Loomis is the global leader in cash-in-transit and cash-management outsourcing, expanding into cash-automation (SafePoint) and digital payments (Loomis Pay). The core is a scale, route-density business with high barriers, but it faces the secular decline of physical cash usage in developed markets.
Adjusted ROIC of 8.9% only just exceeds the 8% WACC, so economic profit is modestly positive (+SEK 196M). The reverse-DCF implies the SEK 459 price embeds ~7% perpetual growth — a demanding assumption for a business whose core volume base is in structural, if slow, decline.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of SEK 2,012M and bridging through SEK 10,699M net debt, the reverse-DCF fair value sits well below the SEK 459 price across growth scenarios — the market is paying for growth (Loomis Pay scaling, cash-cycle resilience) that the secular trend works against. With ROIC barely above WACC, that implied growth is the crux.
Base SEK 420 (−8%, modest de-rate toward through-cycle economics); bull SEK 540 (Loomis Pay reaches scale and re-rates the growth profile); bear SEK 330 (accelerated cash decline + leverage pressure).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~8.7%, limited by ROIC 9% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 268/share (60% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 540 | ≥9% | +20% | 30% | Loomis Pay reaches scale, re-rates growth |
| Base | SEK 420 | ≥9% | -6% | 40% | Modest de-rate; thin economic spread |
| Bear | SEK 330 | ≥9% | -26% | 30% | Accelerated cash decline + leverage pressure |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 429 | — | -4% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 413 | 447 | 470 | 505 | 529 | 591 |
| 7.25% | 329 | 350 | 365 | 385 | 399 | 430 |
| 8.00% (base) | 268 | 281 | 288 | 299 | 305 | 315 |
| 8.75% | 221 | 228 | 231 | 234 | 234 | 229 |
| 9.50% | 184 | 186 | 186 | 183 | 179 | 162 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 448.20. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Scale and network density in cash logistics create high barriers and pricing power.
Cash-automation services raise customer stickiness and margins per route.
A digital-payments platform that, if it scales, re-rates the growth story — the bull case.
Cash usage declines slowly and is counter-cyclically resilient in stress periods.
Steady free cash flow funds a dividend and buyback while the model transitions.
Loomis is a moaty cash-logistics leader whose price already discounts a growth profile the secular cash trend makes hard to achieve. We rate it HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target SEK 420 (−8%).
Evidence that Loomis Pay is scaling profitably would change the thesis; absent that, the implied growth looks too high for a business whose core is in slow decline.