Sweco is Europe's leading architecture and engineering consultancy, a capital-light, people-based business with strong positions in the structural-growth themes of energy transition, water, urbanisation and infrastructure. A disciplined serial-acquirer model compounds value via accretive bolt-ons. Adjusted ROIC of 13.6% and +SEK 987M economic profit confirm genuine value creation.
But quality this visible is rarely cheap: the reverse-DCF's −35% is a perpetuity artefact, and the more useful reading is that the SEK 134 price embeds ~5.3% perpetual growth — defensible for a pricing-power consultancy with M&A optionality, so the equity is fully valued. Notably, the screen's own valuation percentile (46) also reads richish, so screen and deep-dive agree it is not cheap.
With ROIC well above WACC, the implied-growth lens governs: at SEK 134 the market prices ~5.3% perpetual growth, reasonable given organic growth plus the accretive acquisition machine. That makes the equity fairly-to-fully valued rather than offering a margin of safety. Base near the price.
Base SEK 135 (flat); bull SEK 165 (margin expansion + sustained accretive M&A in energy-transition and water); bear SEK 105 (European construction/public-budget slowdown compresses billings and margins).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~11.8%, limited by ROIC 12% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 76/share (57% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 165 | ≥12% | +24% | 30% | Margin expansion + accretive M&A |
| Base | SEK 135 | ≥12% | +2% | 45% | Fair: price embeds ~5.3% perpetual growth |
| Bear | SEK 105 | ≥12% | -21% | 25% | European construction/public-budget slowdown |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 136 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 108 | 119 | 126 | 138 | 147 | 170 |
| 7.25% | 89 | 97 | 103 | 112 | 118 | 134 |
| 8.00% (base) | 76 | 82 | 86 | 92 | 97 | 108 |
| 8.75% | 66 | 70 | 73 | 78 | 81 | 89 |
| 9.50% | 57 | 61 | 63 | 66 | 68 | 73 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 132.90. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Energy transition, water, climate adaptation and infrastructure underpin multi-year billable demand.
A disciplined bolt-on M&A model adds value at accretive multiples — the core compounding engine.
People-based model with minimal capital needs converts earnings to cash and supports high ROIC.
Specialist expertise and scale support real price increases above wage inflation.
Breadth across geographies and end-markets dampens single-market cyclicality.
Sweco is a high-quality, capital-light compounder at a full price on which screen and deep-dive agree. We rate it HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 135 (flat) — a name to accumulate on weakness rather than chase.
We would upgrade toward SEK 105–110, where the quality and acquisition optionality would come at a more reasonable implied growth.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.