Alimak is a global leader in vertical-access solutions — construction hoists, permanent industrial elevators and building-maintenance units — with a substantial high-margin aftermarket/service base. Despite the aftermarket, adjusted ROIC of 7.6% sits below the 8% WACC and economic profit is −SEK 37M, reflecting a goodwill-heavy capital base from M&A.
The equity at SEK 110 embeds ~8.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF, ~42% below). The aftermarket and niche leadership are the support; sub-WACC returns and construction/industrial cyclicality are the cautions.
Reverse-DCF fair value runs ~SEK 61–64 across scenarios — well below the SEK 110 price (~8.8% implied growth). The aftermarket justifies a premium, but sub-WACC returns make the equity fully valued.
Base SEK 105 (−5%); bull SEK 135 (aftermarket growth + margin + construction recovery); bear SEK 80 (a construction/industrial downturn).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~6.6%, limited by ROIC 7% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 56/share (51% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 135 | ≥7% | +23% | 30% | Aftermarket growth + margin + construction recovery |
| Base | SEK 105 | ≥7% | -4% | 40% | Sub-WACC; full implied growth |
| Bear | SEK 80 | ≥7% | -27% | 30% | Construction/industrial downturn |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 106 | — | -3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 82 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 86 |
| 7.25% | 67 | 67 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 58 |
| 8.00% (base) | 56 | 54 | 53 | 50 | 47 | 38 |
| 8.75% | 47 | 45 | 43 | 38 | 35 | 23 |
| 9.50% | 41 | 37 | 35 | 29 | 25 | 11 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 109.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A large, high-margin service/aftermarket base provides recurring revenue — the quality core.
Global leadership in vertical access with installed-base advantages.
Permanent industrial elevators diversify beyond cyclical construction hoists.
Mix and cost actions could lift ROIC toward the cost of capital.
Service on a growing installed base.
Alimak is a quality vertical-access niche leader with a strong aftermarket but sub-WACC returns at a full price. HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target SEK 105 (−5%).
Aftermarket growth lifting ROIC above WACC is the upside; construction cyclicality is the risk.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.