Inwido is the Nordic leader in windows and exterior doors, heavily exposed to consumer renovation (RMI) and new-build construction — both depressed by high Nordic rates and weak housing activity. The business earns below its cost of capital (ROIC 6.9% vs 8% WACC) and currently posts negative economic profit (−SEK 90M) and negative free cash flow.
The screen's valuation percentile 68 reads 'cheap' off a depressed-cycle EV/EBIT, but that is the trap: with returns below WACC, growth destroys value, and the reverse-DCF fair value (~SEK 70 vs SEK 145 price) sits at roughly half the market price across scenarios.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of SEK 561M and bridging through SEK 2,592M net debt and 58M shares, the reverse-DCF fair value runs SEK 72 (zero growth) and falls toward SEK 58 at higher growth — because sub-WACC returns mean growth is value-destructive. Against a SEK 145 price, the equity is roughly twice its through-cycle value.
Base SEK 110 (−24%, partial de-rate); bull SEK 180 (a genuine RMI/renovation upcycle restores margins and returns above WACC); bear SEK 85 (prolonged housing weakness, continued negative FCF).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~6.6%, limited by ROIC 7% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 72/share (50% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 180 | ≥7% | +24% | 30% | Genuine RMI upcycle restores above-WACC returns |
| Base | SEK 110 | ≥7% | -24% | 40% | Partial de-rate toward through-cycle value |
| Bear | SEK 85 | ≥7% | -41% | 30% | Prolonged housing weakness; continued negative FCF |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 124 | — | -15% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 111 | 114 | 115 | 117 | 117 | 116 |
| 7.25% | 89 | 88 | 88 | 85 | 83 | 74 |
| 8.00% (base) | 72 | 70 | 67 | 63 | 58 | 44 |
| 8.75% | 60 | 56 | 52 | 46 | 40 | 22 |
| 9.50% | 50 | 45 | 40 | 32 | 26 | 5 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 144.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A Nordic renovation/new-build upcycle as rates fall would lift volumes and restore returns — the bull path.
Scale and brand in Nordic windows provide pricing and distribution advantages into a recovery.
Depressed volumes mean high incremental margins if demand returns.
Restructuring and footprint optimisation could lift ROIC toward WACC.
A track record of bolt-on M&A could add value if executed at low multiples.
Inwido is cheap-looking on a depressed multiple but destroys value at current returns and trades at ~2× its through-cycle worth. We rate it SELL/Avoid, medium conviction; base target SEK 110 (−24%) — a clear screen-correction on the long side.
The thesis flips only on a genuine RMI upcycle that pushes ROIC durably above WACC; until then, growth and leverage cut against shareholders.