Concejo is best understood as a collection of three operating businesses plus a growing cash pile, not a conventional ROIC-driven investment. The correct analytical lens is SOTP + HC discount.
Firenor (fire protection and industrial services, SEK 357M revenue, 6.8% EBIT margin) is the core asset — a recurring-contract services business in a growing regulatory market (Nordic fire safety requirements). ACAF (auto finance, 24.6% EBIT margin) and SBF Fonder (asset management, 16.4% margin) are high-margin businesses contributing disproportionate EBIT.
The Optronics sale in Q1 2026 (~SEK 140M gain, Saab full acquisition) brings estimated net proceeds of SEK 200-250M to Concejo's balance sheet — taking total net cash to approximately SEK 300-350M (SEK 26-30/share). Management has not announced a use of proceeds; the market is pricing in a cash return event (special dividend or buyback). Without that catalyst, the market cap of SEK 570M is a 35-60% premium to conservative SOTP values.
Börsdata LTM EBIT of SEK 139M and ROIC 17.3% are entirely fictitious — the Optronics SEK 140M gain is a one-time capital gain, not ongoing EBIT. mttssn corrected pro-forma ongoing EBIT = SEK 28M; ROIC = 4.4%; EP = -SEK 18M.
Conservative SOTP (20% HC discount): Firenor 6x EBIT + ACAF 6x + SBF Fonder 7.5x + net cash 115M + associates = gross SEK 445M → after 20% discount = SEK 356M (SEK 30/share). Base SOTP (no HC discount, 8x multiples): gross SEK 532M = SEK 57/share. Post-Optronics cash (~SEK 300M) adds SEK 26/share.
Base SEK 55 assumes: post-Optronics cash is deployed via special dividend or buyback, compressing the HC discount; Firenor grows into 7-8x EBIT. Bull SEK 70: HC discount eliminated entirely; management acquires at attractive multiples. Bear SEK 38: cash retained indefinitely, HC discount widens.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 4% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 30/share (62% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 70 | ≥-50% | +44% | 25% | Cash returned via special dividend; HC discount eliminated; Firenor re-rates to 8x EBIT |
| Base | SEK 55 | ≥-50% | +13% | 45% | Partial cash return (buyback or special div); HC discount 15%; Firenor 7x |
| Bear | SEK 38 | ≥-50% | -22% | 30% | Cash retained indefinitely; HC discount widens to 30%; no catalyst materialises |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 54 | — | +10% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 35 | 33 | 31 | 27 | 24 | 14 |
| 7.25% | 32 | 29 | 27 | 23 | 19 | 9 |
| 8.00% (base) | 30 | 27 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 6 |
| 8.75% | 28 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 3 |
| 9.50% | 27 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 1 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 48.70. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
SEK 200-250M pre-tax proceeds: special dividend (SEK ~14/share) would re-rate the stock.
Nordic fire protection regulatory tightening drives recurring service demand; EBIT margin expansion to 8-9% feasible.
Catalyst events (cash return, M&A at fair value) compress the 20-30% holding company discount.
High-margin, recurring-income businesses cushion the group overhead drag.
Concejo's operating portfolio is value-destructive (ROIC 4.4% < WACC 8%). The investment thesis is entirely a cash-return catalyst story: SEK 300-350M net cash post-Optronics sale vs SEK 570M market cap = 53-61% of market cap in cash. A special dividend would crystallise value. Without it, the premium to SOTP makes this a HOLD at best. HOLD/LOW; base SEK 55.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firenor FY2025 revenue | 357 | Subsidiary results table p.4 | Firenor net sales FY2025 = SEK 356.7M (2024: 321.9M, +10.8% YoY). Largest Concejo subsidiary by revenue. Fire protection and industrial services. |
| Firenor FY2025 EBIT | 24.4 | Subsidiary results table p.4 | Firenor operating profit FY2025 = SEK 24.4M (2024: 17.6M, +38.6%). EBIT margin 6.8%. Core earnings driver. |
| ACAF FY2025 revenue | 50.8 | Subsidiary results table p.5 | AC Auto Finance net revenue FY2025 = SEK 50.8M. High-margin financial services subsidiary. |
| ACAF FY2025 EBIT | 12.5 | Subsidiary results table p.5 | ACAF operating profit FY2025 = SEK 12.5M. EBIT margin 24.6% — highest-margin continuing subsidiary. |
| SBF Fonder FY2025 revenue | 77.2 | Subsidiary results table p.6 | SBF Fonder net revenue FY2025 = SEK 77.2M. Asset management / hedge fund operations. |
| SBF Fonder FY2025 EBIT | 12.7 | Subsidiary results table p.6 | SBF Fonder operating profit FY2025 = SEK 12.7M. EBIT margin 16.4%. |
| Net cash FY2025 | 115 | Balance sheet / net financial position p.8 | Net cash position FY2025 = SEK 115.1M (equity 615.8 - IC 500.7). Post-Optronics divestment (Q1 2026) the cash balance increases significantly by ~SEK 170-200M after-tax proceeds. |
| Optronics divestment gain Q1 2026 | 140 | Optronics stake — Saab acquisition announcement | Optronics (38.9% stake) sold in connection with Saab's full acquisition. Estimated capital gain ~SEK 140M in Q1 2026. This is a one-time item excluded from all mttssn ongoing EBIT and NOPAT calculations. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.