Norion Bank (formerly Collector) is a Swedish specialist lender: corporate & real-estate lending under the Norion brand (41% of a ~SEK 50bn book), consumer finance via Walley (28%), corporate (23%) and payments/factoring. It is a higher-yield, higher-risk, deposit-funded niche bank. ROE is ~13.6% (LTM; FY2025 reported 15.5%, normalized ~14%), residual income +SEK 300m over a 10.5% (deliberately elevated) cost of equity. CET1 is 15.6% with only ~SEK 1.3bn excess capital — a thinner cushion than the majors.
The defining variable is credit cost: the loss level is ~1.7% (roughly 100x a prime bank), so the thesis is entirely contingent on credit stability through the cycle. On valuation it is cheap — 1.16x book, 1.18x tangible, 8.6x earnings — and returns capital via ~SEK 1.5bn of buybacks (~8.9% buyback yield, no dividend). On a normalized 14% ROE the Gordon fair value is ~SEK 75.5 (+27%). Cheap with real credit risk — sized accordingly.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10.5%, g 3%: normalized 14% ROE -> ~SEK 75.5 (+27%); range ~SEK 73 (13.6% ROE) to ~SEK 86 (15.5% peak). Current 1.16x book, 8.6x earnings.
Base SEK 72 (conservative on current ROE; credit-cost contingent); bull SEK 86 if credit costs stay contained and ROE holds; bear SEK 50 on a credit-cycle deterioration (the loss level rising further).
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 11.7% vs 13.4% currently earned; at a sustained 13.4% ROE the warranted P/B is 1.39× (SEK 71/sh, +20%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 86 | 16% | +45% | 30% | Credit costs contained; ROE holds |
| Base | SEK 72 | 13% | +21% | 40% | Conservative on current ROE; credit-contingent |
| Bear | SEK 50 | 10% | -16% | 30% | Credit-cycle deterioration; loss level rises |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 70 | — | +17% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.00% | 60 | 94 | 129 | 163 | 197 | 232 | 266 |
| 9.75% | 53 | 84 | 114 | 145 | 175 | 206 | 236 |
| 10.50% (base) | 48 | 76 | 103 | 130 | 158 | 185 | 213 |
| 11.25% | 44 | 69 | 94 | 119 | 144 | 168 | 193 |
| 12.00% | 40 | 63 | 86 | 109 | 132 | 154 | 177 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 59.50. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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1.16x book / 8.6x P/E — a discount for the credit risk.
~8.9% buyback yield (~SEK 1.5bn) returns surplus capital.
Higher-yield specialist lending drives a mid-teens ROE.
Consumer + payments diversify the corporate/real-estate book.
Norion is a cheap (1.16x book / 8.6x P/E) niche specialist bank with a mid-teens ROE and a ~8.9% buyback yield, but a ~1.7% credit-loss level makes the thesis credit-contingent. Mild BUY, low conviction; base SEK 72.
Size small; the swing factor is credit-cost stability through the cycle.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income (LTM) | 3,345 | Income statement - Group p.26 + FY anchor p.5 | Core revenue line for a bank. LTM = Q1 2026 813 + FY2025 3,460 - Q1 2025 928 = 3,345. NII pressured by lower market rates and high Stage 3 volumes (mainly Real Estate); Q1 2025 was lifted by ~SEK 140m of Stage 3 interest recoveries. |
| Total income (LTM) | 3,738 | Income statement - Group p.26 + FY anchor p.5 | LTM total income = Q1 2026 913 + FY2025 3,847 - Q1 2025 1,022 = 3,738. NII ~90% of total income; fee/commission income SEK 293m LTM is the second line. |
| Operating profit (LTM) | 1,702 | Income statement - Group p.26 + FY anchor p.2 | Pre-tax profit after credit losses. LTM = Q1 2026 389 + FY2025 1,838 - Q1 2025 525 = 1,702. FY2025 operating profit 1,838 was up 14% YoY on lower credit losses (838 vs 1,014). |
| Credit losses, net (LTM) | -841 | Income statement - Group p.26 (Note 7) | KEY for a niche lender. LTM credit losses = Q1 2026 -219 + FY2025 -838 - Q1 2025 -216 = -841 SEK m. Credit-loss LEVEL 1.7% of loans (R12m) — structurally elevated vs a prime bank, the defining risk of higher-yield niche lending. |
| Net profit to shareholders (LTM) | 1,310 | Income statement - Group p.26 + FY anchor | LTM = Q1 2026 291 + FY2025 1,431 - Q1 2025 412 = 1,310 (attributable to shareholders, after SEK 17m AT1 coupon). Total group net profit LTM 1,327. |
| Total common equity to shareholders (31 Mar 2026) | 9,769 | Balance sheet - Group p.28 | Latest-quarter equity snapshot is the bank invested-capital base. AT1 instruments (SEK 500m) sit separately above equity, so this is clean common equity. Up from 9,477 at Dec despite the buyback, on retained earnings. |
| AT1 / Tier 1 capital instruments | 500 | Balance sheet - Group p.28 | SEK 500m Tier 1 instruments issued Q4 2025, reported separately from common equity (coupon booked through equity). Excluded from the common-equity base used for ROE/P/B, consistent with bank methodology. |
| Intangible assets | 166 | Balance sheet - Group p.28 | Only SEK 166m intangibles (no material goodwill pre-Consensus) deducted from common equity to reach tangible common equity 9,603. P/B and P/TBV are therefore nearly identical (1.16x vs 1.18x). |
| ROE (LTM / R12m) | 0.136 | Key ratios - Group p.4 | Bank return measure. Computed LTM 13.61% (1,310 / avg equity 9,623) matches the reported R12m RoE 13.6%. FY2025 period RoE 15.5%; Q1 2026 period RoE 12.1% (down from 17.8% in Q1 2025, which was flattered by Stage 3 recoveries). |
| Common equity tier 1 ratio (CET1) | 0.156 | Key ratios - Group p.4 (Note 12 p.46) | Regulatory capital strength. CET1 15.6% (Q1 2026, unchanged from FY2025); total capital ratio 18.4%. CET1 capital SEK 9,006m on RWA ~SEK 57.7bn. Excess capital vs the 200-400bps buffer target was only SEK 1,311m at FY2025 — a thin cushion vs large banks. |
| Credit loss level (R12m) | 0.017 | Key ratios - Group p.4 | DEFINING RISK METRIC for a niche lender. Credit-loss level 1.7% of loans (R12m), down from 2.1% a year earlier but ~100x a prime bank's cost of risk. Elevated Stage 3 volumes concentrated in Real Estate. Structurally embedded in the higher-yield model (NIM 6.8% R12m). |
| C/I ratio (R12m) | 0.319 | Key ratios - Group p.4 | Cost/income 31.9% (R12m), up from 29.0% a year earlier on organisational investment and volume-related costs in Consumer/Payments. Still a low, efficient C/I — the high NIM funds a lean cost base. |
| Loan portfolio (31 Mar 2026) | 51,458 | Key ratios / Balance sheet - Group p.4, p.28 | Loans to the public SEK 51,458m at Q1 2026 (up 4% QoQ, 8% YoY). FY2025 49,675m split: Real Estate 41% (~SEK 20.5bn), Consumer 28%, Corporate 23% (~SEK 11.5bn), Payments/Walley 7%, Other 1%. Deposit-funded (deposits SEK 53,714m, ~79% of balance sheet). |
| Loan book by segment (FY2025 mix) | 49,675 | The Group's development - loan portfolio p.12 | FY2025 segment mix of the SEK 49,675m book: Corporate 23%, Real Estate 41%, Consumer 28%, Payments 7%, Other 1%. Real Estate (the largest and most Stage-3-affected) shrank 11% YoY; Consumer +12%, Payments +19% — the growth engines. |
| Shares outstanding (31 Mar 2026) | 189,782,534 | Key ratios footnote 4 p.4 | 189,782,534 shares outstanding, no treasury shares (the 15.6m repurchased in 2025 were cancelled at the 13 Feb 2026 EGM). Used for BVPS, P/B and market cap. Ordinary-share structure — no equity-certificate (EC) complexity. |
| Dividend / capital return FY2025 | 0 | Highlights p.2 | NO dividend proposed for FY2025. Capital returned via buybacks: ~SEK 1,000m (15.6m shares) repurchased in 2025 plus a further ~SEK 500m program in Q1 2026. Dividend yield 0%; buyback yield ~8.9% on current market cap. |
| Earnings per share (FY2025) | 7.12 | Highlights / Key ratios p.2, p.5 | FY2025 EPS SEK 7.12 (up 17% YoY from 6.09). LTM EPS ~SEK 6.90 (1,310 / 189.78m). P/E ~8.4-8.6x — a clear discount to prime Nordic banks, pricing the credit-cycle and niche risk. |
| Risk-weighted exposure amount (FY2025) | 56,283 | Capital adequacy p.13 (Note 12 p.47) | RWA SEK 56,283m at FY2025 (up from 53,713) on CET1 capital SEK 8,762m -> CET1 15.6%. High RWA density (~83% of total assets) reflects the higher risk weights on corporate, real-estate and unsecured consumer lending vs mortgages. |
| Share price end of Q1 2026 vs current | 59.5 | Live market verification 2026-06-08 | Current verified price SEK 59.50 (Investing.com latest close, prev 58.80; cross-checked TradingView 59.5 and Stockopedia 58.80) used for live multiples. 52-week range ~41.85-73.60; analyst targets SEK 63-72. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.