Loomis is the global #1 in cash-in-transit and cash-management outsourcing (USA and Europe & Latin America segments), diversifying into cash automation (SafePoint) and a digital-payments platform (Loomis Pay). LTM revenue SEK30.7bn, growing 6.5% reported (organic 6.7% in Q2, currency-adjusted 9.1%) against a structurally declining core -- physical-cash usage in developed markets.
The quality picture has strengthened materially since the prior read: adjusted ROIC rose to 10.95% (from 8.9%) against an 8.62% WACC (from 8.0%) -- a spread of +2.3pp, up from +0.9pp -- and economic profit more than doubled to +SEK578m. The EBITA margin (14.0% record in Q2, 13.2% LTM) has climbed every year since FY2023 (10.7% -> 12.0% -> 12.7% -> 13.2%) on route-density and automation gains, not a cyclical bounce -- the FRO.OL-style mid-cycle re-basing rule was deliberately not applied.
The reverse-DCF read has flipped from demanding to achievable: capitalising the higher adjusted NOPAT (SEK2,717m, +35% vs the prior stub's SEK2,012m) against the SEK46.2bn enterprise value implies only ~2.6% perpetual growth -- comfortably below the 5-7% organic growth Loomis is currently delivering, versus ~7% implied growth at the prior read. The price is no longer demanding growth it may not get; it is merely full. FCF converts at 99% of adjusted NOPAT, corroborating the earnings quality.
Base case assumes a conservative 2.0% perpetual growth (well below current 5-7% organic, allowing for the secular cash-volume headwind to eventually bite): EV = FCF x 1.02 / (8.62% - 2.0%) ~= SEK41.9bn, less SEK11.4bn net debt = SEK455/share (-12% to price). Bull SEK651 (3.5% growth -- Loomis Pay scales, LatAm M&A converts to durable growth). Bear SEK332 (0.5% growth -- secular decline reasserts, margin normalises off its record high, further impairments in the four flagged CGUs).
Two watch items temper the base case: (i) roughly 1pp of the LTM margin gain traces to a non-structural precious-metals/FXGS trading tailwind (International+FXGS revenue share up ~1-2pp) that could reverse; (ii) an unquantified ~SEK300-400m unprovided Danish legal tail (Supreme Court dismissed Loomis' appeal Nov-2025, three straight adverse rulings on liability) is a real, if modest (~1% of market cap), risk to the balance-sheet assumption.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~10.4%, limited by ROIC 11% ≈ WACC 9%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 336/share (65% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 651 | ≥10% | +25% | 35% | Loomis Pay scales + LatAm M&A (Transportadora, Hermes) converts to durable growth (g~3.5%) |
| Base | SEK 455 | ≥10% | -12% | 40% | Conservative g~2.0%, below current 5-7% organic -- normal margin-of-safety discipline |
| Bear | SEK 332 | -1% | -36% | 25% | Secular decline reasserts, margin normalises off record high, CGU impairments recur (g~0.5%) |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 493 | — | -5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.12% | 488 | 532 | 562 | 610 | 642 | 727 |
| 7.87% | 401 | 433 | 454 | 486 | 507 | 562 |
| 8.62% (base) | 336 | 358 | 372 | 393 | 407 | 438 |
| 9.37% | 284 | 299 | 308 | 321 | 328 | 343 |
| 10.12% | 243 | 252 | 257 | 263 | 266 | 267 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 519.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Leased branch/cash-centre/SafePoint/vehicle network (51% of tangible fixed assets) creates high barriers and improving unit economics as density scales.
EBITA margin has risen every year since FY2023 (10.7%->13.2% LTM) on automation and mix shift into Automated Solutions, not a cycle.
Transportadora del Interior (Argentina, closed) doubles local scale; Hermes Transportes Blindados (Peru) tender expected August 2026 -- growth optionality not yet in the numbers.
Digital-payments platform remains the unproven bull-case lever if it scales against entrenched incumbents.
FCF/NOPAT conversion 99%; net debt/EBITDA down to 1.60x from 1.75x; dividend raised to SEK20.00 (from 14.00) while buybacks paused in favour of the LatAm pipeline.
Thesis holds and strengthens on fundamentals: ROIC-WACC spread widened to +2.3pp from +0.9pp, EP more than doubled, and the reverse-DCF's implied growth compressed from ~7% to ~2.6% as NOPAT (+35%) outran the price (+12% since the prior read). But the SEK519.5 price has kept pace with the improvement -- base case is still -12%, so there is no margin of safety today. HOLD, MEDIUM conviction, base target raised to SEK455 (from SEK420).
The base target move (420->455, +8%) is fully explained by the higher, cleaner NOPAT base (impairments correctly added back and restored to invested capital) and a modestly higher WACC (8.62% vs the prior 8.0% house default) -- not by a re-rating of the growth story. A confirmed inflection in Loomis Pay economics, or a pullback toward SEK455, would upgrade the call; absent either, full valuation with genuine (if not exceptional) quality is a hold, not a buy.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unit anchor: equity per share x share count vs total equity | 12,432 | Key ratios: 'Equity per share, SEK' 185.83 and 'Number of shares outstanding (millions)' 66.9, against total equity 12,436 on the balance sheet (p.11) 📄 p.21 | Disclosure-internal unit proof, stronger than a market-cap plausibility check because it uses no external data: 185.83 x 66.9 = 12,432 against a reported 12,436, a 0.03% tie. A per-share figure quoted in whole kronor multiplied by a share count in millions can only reconcile to a balance-sheet equity line if that line is denominated in MILLIONS of SEK. Rules out the 1000x mislabel class of defect at source. |
| LTM revenue (R12) | 30,736 | Condensed consolidated income statement, R12 column 📄 p.10 | Company publishes R12 directly. Independently re-derived from the quarterly segment revenue series (Q2 Note 4, p.16): 7,644 + 7,711 + 7,491 + 7,891 = 30,737, a 1 SEK m rounding difference. Used as the denominator for margins and for the 2%-of-revenue operational-cash test. |
| LTM EBIT (R12) | 3,437 | Condensed consolidated income statement, R12 column 📄 p.10 | Base for NOPAT. Re-derived from quarterly EBIT 938 + 570 + 896 + 1,032 = 3,436 (1 rounding). Note the Q4 2025 collapse to 570 -- that quarter carries the SEK 314m goodwill impairment, which is exactly why the LTM window captures it. |
| LTM income before taxes / income tax (R12) | -952 | Condensed consolidated income statement, R12 column (IBT 2,812, tax -952) 📄 p.10 | Sets the LTM effective tax rate at 33.85%, matching the company's own R12 'Tax rate, %' of 33.9% (p.21). Used for nopat_reported_proxy and for tax-effecting the pre-tax one-off add-backs. |
| FY2025 EBIT (anchor) | 3,029 | Consolidated statement of income 📄 p.122 | FY anchor for the LTM roll-forward and the reference point for every FY footnote used below (revenue 30,427, IAC -568, net income 1,582). |
| FY2025 goodwill impairment | -314 | Note 13, goodwill roll-forward: opening accumulated impairment -254, impairment losses for the year -314, closing accumulated impairment -568 📄 p.145 | ESCALATION REASON 1. Non-cash, non-operating, recognised in Q4 2025 and therefore inside the Jul-2025..Jun-2026 LTM window. Added back to NOPAT at FULL pre-tax value because FY Note 11 (p.140) confirms it produced no tax deduction; simultaneously restored to invested capital via the 568 cumulative accumulated-impairment balance so the write-off cannot flatter ROIC. |
| Impairment-testing assumptions: CGU discount rates and goodwill allocation | 8,629 | Note 13, Goodwill / WACC by cash generating unit 📄 p.144 | Source of the group WACC used for the capital charge: goodwill-weighted mean of the disclosed after-tax CGU rates = 8.62%. Also the basis for judging residual impairment risk -- USA carries 4,274 (50% of goodwill) at 9.1% and is the strongest-performing segment, while every CGU the company's own sensitivity test flagged (UK 155 plus Czech/Slovakia/Argentina inside 'Other' 135) now carries under SEK 300m in total. |
| Impairment-testing sensitivity and CGU scope | -314 | Note 13: '-1pp long-term growth and operating margin, +1pp WACC ... indicated an impairment need in the UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Argentina cash generating units. An impairment loss of SEK 314 million was recognized in total for these cash generating units during 2025. The impairment loss comes mainly from the UK.' 📄 p.144 | Corrects the escalation brief's shorthand: the 314 spans FOUR CGUs, not one, and the note discloses NO carrying amount, recoverable amount or headroom for any of them, so no precise UK attribution is possible from disclosure. Terminal growth 2.0% (Nordics 0%, Turkey 5%, Argentina 7%). UK goodwill fell 481 -> 155 over the year, consistent with the UK being the dominant share once ~10.6% group-wide goodwill FX translation is allowed for. |
| Cumulative accumulated goodwill impairment (IC restoration) | 568 | Note 13, closing accumulated impairment losses Dec 31, 2025 📄 p.145 | Added back to invested capital. No translation line runs through the impairment roll, so the balance is SEK-fixed and directly usable; Q2 Note 6 confirms no further goodwill impairment in H1 2026. Restoring it costs 0.33pp of ROIC -- the deliberate price of not letting write-offs shrink the denominator. |
| FY2024 Loomis Pay intangible impairment (IC restoration) | 52 | Note 9 Items affecting comparability, 'Impairment of intangible assets within segment Loomis Pay' 2024 column 📄 p.139 | Third component of cumulative_writeoff_addback. It does not appear as a separate impairment row in the Note 13 intangibles roll-forward because it was derecognised through the 2024 'Disposals/write-offs' lines (-126 gross / +67 accumulated amortisation), i.e. it has already left the carrying amount and must be restored to invested capital. |
| Q2 2026 write-down of IT project | -110 | Note 6 Items affecting comparability, 'Write-down of IT project' 📄 p.18 | ESCALATION REASON 2. A new line with no 2025 precedent, recognised in Q2 2026 and sitting in Group-wide functions per the segment income statement (p.17, IAC -110 in the Group-wide column). Restored to invested capital identically to the goodwill charge -- a written-off capitalised IT project consumed real capital. TAX TREATMENT DIFFERS FROM THE GOODWILL LEG: this charge is added back NET OF TAX at the Swedish statutory 20.6% (= SEK 87.3m), not at full value. Nothing in the filings supports non-deductibility -- FY2025 Note 11 predates the charge and cannot speak to it, and the interim rate cannot discriminate (Q2 2026 ran 30.0% with the -110 and the +103 earn-out reversal offsetting) -- and a written-off capitalised internal IT asset is ordinarily deductible. The 20.6% Swedish rate is used rather than the 33.85% Group blend because Group-wide functions is the Swedish head-office/Parent perimeter (FY Note 4, p.133) and a tax shield is a MARGINAL, jurisdictional question; the Group blend is inflated by the non-deductible goodwill and by SEK 117m of unrecognised loss DTAs. Alternative at 33.85% disclosed in post_tax_addbacks._note (add-back 72.8, NOPAT 2,702.7, ROIC 10.89%, EP 563.4) -- a 0.06pp ROIC difference. |
| LTM restructuring costs (Europe and Latin America) | -38 | Note 6 Items affecting comparability 📄 p.18 | LTM = FY2025 -251 - H1_2025 -213 + H1_2026 0 = -38. Added back. The programme has now run through 2024 (-185), 2025 (-251) and is currently dormant; recurrence over multiple years is flagged in qualitative_flags rather than used to deny the add-back, since the LTM amount is only 1.1% of adjusted EBIT. |
| LTM litigation and claims provisions | -65 | Note 6 Items affecting comparability, 'Provision for litigation and claims' 📄 p.18 | LTM = FY2025 -42 - 0 + H1_2026 -23 = -65. Relates to the Danish predation dispute and the Chilean cartel claim (FY Note 28, p.160), not to ordinary cash-in-transit claims reserves, which sit inside operating expenses (FY Note 5: 'Risk, claims and insurance expenses' 683). Added back as non-operating legal exposure. |
| LTM M&A-related IAC (Burroughs earn-out reversal) | 113 | Note 6 Items affecting comparability, 'M&A related IAC ... mainly related to the reversal of earnout provisions' 📄 p.18 | LTM = FY2025 +39 - H1_2025 +29 + H1_2026 +103 = +113. This is a GAIN and is REMOVED from adjusted NOPAT rather than added back. Removing gains while adding back costs is the only symmetric treatment; keeping it would let a provision-estimate reversal masquerade as operating profit. Confirmed as a USA-segment item (p.17, IAC +103 in the USA column) and traceable to the Burroughs deferred consideration, which Note 12 (FY p.143) shows falling from a preliminary SEK 314m to SEK 93m as the purchase price allocation was finalised. |
| LTM acquisition-related costs and revenue | -74 | Condensed consolidated income statement, 'Other income and expenses', R12 column 📄 p.10 | Added back as transaction_costs_addback. Cross-checked two ways: FY2025 -110 - H1_2025 -57 + H1_2026 -21 = -74, and the Q2 APM table (p.23) adds back the same 21 / 57 / 110 amounts. FY Note 12 (p.143) defines the line as transaction costs, revaluation of deferred and contingent consideration, and restructuring/integration of acquired operations -- deal costs, not route-operating costs. |
| LTM amortisation of acquisition-related intangible assets (REJECTED add-back) | 145 | Alternative performance measures, EBITA bridge: 'Adding back amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets' 69 (H1 2026) / 68 (H1 2025) / 144 (FY2025) 📄 p.23 | LTM = 144 - 68 + 69 = 145. mttssn REFUSES this add-back and keeps it in operating expense: amortisation of acquired customer-contract portfolios is the real consumption of assets Loomis paid cash for, and a serial acquirer adding it back reports acquired earnings without acquired cost. This single rejection is the entire 3.54% APM divergence. |
| Company APM: Operating income (EBITA), R12 | 4,069 | Revenue and Profitability table, R12 column 📄 p.3 | Used as company_adjusted_ebit in the bridge -- Loomis' own headline profit APM, defined (FY p.174) as earnings before interest, tax, PPA amortisation, acquisition-related costs and revenue, and items affecting comparability. Re-derived from quarterly EBITA 1,006 + 1,014 + 946 + 1,102 = 4,068 (1 rounding). |
| Quarterly EBITA / EBIT / IAC series (LTM control) | 4,069 | Note 4 Segment overview, quarterly tables 2025 Q1-Q4 and 2026 Q1-Q2 📄 p.16 | The independent control that makes the LTM window auditable rather than trusted: it lets every R12 figure be re-summed from disclosed quarters and confirms the SEK 314m goodwill impairment sits in Q4 2025 (segment IAC -360 that quarter) and therefore inside the LTM window. |
| Balance-sheet equity (Jun 30, 2026) | 12,436 | Consolidated balance sheet 📄 p.11 | Latest interim snapshot used for invested capital, not the FY anchor. Entirely attributable to owners of the Parent (no NCI line). |
| Other reserves (OCI proxy) | 420 | Consolidated balance sheet, equity section 📄 p.11 | Stripped from equity per the OCI rule. Composition per FY Note 21 (p.149): translation differences, net-investment hedging net of tax, share-based remuneration and share swap agreements -- and the FY equity table (p.125) shows buy-back cancellations charged here too, so this is a mixed bucket that cannot be cleanly decomposed. Swung -167 -> +420 on +607 of H1 2026 translation gains as SEK weakened. Caveat recorded in invested_capital._oci_note; sensitivity ~0.19pp of ROIC. |
| Interest-bearing debt excluding leases | 7,232 | Consolidated balance sheet, loans payable current 1,073 + non-current 6,159 📄 p.11 | Leases tracked separately; the cash-processing credit facility deliberately excluded in symmetry with the exclusion of the matching float asset from cash. |
| Lease liabilities (IFRS 16) | 6,648 | Consolidated balance sheet, interest-bearing lease liabilities current 1,750 + non-current 4,898 📄 p.11 | Capitalised into invested capital. Leased branches, cash centres, SafePoints and armoured vehicles (FY Note 15, p.147) are 51% of the tangible operating fixed-asset base -- the primary means of delivering the service, not peripheral leases. No NOPAT add-back: IFRS 16 already books the lease interest below EBIT. |
| Lease interest expense and off-balance-sheet residual leases | -254 | Note 15 Right-of-use assets: interest expense for lease liabilities -254; short-term lease cost 13; low-value lease cost 50; average incremental borrowing rate 3.91% 📄 p.147 | Proves the no-add-back decision (interest already below EBIT) and sizes the residual off-IFRS-16 exposure at SEK 63m, i.e. 1.6% of LTM EBIT -- below the 2% materiality bar, so operating_lease_eva_split stays 0 rather than being assumed away. |
| Net pension liability | 269 | Consolidated balance sheet: provisions for pensions 551 less pension plan assets 282 📄 p.11 | Added to invested capital as a debt-like claim. Composition per FY Note 24 (pp.156-157): the UK scheme is ~39% of group defined-benefit obligations (funded, closed to accrual since 2013, in a SEK 120m surplus at Dec-2025, with a GBP 85m parent guarantee), Switzerland ~44% (funded, roughly balanced), and France ~16% unfunded retirement-indemnity and jubilee plans of SEK 466m -- it is the French unfunded block that drives the net liability. IAS 19 net interest is booked as a financial item, so no NOPAT reclassification arises. |
| Corporate cash excluding cash-processing float | 2,692 | Note 7 Cash and cash equivalents: 8,033 less inventory of cash within cash processing operations -3,399 less prepayments from customers -1,942 📄 p.18 | The basis for the excess-cash test instead of gross balance-sheet cash. SEK 5,341m of the reported 8,033 is customer float Loomis transports and stores, matched by 'Liabilities, cash processing operations' of 5,306; FY Note 20 (p.149) states it is entirely separate from Loomis' own liquid funds and financed by dedicated facilities used solely for that purpose. Running the 2% rule on the gross figure would have inflated ROIC by roughly 3pp on presentation alone. |
| Cash-processing float liabilities (excluded in symmetry) | 5,306 | Consolidated balance sheet, 'Liabilities, cash processing operations' 📄 p.11 | Excluded from interest-bearing debt exactly as the matching float asset is excluded from cash. FY Note 20 (p.149) splits the Dec-2025 balance into customer prepayments/liabilities 939 and a dedicated credit facility 3,673 whose interest is booked in production expenses. Asset and liability are within SEK 35m of each other, so the net IC effect of the whole treatment is under 0.2% -- but excluding one side without the other would have been a genuine error. |
| Net debt (company definition, R12) | 11,433 | Key ratios, R12 column; definition at FY p.174 📄 p.21 | Used only for roic_reported_proxy's like-for-like base against the prior stub. The company's own definition explicitly excludes funds for cash-processing activities, independently validating the float treatment above. Net debt / EBITDA 1.60x. |
| Free cash flow (R12, excluding IFRS 16 effects) | 2,719 | Consolidated statement of cash flows excluding IFRS 16 effects, additional information, R12 column 📄 p.13 | Company's own FCF APM used directly for primary.free_cash_flow. FCF / adjusted NOPAT = 0.99, i.e. earnings are converting fully into cash -- a meaningful corroboration that the adjusted NOPAT of 2,740 is not an accounting artefact. |
| FY2025 Group tax reconciliation (non-deductible expenses delta; Pillar Two) | -77 | Note 11 Income tax, GROUP reconciliation of effective tax expense: non-deductible expenses -114 (-4.8%) in 2025 vs -37 (-1.6%) in 2024; also Effect from Pillar Two -4 (-0.3%) and tax effect of losses where no deferred tax asset is recognised -117 (-4.9%). Swedish base rate disclosed as 20.6%. 📄 p.140 | THE evidence for withholding the tax shield on the SEK 314m goodwill leg, and it rests on the GROUP delta, not on narrative. Non-deductible expenses deteriorated by SEK 77m year-on-year; a SEK 314m goodwill write-down in a UK-dominated CGU group at the UK's 25% rate implies SEK 78.5m of non-deductible tax cost -- a near-exact fit, with no other disclosed FY2025 event of that magnitude. DELIBERATELY NOT RELIED ON: the narrative sentence 'Tax related to non-deductible expenses is primarily related to write-down of goodwill' sits at the foot of the PARENT COMPANY reconciliation on the same page, immediately after the parent's non-taxable-dividend sentence, and fits the Parent's own numbers at least as well (parent non-deductible -243 / 20.6% = ~1,180 against the Parent's SEK -1,161m impairment of participations in Group companies); it is ambiguous as Group evidence and is excluded. The note also supplies the Swedish statutory rate of 20.6% used as the marginal shield on the IT-project write-down, quantifies Pillar Two as immaterial (-4 MSEK, 0.3pp), and identifies SEK -117m of unrecognised loss DTAs (SME/Pay, Loomis Pay) as a recurring drag inside the 33.5% headline rate -- one of the two reasons the blended effective rate is not the right marginal rate for a Swedish deduction. |
| FY2025 acquisitions / purchase price allocations | 141 | Note 12 Acquisitions of subsidiaries 📄 p.143 | Burroughs Inc (acquired 1 Jun 2025): total consideration SEK 141m after the deferred component was revised from a preliminary 314 to 93 -- the source of the +113 LTM earn-out reversal gain we remove. Goodwill fell from a preliminary 391 to 220; intangible surplus values 264 (customer contracts 12yr, software 7yr, trade names indefinite); transaction costs ~24 booked to Other income and expenses. Contributed SEK 544m revenue and SEK -59m net income from acquisition to year-end. Other immaterial acquisitions: consideration 166, goodwill 107, intangibles 43. Confirms the recent-acquisition IC/earnings distortion pattern is NOT material here (Burroughs is ~2% of revenue and closed 7 months before the FY balance date, so both LTM earnings and the balance sheet carry it consistently). |
| Contingent liabilities and legal disputes | 2,843 | Note 11 Contingent liabilities, group (Jun 30, 2026); detail at FY Note 28, p.160 📄 p.20 | Not adjusted for, but sized as a tail risk. The Danish predation/exclusivity claim totals approximately DKK 321m plus interest (roughly SEK 470m); Loomis lost at first instance in 2021 and on appeal in March 2024, and in November 2025 the Supreme Court dismissed its appeal, sending the damages question back to the first-instance court. Loomis has provided SEK 108m in total (66 in Dec-2024 for exclusivity, 42 in 2025 for predation) and explicitly reports no further provision because outflow is not deemed probable. The Chilean Competition Authority cartel case seeks a USD 6.4m fine. Unprovided downside is therefore roughly SEK 300-400m -- about 1% of market capitalisation and 0.5pp of ROIC if it crystallised. Flagged, not accrued. |
| FY2025 operating expense structure | 27,397 | Note 5 Operating expenses, distribution by type 📄 p.136 | Confirms the cost architecture behind the margin thesis: personnel 14,783 (54% of total expenses), vehicles and fuel 1,637, premises 1,028, subcontractors 2,072, risk/claims/insurance 683. A labour-and-route business, which is what makes the leased fleet and branch estate the primary operating asset and validates the retail/Konsumenttjanster checklist choice. Also reconciles D&A: the note's 3,500 total includes the 314 goodwill impairment; 3,500 - 314 = 3,186 = the cash-flow-statement D&A. |
| Provisions for claims reserves and other provisions | 1,279 | Note 25, closing balance Dec 31, 2025 (claims reserves 819 + other provisions 460) 📄 p.159 | Reviewed and NOT added to invested capital. Claims reserves are ordinary operating provisions for cash losses and IBNR in a cash-in-transit business (FY2025 flow: new provisions 405, utilised -449) -- an operating liability, not a financing claim, and already reflected in working capital. Only the DISPUTE-related portion inside 'other provisions' is treated as non-operating, and only via the P&L add-back of the SEK 65m LTM litigation charge. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.