 p.7 | Company's own disclosed Invested Capital (DKK439.8m) closely corroborates our independently-derived adjusted IC (DKK436.4m, within 1%) -- primary cross-check for the IC/securities-stripping methodology. |
| Securities portfolio DKK772.5m (Q1 2026), purpose = capital resources / M&A firepower | 772 | Capital resources / Securities portfolio commentary 📄 p.9 | Explicit management disclosure of the securities portfolio's non-operating purpose (strategic reserve, M&A firepower, independence from bank debt) -- the qualitative basis for excluding it from invested capital as excess/non-operating financial assets. |
| Q1 2026 consolidated statement of comprehensive income | 4.3 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.14 | Full IS for Q1 2026 and Q1 2025 comparative used for LTM roll-forward of revenue/EBIT/tax/return-on-securities. |
| Q1 2026 consolidated balance sheet | 1,182 | Consolidated balance sheet 📄 p.15 | Primary IC snapshot source: equity, mortgage debt DKK97.5m, lease debt DKK29.6m, cash DKK97.2m, securities DKK772.5m, goodwill DKK41.1m, other intangibles DKK99.0m. |
| Q1 2026 segment information: FK Distribution, SDR, BoligPortal, Dayli, Bekey | 6.7 | Note 4 – Segment information 📄 p.19 | Confirms Q1 2026 segment-level EBIT trend (SDR loss widening, FK Distribution improving, Dayli turning marginally profitable) used in qualitative flags. |
| Contingent liability: FK Distribution abuse-of-dominance appeal, judgment expected April 2027 | 0 | Note 5 – Contingent liabilities and assets 📄 p.20 | Unreserved, not reliably estimable litigation contingency -- flagged for monitoring, not modelled. |