Cadeler installs offshore-wind turbines and foundations with a fleet of large, scarce installation vessels — a structural beneficiary of offshore-wind build-out, with a contracted backlog ~4.5x revenue. FY2025 revenue jumped ~149% (to EUR 620m) as the fleet doubled to 10 vessels, at a 51% EBIT margin. But the company is mid-newbuild-ramp: trailing ROIC is ~8.4%, below the 10% WACC (economic profit -EUR ~48m), because the vessels + ~EUR 600m of newbuilds-in-progress sit in invested capital before fully earning.
The balance sheet carries net debt ~EUR 1.3bn (~3.1x EBITDA, floating) plus ~EUR 462m committed 2026-2027 capex (program stated fully funded). It is optically cheap (EV/IC ~1.1x, P/E ~7x) and the Danish tonnage-tax shield means cash tax is ~3% (vs the 22% statutory used here), but the thesis rests on a forward re-rating as newbuilds enter service and utilization holds — not on today's sub-WACC returns. Policy/offshore-wind-capex risk is real.
At EV/IC ~1.1x and ~7x P/E the market pays roughly book for the fleet; the value case needs newbuilds earning + utilization holding to lift ROIC above WACC.
Base EUR 5.0 (~current; ramp + policy risk offset the cheap multiple); bull EUR 7.0 if newbuilds ramp on schedule, utilization/dayrates hold and the tonnage-tax cash returns compound; bear EUR 3.5 on offshore-wind capex delays, leverage stress or a cost overrun.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~7.9%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 10%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 27/share (52% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 67 | ≥8% | +28% | 30% | Newbuilds ramp on schedule; utilization/dayrates hold |
| Base | NOK 48 | ≥8% | -9% | 40% | Ramp + policy risk offset the cheap multiple |
| Bear | NOK 33 | ≥8% | -37% | 30% | Offshore-wind capex delays; leverage stress; cost overrun |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 49 | — | -6% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 37 |
| 9.25% | 33 | 33 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 23 |
| 10.00% (base) | 27 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 13 |
| 10.75% | 22 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 5 |
| 11.50% | 18 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 8 | -2 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 52.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
~4.5x revenue backlog underpins newbuild economics + visibility.
Next-gen A-Class newbuilds add high-spec capacity into a tight market.
~3% cash tax (vs 22% statutory) flatters cash returns materially.
Structural offshore-wind build-out drives multi-year installation demand.
Cadeler is the scarce-asset leader in offshore-wind installation with a deep contracted backlog, but trailing returns are sub-WACC during a heavy newbuild ramp and leverage + policy risk are live. HOLD; base EUR 5.0.
A forward backlog-and-utilization re-rating, not current economics; re-underwrite as newbuilds enter service.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FY2025) | 620 | Consolidated P&L for FY 2025 | Revenue line FY 2025 column = EUR 620,354k (FY 2024 EUR 248,738k), +149.4% YoY. Confirmed by the FY2025 earnings press release ('revenue of EUR 620 million'). |
| Cost of sales / Gross profit (FY2025) | 384 | Consolidated P&L for FY 2025 | Cost of sales EUR (236,755)k; gross profit EUR 383,599k; gross margin 61.8%. Cost of sales rose with newly delivered vessels Wind Ally/Maker/Mover/Pace becoming part of the operating fleet. |
| Operating profit (EBIT) (FY2025) | 318 | Consolidated P&L for FY 2025 | Operating profit line FY 2025 = EUR 317,743k (after SG&A and other expenses EUR (65,856)k). Used directly as adjusted EBIT (no verified non-recurring add-backs). |
| EBITDA (FY2025) | 425 | Consolidated P&L for FY 2025 (EBITDA line) | EBITDA FY 2025 = EUR 425,334k (FY 2024 EUR 125,897k). Implied D&A = EBITDA 425,334 - EBIT 317,743 = EUR 107,591k, dominated by vessel depreciation. Matches the FY2025 press release ('EBITDA reached EUR 425 million'). |
| Profit before tax / Income tax / Net profit (FY2025) | 280 | Consolidated P&L for FY 2025 | Finance net EUR (29,879)k -> profit before income tax EUR 287,864k; income tax expense EUR (7,680)k (2.7% effective, Danish tonnage-tax regime) -> profit after tax EUR 280,184k. Net profit confirmed by FY2025 press release ('net profit for the year totalled EUR 280 million'). |
| Total equity (31 Dec 2025) | 1,504 | Consolidated Balance Sheet for FY 2025 | Equity EUR 1,503,676k at 31 Dec 2025 (FY 2024 EUR 1,233,894k); equity ratio 44% (FY2024 64%). All attributable to parent; no NCI disclosed. |
| Total interest-bearing debt (31 Dec 2025) | 1,459 | Indebtedness / liquidity & risk-factor disclosure | Company-stated total interest-bearing debt EUR 1,459.1m at 31 Dec 2025, entirely floating-rate. Used as the balance-sheet IB debt for IC and net debt. Reconciles to the IR-deck gross facility draw of EUR 1,644m (of EUR 2,054m secured) less ~EUR 185m of capitalized financing fees / lease exclusion (see invested_capital note). |
| Cash and cash equivalents (31 Dec 2025) | 152 | Consolidated Balance Sheet for FY 2025 (Cash line) | Cash EUR 151,679k at 31 Dec 2025 (FY 2024 EUR 58,464k). Group available liquidity incl. undrawn RCF was ~EUR 343m. Treated entirely as operational liquidity for the newbuild program (excess_cash = 0). |
| Property, plant & equipment / vessels (31 Dec 2025) | 2,950 | Balance sheet (Non-current assets EUR 3,026,719k) + 20-F PP&E narrative | PP&E rose to ~EUR 2.9bn (from ~EUR 1.7bn in 2024), driven by newbuilds; sits within non-current assets of EUR 3,026,719k. Operating-vessel vs construction-in-progress split (~2,555 / ~600) taken from a financial-data aggregator and flagged approximate. The full vessel base incl. newbuilds-under-construction is KEPT in invested capital. |
| Order backlog (FY2025 report date) | 2,765 | Backlog disclosure | Total contracted backlog ~EUR 2,765m (firm days EUR 2,391m + customer options EUR 374m); ~4.5x FY2025 revenue, 82% on FID-taken projects. FY2025 press release headlines 'order backlog stands at EUR 2.8 billion' (as of 24 Mar 2026), up from ~EUR 2.3bn at end-2024. |
| Committed newbuild capex 2026-2027 | 462 | Capital commitments / newbuild program | Aggregate estimated capital expenditure of ~EUR 462m during 2026-2027 for the two A-Class newbuilds on order from COSCO (plus mission-equipment capex at project start). CAPEX program stated as fully funded (EUR 2,054m facilities secured, EUR 411m undrawn at 31 Dec 2025). |
| Shares outstanding (post March-2026 placement) | 386 | Registration of share capital increase, 30 Mar 2026 | 350,957,583 shares at 31 Dec 2025 + 35,095,758 new shares (NOK 56, ~9.1% of post-issue capital) registered 30 Mar 2026 = 385,963,349 total ordinary shares. Cross-checked vs stockanalysis.com (385.96m) and the borsdata stub (385.923m). Used for current market cap. |
| Q1 2026 cross-check (31 Mar 2026) | 1,360 | Q1 2026 balance sheet / income statement | Latest hard data point for trajectory: Q1 2026 revenue EUR 124.727m, EBITDA EUR 46.998m, EBIT EUR 7.786m, D&A EUR 38.746m, net loss EUR (7.049)m; balance sheet total IB debt EUR 1,581.527m, cash EUR 221.295m, net debt EUR 1,360.232m, equity EUR 1,681.824m; backlog EUR 2,705m. Used only to evidence the current ramp and leverage, not to re-anchor the FY2025 file. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.