Hacksaw is a B2B iGaming content studio: it develops slots and scratchcards and distributes them — plus third-party studios' games via its OpenRGS platform — to operators on a GGR rev-share basis across 35+ licensed markets. The economics are exceptional: 82% adjusted EBIT margin, EUR 176M net cash, no debt, no goodwill, ~89% FCF conversion. A 320-game back-catalogue provides an annuity that funds new launches.
Adjusted NOPAT of SEK ~1,727M sits on an invested-capital base of just ~SEK 283M (12% of revenue), so ROIC (610%) is a meaningless artefact — this is an earnings/FCF story, not a capital-efficiency one. The whole question is the durability of 35-43% organic growth as US/regulated markets open and competition (Pragmatic Play, Evolution-owned studios) intensifies.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of SEK 1,727M at WACC-g and adding SEK 1,902M net cash over 289.2M shares: zero-growth fair value = SEK 81 (= the price), 2% = SEK 106 (+31%), 5% = SEK 206. The market is pricing in ~0% perpetual growth on a business compounding 35-43% organically — the reverse-DCF margin of safety is the gap between that implied-zero and any realistic terminal rate.
Base SEK 105 (+29%) on a conservative ~2% terminal embedded in a multi-year high-growth fade; bull SEK 150 if US/regulated expansion sustains 30%+ growth and margins hold; bear SEK 60 (-26%) if growth decelerates sharply, a key market re-regulates, or margins normalise toward peers.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -6.3% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 610% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +602.5 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 106/share (130% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 150 | +9% | +85% | 35% | US/regulated expansion sustains 30%+ growth, margins hold |
| Base | SEK 105 | -0% | +29% | 45% | Conservative ~2% embedded terminal; high-growth fade |
| Bear | SEK 60 | -13% | -26% | 20% | Growth decelerates / market re-regulates / margin normalises |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 112 | — | +38% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 143 | 162 | 177 | 201 | 218 | 267 |
| 7.25% | 121 | 138 | 150 | 170 | 184 | 225 |
| 8.00% (base) | 106 | 120 | 130 | 147 | 159 | 194 |
| 8.75% | 94 | 106 | 115 | 130 | 140 | 170 |
| 9.50% | 85 | 96 | 103 | 116 | 125 | 152 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 81.20. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
82% adjusted EBIT margin, ~89% FCF conversion — a capital-light cash machine; every growth dollar drops through.
+28% reported / +37% cc in Q1 2026, 100% organic; 320-game portfolio, 27 launches in the quarter, OpenRGS adding third-party studios.
SEK 1.9bn net cash funds Hacksaw Ventures minority studio stakes and US expansion (Connecticut licence) without dilution or debt.
Price pays nothing for terminal growth vs 35-43% cc actual — the margin of safety if growth proves even modestly durable.
APM divergence 0.0%, no goodwill, no PPA, no SBC add-back — earnings quality is as high as the headline margin.
Hacksaw is the rare 'cheap and exceptional' profile: a debt-free, net-cash, 82%-margin organic compounder with spotless accounting, where the reverse-DCF pays nothing for terminal growth. We rate it BUY, medium conviction; base target SEK 105 (+29%).
Conviction is capped at medium only by the short public track record and the inherent regulatory/hit risk of iGaming content — not by anything in the numbers, which are pristine. Watch growth durability and regulatory headlines as the thesis triggers.