Medistim is a high-quality single-platform medtech: it develops and sells the MiraQ system for intraoperative flow measurement and ultrasound imaging in cardiac and vascular surgery, in-house. The model is razor-and-blades — flow probes (NOK 292M) + imaging probes (NOK 24M) + procedure/lease revenue (NOK 103M) together ~60% of sales — a consumables annuity on an installed base of >4,000 MiraQ systems that creates high clinical-workflow switching costs. FY2025 showed the operating leverage: revenue +24.4% to NOK 700M and EBIT +49.7% to NOK 196M (28.0% margin, from 23.3%), with own products at a 29.6% segment margin.
We make one conservative adjustment: reversing the in-house R&D that Medistim capitalises under IAS 38 (net NOK 17.5M into 'product under development') back to expense — which lowers our NOPAT relative to reported and is deliberately stringent. SBC is kept in opex; there is no PPA-amortization distortion (the only goodwill is a small Norwegian distribution arm). The result is exceptional: adjusted ROIC ~48% on a tiny NOK 289M invested-capital base, EP +NOK 116M, net cash. The problem is price — the market already capitalises ~15% sustained growth, so the reverse-DCF is deeply negative even on optimistic assumptions.
On adjusted NOPAT (NOK 139M) the reverse-DCF is ~−30% to the NOK 224 price at 5% growth and still ~−16% at 10% (PEBV ~2.1, implied 5-year growth ~14.6%) — an exceptional compounder whose quality is fully, arguably richly, priced. The case requires underwriting sustained high-teens growth.
Base NOK 215 (the stock prices ~13-14% growth — a slight haircut for the demanding rDCF); bull NOK 265 if international MiraQ adoption keeps revenue compounding in the high-teens; bear NOK 175 if growth decelerates to high-single-digits and the multiple compresses.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 14.6% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 48% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +40.2 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 133/share (60% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 265 | +19% | +18% | 30% | High-teens growth sustains; international MiraQ adoption |
| Base | NOK 215 | +13% | -4% | 45% | Prices ~13-14% growth; quality premium |
| Bear | NOK 175 | +8% | -22% | 25% | Growth decelerates to high-single-digits; multiple compresses |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 220 | — | -2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 178 | 200 | 216 | 243 | 262 | 316 |
| 7.25% | 152 | 170 | 184 | 205 | 221 | 265 |
| 8.00% (base) | 133 | 149 | 160 | 178 | 191 | 227 |
| 8.75% | 119 | 132 | 142 | 157 | 168 | 199 |
| 9.50% | 108 | 119 | 127 | 141 | 150 | 177 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 224.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Probes + procedure revenue ~60% of sales on >4,000 installed MiraQ systems — recurring, high-margin.
FY2025 revenue +24.4%, EBIT +49.7% (28.0% margin) — scale on a capital-light base.
MiraQ penetration in cardiac/vascular surgery outside the Nordics is the growth runway.
Adjusted ROIC ~48%, EP +NOK 116M, net cash.
Medistim is an exceptional, wide-moat-for-its-niche medtech compounder — ~48% ROIC, a probe-consumables annuity on >4,000 systems, +24% revenue, net cash — but the market fully prices ~15% sustained growth (rDCF ~−30% at 5%). HOLD with a quality bias; base NOK 215.
For long-term compounder holders it is a BUY on any meaningful pullback; at the current multiple the valuation, not the business, is the gate.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FY2025, group) | 700 | Consolidated income statement, AR p.55 (Note 1,2) 📄 p.55 | Group revenue anchor; LTM = 699.767 - Q1'25 181.547 + Q1'26 201.666 = 719.886. |
| Revenue split — own products vs third-party (FY2025) | 599 | Geographic split per product group, AR Note 1 p.64 📄 p.64 | Own products 598.525 (85.5%) vs third-party distribution 101.242 (14.5%); establishes the high-margin proprietary core vs the lower-margin distribution leg. |
| Revenue split — probes/consumables (FY2025) | 316 | Total sales by product, AR Note 1 p.64 (flow probes 292.405 + imaging probes 24.051) 📄 p.64 | The recurring single-use probe annuity = 45% of group revenue — the core razor-and-blades economics; with procedure/lease revenue 102.997, recurring is ~60% of sales. |
| Revenue split — capital systems (FY2025) | 179 | Total sales by product, AR Note 1 p.64 (flow systems 59.945 + flow&imaging systems 119.128) 📄 p.64 | MiraQ capital-equipment sales = the razor that seeds the installed base and drives future probe pull-through; lumpier than consumables. |
| Operating profit / EBIT (FY2025, group) | 196 | Consolidated income statement, AR p.55 📄 p.55 | Reported EBIT (= company-defined EBIT per APM p.116). LTM EBIT = 196.196 - 59.172 + 57.089 = 194.113 (26.96% margin). |
| EBIT by segment (FY2025) | 177 | Segment EBIT split, AR Note 2 p.66 📄 p.66 | Own-products segment EBIT 177.310 (29.6% margin) vs third-party 18.886 (18.7%); shows where the economic profit is generated. |
| Capitalized development additions (FY2025, net of SkatteFunn) | 17.484 | Intangible assets roll-forward, AR Note 12 p.78 (ext 12.332 + int 8.628 - SkatteFunn 3.476); ties to CF p.57 📄 p.78 | Period development capitalized that inflates EBIT; the gross amount we reverse out under the R&D-cap treatment (-17.484 + amort). |
| Amortization of capitalized development (FY2025) | 2.137 | Intangible assets roll-forward, AR Note 12 p.78 ('Depreciations for the year', Technology & development-cost column) 📄 p.78 | Amortization of previously-capitalized development already in EBIT; added back so we strip only the NET capitalization benefit (-17.484 + 2.137 = -15.347 pretax). |
| Capitalized development carrying value (FY-close) | 61.936 | Intangible assets carrying amount, AR Note 12 p.78 (Product under development 61.289 + Technology & dev cost 0.647) 📄 p.78 | Tracked as an IC memo (capitalized_rd_removal); NOT subtracted again — it already sits in book equity, and removing it would inflate the already-high ROIC. |
| Goodwill (FY-close) | 14.128 | Goodwill, AR Note 12 p.80 (Medistim Norge AS + Kir-Op AS) 📄 p.80 | Small distribution-arm goodwill; passed impairment with MNOK 93.5 headroom (15.5% discount rate). No PPA amortization arises from it. |
| Lease liabilities (total, FY-close) | 49.271 | Statement of financial position, AR p.56 (non-current 37.677 + current 11.594); detail AR Note 7 p.72 📄 p.56 | Office (Oslo/Horten/US/Japan/China) + vehicle leases — peripheral, EXCLUDED from IC; IFRS 16 interest (0.544) already below EBIT so no NOPAT add-back. |
| Interest-bearing debt | 0 | Q1 2026 highlights, Q1 report p.2 ('no interest-bearing bank loans') 📄 p.2 | Confirms the net-cash profile; only financing liabilities are leases. interest_bearing_debt = 0 in the IC build. |
| Cash and cash equivalents (Q1 2026) | 210 | Q1 2026 balance sheet, Q1 report p.14 📄 p.14 | Strong net-cash position; 2% of LTM revenue (14.398) kept as operational, the remaining 195.387 stripped from IC as excess cash. |
| Total equity (Q1 2026) | 507 | Q1 2026 balance sheet, Q1 report p.14 📄 p.14 | IC starting point; less translation reserve 22.283 (OCI) gives equity_ex_oci 484.461. |
| Translation reserve / OCI (FY-close, Q1 proxy) | 22.283 | Statement of changes in equity, AR p.58 ('Other reserves') 📄 p.58 | Sole OCI component (FX translation of foreign subs); stripped from equity in the IC build. Q1 movement (~4.4, sign-ambiguous) is immaterial. |
| Tax (effective, LTM) | 0.226 | Q1 2026 P&L p.13 + AR p.55 (LTM tax 45.581 / LTM PBT 201.661) 📄 p.13 | LTM effective rate 22.6%; the 22% Norwegian statutory marginal rate is used for NOPAT, within 0.6 pp of effective. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.