Bonheur is the Fred Olsen family's holding/operating group across three consolidated segments: Renewable Energy (Fred Olsen Renewables — onshore wind, 854 MW gross, ROC/CfD/GC-supported), Wind Service (Fred Olsen Windcarrier/Ocean — the scarce Brave/Bold/Blue Tern offshore-wind installation vessels) and Cruise (Fred Olsen Cruise Lines). LTM revenue ~NOK 12.5bn; consolidated LTM ROIC ~13-14% against a 9% WACC, economic profit ~+NOK 500m — value-creative.
Q1 2026 strengthened the thesis: the MEAG (Munich Re) transaction FIRST-CLOSED — EUR 150m into Fred Olsen Windcarrier for a 17.05% NCI (rising to ~24% at a 2027 second closing) — which both crystallised a premium value on the WTIV fleet and collapsed group NIBD to NOK 282m (from ~NOK 2.5bn). The Tern-vessel backlog jumped to EUR 986m (from 426m) incl a new 10-year firm contract; Renewable Energy EBITDA rose to NOK 600m (Crystal Rig IV online); and Cruise turned EBITDA-positive (+NOK 9m vs −33m) on 70% occupancy and +23% bookings. The opportunity remains the discount — ~1.0x EV/IC, ~3.8x EV/adj-EBITDA, ~7x parent P/E — for a collection of long-life wind assets + scarce installation vessels + a recovering cruise line. Caveats: cruise + offshore-wind-service cyclicality, a complex NCI-heavy consolidated structure and Fred Olsen family control.
At ~1.0x EV/IC, ~3.8x EV/adj-EBITDA and ~7x parent P/E, Bonheur trades at a wide discount to a sum-of-the-parts of its renewables, offshore-wind-service and cruise assets — a discount the MEAG deal (a third party paying a premium for 17% of just the WTIV arm) directly challenges.
Base NOK 290 (a partial close of the SOTP discount); bull NOK 360 if offshore-wind service + renewables values are further crystallized (more MEAG-style deals / asset sales) and cruise normalizes; bear NOK 200 on an offshore-wind-capex/cruise downturn or a persistent holding-company discount.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -22.5% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 14% on capital against a 9% cost of capital (spread +5.5 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 440/share (181% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 360 | -8% | +48% | 35% | Further MEAG-style crystallization; renewables + cruise re-rate |
| Base | NOK 290 | -16% | +19% | 45% | Partial close of the SOTP discount |
| Bear | NOK 200 | -29% | -18% | 20% | Offshore-wind-capex/cruise downturn or persistent holding discount |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 296 | — | +22% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | 581 | 635 | 673 | 734 | 776 | 892 |
| 8.25% | 502 | 544 | 573 | 620 | 652 | 738 |
| 9.00% (base) | 440 | 473 | 496 | 532 | 557 | 621 |
| 9.75% | 392 | 418 | 436 | 463 | 482 | 529 |
| 10.50% | 352 | 373 | 386 | 407 | 421 | 456 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 244.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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~1.0x EV/IC / ~7x parent P/E vs a SOTP of quality assets; MEAG paid a premium for 17% of the WTIV arm alone.
Scarce offshore-wind installation vessels; Tern backlog jumped to EUR 986m incl a 10-year firm contract.
854 MW onshore wind (Crystal Rig IV now online) — stable, valuable, supported cash flows.
MEAG first closing collapsed group NIBD to NOK 282m — dry powder for the offshore-wind pipeline (Codling, Muir Mhòr).
Bonheur is a value-creative (LTM ROIC ~13-14% > WACC) Fred Olsen conglomerate of long-life wind assets, scarce installation vessels and a recovering cruise line, trading at a wide SOTP discount (~1.0x EV/IC, ~7x parent P/E). The Q1 2026 MEAG closing validated the WTIV value and deleveraged the balance sheet. BUY; base NOK 290.
Own the discount + asset quality; the catalysts are further SOTP value crystallization, and the cautions are cyclicality + family-control structure.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (group, FY2025) | 12,493 | Income statement - Group of companies / Note 4 | Revenues line, Jan-Dec 2025 column = 12,493 (prior year 13,995, -10.7%). Note 4 segment table confirms: Renewable Energy 2,376, Wind Service 5,071, Cruise 3,779, Other 1,266. |
| EBITDA (group, FY2025) | 3,745 | Income statement / Note 4 | Operating result before depreciation/impairment (EBITDA), Jan-Dec 2025 = 3,745 (prior year 3,537). Segment EBITDA (Note 4): Renewable Energy 1,297, Wind Service 1,799, Cruise 674, Other -25. |
| Depreciation / impairment (FY2025) | 1,254 | Note 2 Property, plant and equipment | Income statement depreciation/impairment Jan-Dec 2025 = 1,254. Note 2 PP&E depreciation = windfarms 353 + vessels 766 + other 102 = 1,221; balance (~33) is intangible amortisation/other. No impairment recognised. |
| Operating profit (EBIT, FY2025) | 2,491 | Income statement / Note 4 | Operating result (EBIT), Jan-Dec 2025 = 2,491 (prior year 2,324); EBIT margin 19.9%. Used as the starting point for adjusted EBIT (less 352 disposal gains). |
| Disposal gains (removed from EBIT) | -352 | Consolidated statement of cash flow | OCF adjustment 'Net gain(-)/loss on sale of property, plant and equipment and other investments' = -352 (a gain) for Jan-Dec 2025 (FY2024: -2). Disposal proceeds 607 in investing CF. Embedded in EBITDA/EBIT; removed for clean operating EBIT. |
| Profit before tax / Tax / Net result (FY2025) | 2,212 | Income statement / Note 6 Taxes | EBT 2,212; estimated tax cost -326 (effective 14.7%; Note 6: current tax 379 mostly UK Renewable Energy + Wind Service, offset by 53 deferred-tax income incl. Blue Tern tonnage-tax). Net result 1,886. |
| Net result attributable to parent owners (FY2025) | 1,423 | Income statement | Of net result 1,886, 464 is attributable to non-controlling interests and 1,423 to shareholders of the parent. Basic/diluted EPS 33.4. Drives parent P/E 7.3x. |
| Total equity / NCI (31.12.2025) | 11,251 | Statement of financial position / Statement of changes in equity (p.14) | Total equity 11,251 = equity to parent 9,256 + NCI 1,994. Equity statement shows parent 9,257 (rounding). NCI = 43.28% NHST + 49% UK wind JVs + 7.84% Global Wind Service. |
| OCI reserves stripped (translation + fair value) | 700 | Statement of changes in equity | Translation reserve 698 + fair-value reserve 2 = 700 at 31.12.2025. Stripped from equity per mttssn methodology; equity_ex_oci = 11,251 - 700 = 10,551. |
| Gross interest-bearing debt (31.12.2025) | 8,825 | Statement of financial position / Note 5 | Non-current IB liabilities 6,693 + current IB liabilities 2,132 = 8,825. Note 5: largely non-recourse project/vessel finance (UK wind JVs, Tern vessel green loans, IFRS 16 leases 573) plus 4 Bonheur ASA ESG bonds totalling 3,100 nominal. |
| Cash and cash equivalents (31.12.2025) | 6,317 | Statement of financial position / cash flow (p.16) | Cash and cash equivalents 6,317 at 31.12.2025 (prior year 6,583). All treated as IC funding (excess_cash 6,317) so that IC equals company capital-employed less OCI; net debt = 8,825 - 6,317 = 2,508. |
| Net interest-bearing debt (NIBD) | 2,508 | Definitions (APM: NIBD) / balance sheet | Company NIBD definition = non-current + current IB debt - cash = 8,825 - 6,317 = 2,508 (positive net debtor). Authoritative; supersedes the erroneous Borsdata feed (~-7,905). |
| Operating PP&E (31.12.2025) | 12,522 | Note 2 / balance sheet | Property, plant and equipment carrying amount 12,522 = windfarms 6,817 + vessels 5,256 + other 448. Kept in IC (the wind farms, three Tern installation vessels and three cruise ships are the operating asset base). |
| Shares outstanding | 42.532 | Statement of changes in equity (Number of shares issued) | Number of shares issued = 42,531,893 (par NOK 1.25); confirmed unchanged in the Q1 2026 report key-figures. Used with verified price NOK 244.00 for market cap 10,377.78. |
| Q1 2026 trajectory + NIBD bridge | 282 | Key figures / NIBD | Q1 2026 (published 12 May 2026): revenue 2,873, EBITDA 760, EBIT 476, net result 294, parent 93, EPS 2.2. Group NIBD fell to 282 (cash 7,905, gross IB 8,188) after the MEAG EUR 150m FOWIC investment closed — evidences current trajectory; FY2025 net-debt anchor (2,508) retained for date-consistency. |
| LTM EBIT bridge — Q1 2026 EBIT | 476 | Income statement p12 📄 p.12 | Q1 2026 group EBIT; LTM = FY 2,491 − 404 + 476 = 2,563 |
| Q1 2026 total equity (IC rebuild) | 12,068 | Balance sheet 📄 p.13 | Equity 12,068 (FY 11,251) — IC rebuild input; NIBD 283 vs FY 2,308 |
| Renewable Energy Q1 EBIT (segment) | 504 | Note 4 Segment p19 📄 p.19 | Renewables core EBIT +22% YoY — quality engine |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.