Sweco is Europe's leading architecture and engineering consultancy, a capital-light, people-based business with strong positions in the structural-growth themes of energy transition, water, urbanisation and infrastructure. A disciplined serial-acquirer model compounds value via accretive bolt-ons. Adjusted ROIC of 13.6% and +SEK 987M economic profit confirm genuine value creation.
But quality this visible is rarely cheap: the reverse-DCF's −35% is a perpetuity artefact, and the more useful reading is that the SEK 134 price embeds ~5.3% perpetual growth — defensible for a pricing-power consultancy with M&A optionality, so the equity is fully valued. Notably, the screen's own valuation percentile (46) also reads richish, so screen and deep-dive agree it is not cheap.
With ROIC well above WACC, the implied-growth lens governs: at SEK 134 the market prices ~5.3% perpetual growth, reasonable given organic growth plus the accretive acquisition machine. That makes the equity fairly-to-fully valued rather than offering a margin of safety. Base near the price.
Base SEK 135 (flat); bull SEK 165 (margin expansion + sustained accretive M&A in energy-transition and water); bear SEK 105 (European construction/public-budget slowdown compresses billings and margins).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~13.0%, limited by ROIC 14% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 81/share (60% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 165 | ≥13% | +23% | 30% | Margin expansion + accretive M&A |
| Base | SEK 135 | ≥13% | +1% | 45% | Fair: price embeds ~5.3% perpetual growth |
| Bear | SEK 105 | +10% | -22% | 25% | European construction/public-budget slowdown |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 136 | — | +2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 115 | 127 | 135 | 149 | 159 | 185 |
| 7.25% | 95 | 104 | 111 | 121 | 128 | 147 |
| 8.00% (base) | 81 | 88 | 93 | 100 | 106 | 120 |
| 8.75% | 70 | 75 | 79 | 85 | 89 | 99 |
| 9.50% | 62 | 66 | 69 | 73 | 76 | 83 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 134.30. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Energy transition, water, climate adaptation and infrastructure underpin multi-year billable demand.
A disciplined bolt-on M&A model adds value at accretive multiples — the core compounding engine.
People-based model with minimal capital needs converts earnings to cash and supports high ROIC.
Specialist expertise and scale support real price increases above wage inflation.
Breadth across geographies and end-markets dampens single-market cyclicality.
Sweco is a high-quality, capital-light compounder at a full price on which screen and deep-dive agree. We rate it HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 135 (flat) — a name to accumulate on weakness rather than chase.
We would upgrade toward SEK 105–110, where the quality and acquisition optionality would come at a more reasonable implied growth.