AstraZeneca is a world-class global pharmaceutical company — a leader in oncology (Tagrisso, Enhertu, Imfinzi, Calquence), with strong cardiovascular/renal/metabolic, respiratory and rare-disease (Alexion) franchises and an ambitious growth target. Adjusted ROIC of 15% and +SEK 49B economic profit reflect a high-quality, growth-oriented franchise. (This is the Stockholm-listed line of the UK-domiciled group, reflecting AstraZeneca's Swedish heritage.)
The equity embeds ~5.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF) and carries meaningful net debt (post-Alexion). The oncology pipeline and growth ambition are genuine, but the valuation is full — quality at a demanding price.
With ROIC above WACC the perpetuity floor (~SEK 823–1,109) understates value; the price embeds ~5.8% growth — defensible given the oncology pipeline and a $80bn-by-2030 revenue ambition, but offering no margin of safety.
Base SEK 1,750 (+2%); bull SEK 2,100 (oncology pipeline and growth target delivered, margin expansion); bear SEK 1,350 (pipeline setbacks, China/pricing pressure, or leverage).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~14.3%, limited by ROIC 15% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 823/share (48% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 2,100 | ≥14% | +23% | 30% | Oncology pipeline + 2030 growth target delivered |
| Base | SEK 1,750 | ≥14% | +2% | 45% | Fair: ~5.8% implied growth, deep pipeline |
| Bear | SEK 1,350 | ≥14% | -21% | 25% | Pipeline setbacks / China / pricing / leverage |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 1,755 | — | +2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 1,172 | 1,304 | 1,398 | 1,550 | 1,659 | 1,956 |
| 7.25% | 970 | 1,071 | 1,143 | 1,258 | 1,340 | 1,561 |
| 8.00% (base) | 823 | 902 | 958 | 1,046 | 1,109 | 1,276 |
| 8.75% | 711 | 774 | 817 | 886 | 934 | 1,061 |
| 9.50% | 623 | 673 | 707 | 761 | 798 | 894 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 1,712.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A leading oncology portfolio and pipeline — the core growth engine.
CVRM, respiratory and rare disease (Alexion) diversify growth.
A broad late-stage pipeline supports the long-term growth ambition.
High returns and very large absolute economic profit.
A credible path toward a large revenue step-up by 2030.
AstraZeneca is a world-class, oncology-led growth pharma at a full price — quality you can underwrite, but with no margin of safety. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 1,750 (+2%).
Oncology-pipeline delivery and the 2030 growth ambition are the upside; pipeline, China and pricing risks are the principal cautions.