Evli runs institutional and wealth asset management plus funds, alternatives and advisory — a fee-based, capital-light model. AUM hit a record EUR 21.4bn (EUR 21.5bn at Q1 2026) with EUR 1.6bn of fund net new money; recurring management fees are the base (~EUR 103m) and performance fees (EUR 19m FY2025, above trend) are the lumpy top-up. Owners' ROE is ~24% reported / ~20% normalized (material NCI means the headline 28% overstates the owners' figure), net cash, ~5.1% dividend yield at ~89% payout.
Valuation is full: 4.12x book and ~18x earnings. The Gordon fair P/B (~3.0x on the reported ROE) implies downside, but Gordon is a weak anchor for a near-full-payout, AUM-driven compounder where book equity is tiny relative to fee-earning AUM — P/E + yield + AUM trajectory are the better lens. On those it is full-to-rich rather than a clear short. HOLD.
The Gordon fair P/B (~3.0x on reported ROE) flags overvaluation, but understates a capital-light, ~89%-payout AUM compounder; on ~18x P/E + 5.1% yield + record AUM it is full-to-rich.
Base EUR 24 (fair on P/E + yield; AUM the swing); bull EUR 29 if AUM/net-new-money + performance fees keep compounding; bear EUR 18 on a market drawdown shrinking AUM + fees.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 30.9% vs 27.9% currently earned; at a sustained 27.9% ROE the warranted P/B is 3.55× (€21/sh, -11%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €29 | 37% | +21% | 30% | AUM/NNM + performance fees keep compounding |
| Base | €24 | 31% | +0% | 45% | Fair on P/E + yield; AUM the swing |
| Bear | €18 | 24% | -25% | 25% | Market drawdown shrinks AUM + fees |
| Prob-weighted | €24 | — | +0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 34 |
| 9.25% | 7 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 26 | 30 |
| 10.00% (base) | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 27 |
| 10.75% | 5 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
| 11.50% | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 22 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €24.00. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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Record EUR 21.4bn AUM with positive net new money compounds the fee base.
Lumpy performance fees add upside in strong years.
~5.1% yield at ~89% payout — the core return.
~20% normalized ROE, net cash — capital-efficient.
Evli is a high-quality, capital-light asset manager compounding a record AUM with a ~5.1% yield, but fully priced at 4.12x book / ~18x earnings. HOLD; base EUR 24.
Own it for AUM compounding + the dividend, not a re-rating; accumulate on a market-driven pullback.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue FY2025 | 128 | Key figures - Income statement p.4 / Income statement p.23 | Reported net revenue (income total 138.6 less fee+interest expenses 10.1) = the asset manager's top line. Up 1.3% on reported FY2024 126.8; +17% on the company's comparable 109.7. |
| Recurring fund management fees - UCITS | 53.6 | Development of commission income p.8 | Largest recurring fee line; UCITS fund fees 53.6 (50.6 prior). Core of the stable, AUM-linked fee base separated from lumpy performance fees. |
| Fund performance fees FY2025 | 18.2 | Development of commission income p.8 + narrative p.8 | LUMPY performance fees: 18.2 (8.3 prior), more than double. Text: 'Performance-based fees from investment funds during the review period amounted to EUR 18.2 million (EUR 8.3 million)'. Stripped out for normalized ROE. |
| Asset-management performance fees FY2025 | 0.9 | Development of commission income p.8 | Second performance-fee line (AM performance fees) 0.9 (0.4 prior); added to fund performance fees for total performance fees of 19.1m. |
| Net commission income FY2025 | 122 | Key figures - Net commissions p.4 | Reported net commissions 121.9 (106.3 prior). Recurring fee base = 121.9 less 19.1 performance fees = ~102.8m. The +15% YoY rise is partly the performance-fee spike. |
| Operating profit FY2025 | 56.1 | Key figures p.4 / Income statement p.23 | Operating profit 56.1 (58.2 reported / 43.3 comparable prior), a 43.7% operating margin. +30% on the corporate-transaction-adjusted comparable. |
| Profit for the financial year FY2025 | 44.5 | Consolidated income statement p.23 | Total group profit 44.5 (49.9 prior). Of this, EUR 8.0m is attributable to non-controlling interests, leaving 36.5m to owners. |
| Profit attributable to owners of parent FY2025 | 36.5 | Consolidated income statement - Attributable to p.23 | Shareholders of parent company 36.5 (44.6 prior); the correct numerator for owners' ROE and the basis for EPS. NCI takes 8.0m. |
| Equity to owners of parent (31 Dec 2025) | 154 | Consolidated balance sheet - Equity p.25 / Statement of changes in equity p.26 | Owners' equity 154.4 (149.3 prior) is the ROE / P-B denominator base. Total equity 159.7 includes 5.3m NCI. |
| Total equity (31 Dec 2025) | 160 | Consolidated balance sheet - Total equity p.25 | Total equity 159.7 (153.5 prior); used for the company-reported ROE 28.4% and the equity-to-assets ratio 43.6%. |
| Intangible assets and goodwill (31 Dec 2025) | 44.1 | Consolidated balance sheet - Assets p.25 | Intangibles & goodwill 44.1 (44.6 prior) = 28.5% of total equity; deducted to tangible equity ~110.3m (P/TBV de-emphasised for an asset manager). |
| Return on equity FY2025 (company-reported) | 0.284 | Key figures - Return on equity p.4 | Reported ROE 28.4% (34.4% prior) uses total group profit over average total equity. Owners'-basis ROE is 24.0%; normalized ex-performance-fees ~19.7%. |
| AUM net (end-Dec 2025) | 21.4 | Financial performance / AUM p.3, p.9 | Net assets under management EUR 21.4bn (18.9 prior) incl. associates; 19.0bn ex-associates. The key value driver for fee income; rose to EUR 21.5bn at end-Mar 2026. |
| Net new money - mutual funds FY2025 | 1.6 | Traditional mutual funds p.10 | Mutual fund net subscriptions ~EUR 1.6bn (vs ~0.0bn prior), of which EUR 988m from international clients - the strategic growth engine. |
| Net new money - alternatives FY2025 | 0.331 | Alternative investment funds p.11 | Net subscriptions and investment commitments in alternative investment funds totaled EUR 331m (265m prior); alternatives AUM 3.2bn (2.8 prior). |
| Dividend per share proposed FY2025 | 1.23 | Board proposal p.3, p.19 | Board proposes EUR 1.23/share (1.18 prior); total ~EUR 32.6m, ~89% of owners' profit; 5.1% yield on EUR 24.00. High, well-covered payout. |
| Equity per share / EPS / shares FY2025 | 5.83 | Key figures per share p.4 / Shares and shareholders p.18 | Equity per share EUR 5.83 (5.64 prior) = owners' BVPS. EPS diluted 1.33 (undiluted 1.38). Total shares 26,484,899 (14,397,812 A + 12,087,087 B), no own shares. |
| Share price end-2025 / live price | 22.6 | Shares and shareholders p.18 (year-end); live price via stockanalysis.com | Report's own 31 Dec 2025 close EUR 22.60 (market value 598.6m). Current verified price EUR 24.00 (8 Jun 2026) used for live multiples; market cap 635.6m. |
| Q1 2026 net revenue / operating profit / ROE | 34.8 | Interim Report 1-3/2026 summary (evli.com) | Latest interim read: Q1 2026 net revenue EUR 34.8m (27.7 prior), operating profit 16.1m (11.4), ROE 33.6% (28.0), EPS diluted 0.39 (0.27), AUM EUR 21.5bn - favourable start, fund + performance fees driving growth. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.