Wallenius Wilhelmsen is the world's #2 pure car and truck carrier (PCTC) operator — Shipping is 76% of revenue, with landside Logistics and a Government segment on top. LTM Q1 2026 economics are exceptional: $5,196M revenue, 20.7% adjusted EBIT margin, adjusted NOPAT of $1,033M on $3.75bn invested capital for a 27.5% ROIC and +$733M economic profit at an 8% WACC — marginally ahead of peer HAUTO despite a broader divisional structure.
Those numbers are cycle-elevated and the fade has started: FY2026 adj. EBITDA guidance was cut to ~$1.6bn from an implicit ~$1.8bn+, the March 2026 Hormuz closure trapped a vessel and lifted bunker costs that BAF clauses recover only with a 2–4 month lag (Q2 2026 the trough quarter), and USTR port fees plus the EV/China mix shift press volumes structurally. The streamlined record does not quantify contract coverage vs spot or the industry orderbook — the two key cycle variables — so the base case must be conservative.
The asymmetry is in the price, not the earnings: at market EV of $5.3bn the equity capitalizes only ~$425M of perpetual NOPAT at an 8% WACC — a ~59% haircut to LTM and below any plausible mid-cycle run-rate for a balance sheet at 1.2x adj. EBITDA. The reverse-DCF fair EV is $16.0bn at zero growth (NOK 352/share); we do not need that scenario — a heavily normalized ~$650M NOPAT perpetuity still puts value ~30% above the NOK 131.30 price.
Reverse-DCF: market EV $5,335M implies perpetual growth of −38% on current NOPAT; fair EV at zero growth is $16,036M and $17,502M at GDP growth — NOK 352 and NOK 385 per share after bridging $543M net debt at 9.62 NOK/USD across 423.1M shares. PEBV stands at 0.46, i.e. the equity trades at less than half the no-growth economic book value of the existing NOPAT stream. We treat those fair values as ceilings, not targets: LTM NOPAT sits at the top of the freight cycle.
Scenario table uses through-cycle NOPAT perpetuities at g=0. Base NOK 170 (+29%) on ~$650M normalized NOPAT; bull NOK 240 (+83%) if guidance-level economics (~$1.6bn EBITDA, ~$900M NOPAT) prove the sustainable floor; bear NOK 90 (−31%) on a hard down-cycle (~$350M NOPAT) from tariffs, EV mix and newbuild supply. Probability-weighted NOK 168, +28%.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~26.1%, limited by ROIC 28% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is $-9/share (-7% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $240 | ≥26% | +83% | 25% | Guidance-level ~$900M NOPAT proves the sustainable floor |
| Base | $170 | ≥26% | +29% | 50% | Through-cycle ~$650M NOPAT perpetuity, g=0 |
| Bear | $90 | ≥26% | -31% | 25% | Hard down-cycle: tariffs + EV mix + newbuild supply, ~$350M NOPAT |
| Prob-weighted | $168 | — | +28% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 4 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 28 | 43 |
| 7.25% | -4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 27 |
| 8.00% (base) | -9 | -5 | -2 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 8.75% | -14 | -10 | -8 | -4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9.50% | -17 | -14 | -12 | -9 | -6 | 1 |
Green = fair value above the current price of $131.30. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Market EV capitalizes ~$425M perpetual NOPAT vs $1,033M LTM; PEBV 0.46 and implied g of −38% — the down-cycle is largely in the price.
Adjusted ROIC 27.5% vs 8% WACC, EP +$733M — ahead of HAUTO (25.8%) with a 3.7% effective tax rate under tonnage/participation regimes.
Landside logistics (21% of revenue) and Government contracts add earnings less exposed to spot freight rates.
Net debt ex-leases $515M, 1.2x adj. EBITDA — the equity survives a down-cycle without distress mechanics.
Bunker adjustment factors recover Hormuz-driven fuel cost with a 2–4 month lag — Q2 2026 is a timing trough, not the run-rate.
WAWI is a top-decile value creator (ROIC 27.5%, EP +$733M, sector rank 8/213) trading at 0.46x economic book value with the market pricing perpetual −38% decline. Even our deliberately haircut base — ~$650M through-cycle NOPAT, zero growth — yields NOK 170 (+29%). BUY, medium conviction; the discount is wide enough to absorb substantial normalization.
Conviction is capped at medium by what the record does not show: contract coverage, the orderbook, and the EUKOR put resolution. A full deep-dive quantifying coverage and the FY2026 trough would be the trigger to revisit sizing; sustained guidance misses below ~$1.4bn EBITDA would force a base-case rebuild.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open
NOPAT adjustments: other_one_off_addback LTM: strip MIRRAT subsidiary disposal gain (FY2025 -135M) + strip vessel disposal gains (FY2025 -28M, Q1 2026 ~0M) + add USTR port fee LTM net (+20M = FY25 21M + Q1'25 0M - Q1'26 1M recovery) + add digital transformation (+18M = FY25 12M + Q1'26 6M) = net -124M → other_one_off = -114M. restructuring_normalization: FY25 4M + Q1'26 2M − Q1'25 0M = +6M... rounding to 5M. sum_pretax -119M computed directly from company APM bridge (LTM adj EBIT 1,076M − LTM reported EBIT 1,194M = -118M ≈ -119M). Stored here as approx split.
Post-tax add-backs: No impairment in LTM. FY2025 goodwill derecognition (MIRRAT 39M) was part of disposal, not standalone impairment.
Company add-backs we reject: PPA amortization 37M/yr (customer relations 31M + other intangibles 6M). Company does not add it back to adjusted EBIT either — consistent. SBC 1M (cash-settled LTIP, immaterial). Both kept in opex per mttssn methodology.
Invested capital: BS from Q1 2026 (31.03.2026). OCI-justering: Currency translation reserve = −43M USD per Statement of Changes in Equity, Dec 31, 2024 (Wallenius Wilhelmsen Annual Report 2024, sida 141). equity_ex_oci = 3,064 − (−43) = 3,107M. Pension remeasurements (−2M 2024) ingår i Retained earnings (ej separat OCI-kolumn). Inga hedge-reserver (WAWI tillämpar fair value hedge → P&L, ej OCI). IB debt: non-current loans+bonds 1,181M + current 224M = 1,405M. Cash 890M. Pension net liability 28M (FY2025 figure). EUKOR written put option 897M excluded. IC = 3,107 + 1,405 + 28 − 786.1 = 3,753.9M. NOTERING: OCI från Dec 31, 2024 används (FY2024 AR); Q1 2026 BS-data men ingen Q1 2026 OCI-tabell tillgänglig. Materialitet: 43/3,064 = 1.4% — över 1%-tröskel, men liten effekt.
Pages read — FY: [5, 6, 7, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 131, 143, 144, 145, 148, 149, 150, 158, 180, 206, 207] · Q: [3, 4, 14, 16, 17, 18, 23, 30, 37, 38, 39] 📄 p.5
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.