SKIS-B.ST — mttssn research

HOLD

Conviction: MEDIUM

The leading Nordic ski-resort operator (Sälen, Åre, Trysil, Hemsedal) — an asset-heavy, destination-oligopoly franchise, but thin returns (ROIC ~8% ≈ WACC) and a price embedding ~7.8% growth leave it fully valued. Quality assets, full price, weather/seasonal risk. HOLD.

Adj. ROIC

10.2%

WACC 8% → spread +2.2pp

Economic Profit

+SEK 156M

+SEK 20M; thin — ROIC ≈ WACC

FCF Yield

3.9%

4.1% FCF yield

Price / Target

SEK 146 → SEK 145

-1% base; HOLD

Revenue (LTM)

SEK 4.9B

LTM; lift/lodging/rental/RE

EBIT Margin

17.8%

GAAP; asset-heavy leisure

EV / IC

2.03×

Enterprise value / invested capital

Net Debt

SEK 2.6B

SEK 3.7B

Thesis

SkiStar operates the leading Nordic alpine ski destinations (Sälen, Åre, Vemdalen, Trysil, Hemsedal), a vertically-integrated, destination-oligopoly model spanning lift tickets, accommodation, ski rental and real-estate development. Adjusted ROIC of ~8% only matches the 8% WACC (thin +SEK 20M economic profit) — the asset-heavy mountain real estate weighs on returns.

The equity at SEK 148 embeds ~7.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), demanding for a mature, weather- and consumer-sensitive leisure business. Quality destinations and pricing power are real; the valuation is full and seasonally/weather-exposed.

Valuation · reverse-DCF & scenarios

Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs ~SEK 56–59 across scenarios — well below the SEK 148 price (~7.8% implied growth). The destination-oligopoly and real-estate value support a premium, but thin current returns make the equity fully valued.

Base SEK 145 (−2%); bull SEK 185 (strong seasons + pricing + real-estate gains); bear SEK 110 (poor snow seasons or a consumer/leisure downturn).

Market-implied growth

≥9.7%

model ceiling — EV implies more than constant-ROIC sustains

No-growth value / share

SEK 90

61% of price; rest = priced-in growth

ROIC − WACC

+2.2 pp

ROIC 10.2% vs WACC 8.0% — positive = value creation

CAP (priced-in)

22.8 yrs

years of excess returns the price implies (fades to WACC)

At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~9.7%, limited by ROIC 10% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 90/share (61% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.

Scenario	24m target	Impl. g	Upside	Prob.	Driver
Bull	SEK 185	≥10%	+27%	30%	Strong seasons + pricing + real-estate gains
Base	SEK 145	≥10%	-1%	45%	Full: ~7.8% implied growth, thin returns
Bear	SEK 110	≥10%	-25%	25%	Poor snow seasons / leisure downturn
Prob-weighted	SEK 148	—	+1%	100%	Scenario-weighted expected value

Sensitivity — fair value / share at WACC × growth

WACC \ g	0%	3%	5%	8%	10%	15%
6.50%	132	144	152	165	174	198
7.25%	108	116	121	130	136	150
8.00% (base)	90	95	99	104	108	116
8.75%	76	80	82	85	87	90
9.50%	65	67	69	70	71	71

Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 146.20. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.

Method & data. NOPAT SEK 708, invested capital and ROIC 10.2% are observed (adjustments.json); WACC 8.0% and terminal g 2.5% are assumptions. EV→equity uses net debt SEK 2,582. The model holds ROIC constant (no fade) over the explicit horizon; the CAP figure instead fades excess returns to WACC.

⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.

Key drivers

1. Destination oligopoly

Leading Nordic ski destinations with pricing power and high guest loyalty.

2. Vertical integration

Lift, lodging, rental and real-estate capture the full guest spend.

3. Real-estate development

Mountain real-estate development adds periodic value/cash.

4. Dynamic/season-pass pricing

Pricing and season-pass models support yield.

5. Barriers to entry

New alpine destinations are hard to create — a structural moat.

Key risks

Weather/snow riskPoor snow seasons directly hit visitor numbers and revenue — the dominant operational risk.
Thin returns / full valuationROIC ≈ WACC and a ~7.8% implied growth leave no cushion.
Consumer/leisure cyclicalityDiscretionary leisure spend softens in a downturn.
Asset-heavy / leverageMountain real estate is capital-intensive and rate-sensitive.
Climate changeLong-run snow reliability is a structural concern for alpine resorts.

Conclusion

SkiStar is a quality Nordic ski-destination oligopoly at a full price with thin current returns and weather risk. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 145 (−2%).

Strong snow seasons plus pricing and real-estate gains are the upside; weather and consumer cyclicality are the principal risks.