Alimak is a global leader in vertical-access solutions — construction hoists, permanent industrial elevators and building-maintenance units — with a substantial high-margin aftermarket/service base. Despite the aftermarket, adjusted ROIC of 7.6% sits below the 8% WACC and economic profit is −SEK 37M, reflecting a goodwill-heavy capital base from M&A.
The equity at SEK 110 embeds ~8.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF, ~42% below). The aftermarket and niche leadership are the support; sub-WACC returns and construction/industrial cyclicality are the cautions.
Reverse-DCF fair value runs ~SEK 61–64 across scenarios — well below the SEK 110 price (~8.8% implied growth). The aftermarket justifies a premium, but sub-WACC returns make the equity fully valued.
Base SEK 105 (−5%); bull SEK 135 (aftermarket growth + margin + construction recovery); bear SEK 80 (a construction/industrial downturn).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~7.2%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 64/share (58% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 135 | ≥7% | +23% | 30% | Aftermarket growth + margin + construction recovery |
| Base | SEK 105 | ≥7% | -5% | 40% | Sub-WACC; full implied growth |
| Bear | SEK 80 | ≥7% | -27% | 30% | Construction/industrial downturn |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 106 | — | -3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 93 | 97 | 99 | 103 | 105 | 109 |
| 7.25% | 76 | 78 | 78 | 79 | 79 | 78 |
| 8.00% (base) | 64 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 61 | 55 |
| 8.75% | 54 | 53 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 38 |
| 9.50% | 47 | 45 | 43 | 39 | 36 | 25 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 110.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A large, high-margin service/aftermarket base provides recurring revenue — the quality core.
Global leadership in vertical access with installed-base advantages.
Permanent industrial elevators diversify beyond cyclical construction hoists.
Mix and cost actions could lift ROIC toward the cost of capital.
Service on a growing installed base.
Alimak is a quality vertical-access niche leader with a strong aftermarket but sub-WACC returns at a full price. HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target SEK 105 (−5%).
Aftermarket growth lifting ROIC above WACC is the upside; construction cyclicality is the risk.