Hacksaw is a B2B iGaming content studio: it develops slots and scratchcards and distributes them — plus third-party studios' games via its OpenRGS platform — to operators on a GGR rev-share basis across 35+ licensed markets. The economics are exceptional: 82% adjusted EBIT margin, EUR 176M net cash, no debt, no goodwill, ~89% FCF conversion. A 320-game back-catalogue provides an annuity that funds new launches.
Adjusted NOPAT of SEK ~1,727M sits on an invested-capital base of just ~SEK 283M (12% of revenue), so ROIC (610%) is a meaningless artefact — this is an earnings/FCF story, not a capital-efficiency one. The whole question is the durability of 35-43% organic growth as US/regulated markets open and competition (Pragmatic Play, Evolution-owned studios) intensifies.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of SEK 1,727M at WACC-g and adding SEK 1,902M net cash over 289.2M shares: zero-growth fair value = SEK 81 (= the price), 2% = SEK 106 (+31%), 5% = SEK 206. The market is pricing in ~0% perpetual growth on a business compounding 35-43% organically — the reverse-DCF margin of safety is the gap between that implied-zero and any realistic terminal rate.
Base SEK 105 (+29%) on a conservative ~2% terminal embedded in a multi-year high-growth fade; bull SEK 150 if US/regulated expansion sustains 30%+ growth and margins hold; bear SEK 60 (-26%) if growth decelerates sharply, a key market re-regulates, or margins normalise toward peers.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -6.3% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 610% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +602.5 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 106/share (130% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 150 | +9% | +85% | 35% | US/regulated expansion sustains 30%+ growth, margins hold |
| Base | SEK 105 | -0% | +29% | 45% | Conservative ~2% embedded terminal; high-growth fade |
| Bear | SEK 60 | -13% | -26% | 20% | Growth decelerates / market re-regulates / margin normalises |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 112 | — | +38% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 143 | 162 | 177 | 201 | 218 | 267 |
| 7.25% | 121 | 138 | 150 | 170 | 184 | 225 |
| 8.00% (base) | 106 | 120 | 130 | 147 | 159 | 194 |
| 8.75% | 94 | 106 | 115 | 130 | 140 | 170 |
| 9.50% | 85 | 96 | 103 | 116 | 125 | 152 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 81.20. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
82% adjusted EBIT margin, ~89% FCF conversion — a capital-light cash machine; every growth dollar drops through.
+28% reported / +37% cc in Q1 2026, 100% organic; 320-game portfolio, 27 launches in the quarter, OpenRGS adding third-party studios.
SEK 1.9bn net cash funds Hacksaw Ventures minority studio stakes and US expansion (Connecticut licence) without dilution or debt.
Price pays nothing for terminal growth vs 35-43% cc actual — the margin of safety if growth proves even modestly durable.
APM divergence 0.0%, no goodwill, no PPA, no SBC add-back — earnings quality is as high as the headline margin.
Hacksaw is the rare 'cheap and exceptional' profile: a debt-free, net-cash, 82%-margin organic compounder with spotless accounting, where the reverse-DCF pays nothing for terminal growth. We rate it BUY, medium conviction; base target SEK 105 (+29%).
Conviction is capped at medium only by the short public track record and the inherent regulatory/hit risk of iGaming content — not by anything in the numbers, which are pristine. Watch growth durability and regulatory headlines as the thesis triggers.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open
NOPAT adjustments: transaction_costs_addback = Items Affecting Comparability (IAC) LTM = EUR 3,748k = SEK 41.0M, entirely one-off IPO advisory expenses (Note 5). Genuine non-recurring one-off (IPO late 2024/2025), so normalized per mttssn. After-tax at 8.02% = SEK 37.7M. This exactly bridges reported EBIT to company adjusted EBIT (APM divergence 0.0%).
Post-tax add-backs: No impairment in FY2025 or Q1 2026. No goodwill on balance sheet (minority buyout was a share swap creating 'no new goodwill, or any other intangible assets').
Company add-backs we reject: Company's only APM adjustment is one-off IPO IAC (which mttssn ACCEPTS as genuine non-recurring). Company does NOT add back PPA (none - no acquisition intangibles/goodwill) nor SBC (warrant LTIPs are equity-settled, subscribed-for at premium via Black-Scholes; no material SBC expense line disclosed). Clean APM - unusual for software/gaming.
Invested capital: BS from Q1 2026 (31 Mar 2026). NCI = 0 (minority in Hacksaw Gaming Ltd bought out via share swap during 2025; NCI EUR 6,770k -> 0). accumulated_oci = translation reserve EUR 1,451k = SEK 15.9M (0.7% of equity, near-immaterial but recorded). interest_bearing_debt = 0 (debt-free; only office leases). operational_cash = 2% x revenue. excess_cash subtracted. IC = equity_ex_oci - excess_cash = SEK ~283M = 12.3% of revenue: net-cash, capital-light.
Pages read — FY: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 18, 19] · Q: [1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14] 📄 p.1
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.