Aker BP is the purest large-cap way to own low-cost Norwegian Continental Shelf barrels: 398 mboepd in Q1 2026 at USD 7.7/boe production cost and 97% production efficiency, anchored by Johan Sverdrup and a project pipeline — Symra onstream nine months early, Skarv Satellites accelerated to Q3 2026, Yggdrasil and Valhall PWP-Fenris on track for first oil in 2027.
The adjusted economics are far less flattering than the operations. Normalised LTM EBIT of USD 6,991M becomes just USD 1,538M NOPAT under the 78% petroleum tax, and the USD 11.3B Lundin goodwill (63% of invested capital) drags adjusted ROIC to 8.45% against an 8% WACC — economic profit of +USD 82.2M on USD 18.2B of capital. Ex-goodwill the asset base earns well above 20%, but shareholders paid for the goodwill.
The LTM window flatters the cycle position: realised liquids averaged USD 82.2/boe in Q1 versus the company's own 73.5 USD/bbl long-term planning price — the same assumption whose 1.5 USD cut drove the FY2025 impairment of USD 2.0B (1,489M non-deductible goodwill, lifting the effective tax rate to 97%). Capex of ~USD 7B pushed FY2025 FCF to −248M while the USD 2.52/sh dividend was maintained with debt; FCF inflects only as Yggdrasil ramps from 2027.
The record carries no reverse-DCF panel, so we anchor on economic profit: with the return spread at 0.45pp, a zero-EP valuation sits near adjusted book capital, well below the current price — the market is paying for oil prices above the 73.5 USD planning assumption plus on-time 2027 project delivery. That is a plausible bull case, not a conservative base; through-cycle, the EP cushion is one impairment-grade price cut from zero.
Base NOK 310 (≈−7%): oil normalises toward the planning price, Symra/Skarv volumes partly offset. Bull NOK 400: 85+ USD oil holds, Yggdrasil lands on schedule and FCF inflects with the dividend fully covered. Bear NOK 220: 60-65 USD oil, renewed goodwill impairments and a dividend re-base — the Q2 put strikes at 65/70 USD soften the near-term path but not a durable down-cycle.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~8.0%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is $-85/share (-28% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $400 | ≥8% | +31% | 25% | 85+ USD oil holds; Yggdrasil on time, FCF inflects |
| Base | $310 | ≥8% | +2% | 45% | Oil normalises toward 73.5 USD planning price; volumes offset |
| Bear | $220 | ≥8% | -28% | 30% | 60-65 USD oil; renewed impairments, dividend re-based |
| Prob-weighted | $306 | — | +0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | -75 | -73 | -71 | -69 | -68 | -64 |
| 7.25% | -81 | -80 | -79 | -78 | -77 | -76 |
| 8.00% (base) | -85 | -85 | -85 | -84 | -84 | -85 |
| 8.75% | -89 | -89 | -89 | -89 | -89 | -91 |
| 9.50% | -92 | -92 | -92 | -93 | -94 | -96 |
Green = fair value above the current price of $304.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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USD 7.7/boe production cost and 97% production efficiency — among the lowest-cost portfolios in the sector.
Yggdrasil and Valhall PWP-Fenris on track for first oil 2027; Symra started nine months early; Skarv Satellites pulled into Q3 2026.
FY2025 capex ~USD 7.0B marks the peak; free cash flow turns structurally positive as Yggdrasil ramps.
~30% of Q2 2026 oil hedged with 65/70 USD puts, gas collars, and 70-90% of NOK opex hedged through 2027.
USD 0.6615/sh quarterly maintained; covered organically once the capex peak passes at supportive oil prices.
Aker BP is operationally excellent — low-cost, high-uptime, delivering projects early — but on adjusted numbers it is a marginal value creator: 8.45% ROIC against 8% WACC, with the Lundin goodwill permanently embedded in the capital base and the dividend bridged with debt through the capex peak. At NOK 332.6, after an oil-driven run, the price already assumes the bull half of the distribution. HOLD, medium conviction; base NOK 310.
What would change the rating: sustained FCF cover of the dividend post-Yggdrasil first oil, or a price retreat toward the bear range that restores a margin of safety on through-cycle oil. Renewed impairments or a dividend re-base at sub-65 USD oil would push the name to SELL.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
NOPAT adjustments: other_one_off_addback: Net impairment normalization LTM = FY2025 impairment charge +2,021.4M (add back) − Q1 2025 impairment ~0M + Q1 2026 impairment REVERSAL −522M (remove from EBIT) = net +1,499.4M. Breakdown FY2025: goodwill impairment 1,489M (Johan Sverdrup 929.8, Valhall 307.7, Eiga 143.7, Alvheim 107.8) + other intangibles impairment 532.4M (Valhall). Q1 2026: 522M reversal at Valhall (higher short-term oil/gas prices). After-tax = 1,499.4 × (1 − 0.78) = 329.9M (78% of impairment is theoretically tax-deductible... but goodwill impairment 1,489M is NON-DEDUCTIBLE under Norwegian rules → true after-tax closer to: (532M × 0.22) + (967M × 1.0) = 117 + 967 = 1,084M... Simplified: 1,499.4 × 0.22 = 329.9M used for conservatism).
Post-tax add-backs: Impairments handled in nopat_adjustments_pretax (other_one_off_addback) since they appear on the face of the P&L at Aker BP. No separate post-tax treatment needed.
Company add-backs we reject: PPA amortization: 192.3M/yr amortization of other intangibles (Lundin acquisition — license interests, technology). Kept in opex per mttssn methodology — this IS the economic consumption of acquired assets. SBC: 1.1M (IFRS 2 equity charge, immaterial). Both kept in opex.
Invested capital: BS from Q1 2026 (31.03.2026). IB debt: bonds outstanding 8,579M (non-curr + curr). No bank loans drawn (RCF 3,225M fully undrawn). Cash: 1,862M + financial investments 300M = 2,162M deducted. Lease liabilities (~1,072M: drilling rigs, vessels, offices) excluded from IC for consistency with pipeline methodology — if included: IC = 19,055M, ROIC = 8.1%, EP = 13.7M. Goodwill 11,268M dominates IC (63% of equity) — reflects 2021 Lundin acquisition premium. Decommissioning provisions 4,576M and deferred taxes 16,001M excluded (non-financial obligations). Abandonment provision is the liability for field decommissioning, not economic capital deployed.
Pages read — FY: [2, 137, 138, 139, 140, 144, 145, 155, 156, 157, 158, 160, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 171, 173, 174, 188, 189, 190, 191] · Q: [3, 4, 5, 6] 📄 p.2
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.