Hacksaw develops and aggregates online-casino slot games, a capital-light content/IP business with exceptional economics: +44% revenue growth (all four quarters strong), an ~82% adjusted EBIT margin (the highest in the Nordic Large/Mid universe), a net-cash balance sheet and returns on capital that are effectively unbounded on a tiny invested-capital base.
For a hypergrowth, asset-light franchise a NOPAT perpetuity *under*states value — yet even the conservative reverse-DCF shows ~+40%. The offsets are real: iGaming regulation, customer concentration, a recent IPO (lock-ups/float) and a Malta domicile with material Pillar II global-minimum-tax risk into 2026/27.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT and adding net cash, the reverse-DCF fair value runs SEK 103 (zero growth) to SEK 155 (10% growth) versus the SEK 81 price — and the perpetuity is conservative for a +44%-growth, 82%-margin model. The valuation supports the franchise; the risks are qualitative.
Base SEK 95 (+17%) on continued high growth at premium margins; bull SEK 120 (growth durability + geographic/segment expansion); bear SEK 60 (regulatory shock, growth deceleration, or a Pillar II tax step-up).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -5.6% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 604% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +596.4 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 103/share (127% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 120 | +4% | +48% | 40% | Growth durability + geographic/segment expansion |
| Base | SEK 95 | -2% | +17% | 40% | Continued hypergrowth at premium margins |
| Bear | SEK 60 | -13% | -26% | 20% | Regulatory shock / deceleration / Pillar II tax |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 98 | — | +21% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 139 | 158 | 172 | 195 | 212 | 259 |
| 7.25% | 118 | 134 | 145 | 165 | 179 | 218 |
| 8.00% (base) | 103 | 116 | 126 | 143 | 155 | 188 |
| 8.75% | 91 | 103 | 112 | 126 | 136 | 165 |
| 9.50% | 82 | 93 | 100 | 113 | 122 | 147 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 81.20. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
+44% revenue growth at the highest EBIT margin in the Nordic universe — exceptional, capital-light economics.
Tiny invested capital and a net-cash balance sheet — returns on capital are effectively unbounded.
A growing, proprietary game library aggregated to online-casino operators worldwide.
Distribution across many iGaming operators provides reach and recurring play.
Even a harsh perpetuity shows ~+40% — the quality is not in the price.
Hacksaw is an exceptional, asset-light iGaming content compounder — the highest-margin, highest-quality-score name in the Nordic universe — at a price the conservative reverse-DCF still rates cheap. BUY, medium conviction; base target SEK 95 (+17%).
The economics are outstanding; the risks are regulatory, tax (Pillar II) and post-IPO. Size for the qualitative tail risks rather than the financials.