Kongsberg Maritime supplies integrated systems, automation, propulsion and technology for the maritime industry — an asset-light, engineering-led model. The extraction reports an exceptionally high adjusted ROIC (≈51%) and large economic profit (+NOK 3.3B), consistent with a capital-light systems franchise but high enough to warrant verification of the invested-capital base.
If the reported economics are clean, the equity is genuinely attractive: it embeds only ~0.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), with fair value ~30% above the price — a high-return franchise priced for stagnation. The low conviction reflects the data caveat, not a negative view.
On the reverse-DCF, fair value runs NOK 69 (zero growth) to NOK 103 (10% growth) versus the NOK 59 price — i.e. +17% to +75%, with the base case ~+30% at GDP growth. The unusually high ROIC means the perpetuity is conservative; the main risk to the read is invested-capital measurement.
Base NOK 70 (+19%) if economics are clean; bull NOK 90 (maritime-systems demand and margin delivery); bear NOK 50 (a maritime-cycle downturn or an invested-capital re-measurement that lowers the implied ROIC/return).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -6.3% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 51% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +42.7 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 69/share (130% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 90 | +7% | +68% | 35% | Maritime-systems demand + margin delivery |
| Base | NOK 70 | +0% | +31% | 40% | +30% if economics clean; minimal implied growth |
| Bear | NOK 50 | -8% | -6% | 25% | Maritime downturn or IC re-measurement lowers return |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 72 | — | +35% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 95 | 108 | 118 | 133 | 145 | 176 |
| 7.25% | 80 | 91 | 99 | 111 | 120 | 146 |
| 8.00% (base) | 69 | 78 | 85 | 95 | 103 | 124 |
| 8.75% | 61 | 69 | 74 | 83 | 90 | 108 |
| 9.50% | 54 | 61 | 66 | 74 | 79 | 95 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 53.43. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
An asset-light maritime-systems/automation model with high reported returns.
Price embeds only ~0.8% perpetual growth — a large margin of safety if economics are clean.
Decarbonisation, automation and newbuild/retrofit demand support orders.
An installed base supports recurring service and upgrade revenue.
A 6.5% free-cash yield supports the return profile.
Kongsberg Maritime screens as a high-ROIC, capital-light franchise priced for near-zero growth, with the reverse-DCF ~30% above the price. BUY, low conviction; base target NOK 70 (+19%) — sized small pending verification that the unusually high reported ROIC and invested-capital base are clean.
If the economics confirm, conviction would rise materially; the data caveat is the reason for caution, not a negative view of the franchise.