Sweco is Europe's leading architecture and engineering consultancy — 23,000 experts, capital-light, people-based, with strong positions in the structural-growth themes of energy transition, water, urbanisation, infrastructure and security/defence. A disciplined serial-acquirer model compounds value via accretive bolt-ons. LTM Q2 2026 adjusted ROIC of 14.9% and +SEK 1,132m economic profit at 8% WACC confirm real value creation — stronger than the B-share note's FY-anchored 13.6% read as the M&A engine and margins have firmed (Q2 EBITA margin 10.1% vs 9.6%).
The A-share carries identical group consolidated financials to SWEC-B.ST — only the listing and price differ (SEK 133 A vs the B-line). Sweco A carries 10 votes vs B's 1 and is the thinner, founder/insider-held line; the two typically trade near parity. Quality this visible is rarely cheap: at SEK 133 the equity prices ~5% perpetual growth, defensible for a pricing-power consultancy with an accretive acquisition machine, so it is fully valued rather than offering a margin of safety.
IC is ~72% cumulative acquisition goodwill (SEK 11,672m), which caps headline ROIC below where a tangible-light business could otherwise sit and makes the thesis dependent on continued M&A discipline. The market is mixed — infrastructure, water, environment, energy and security/defence strong; residential and commercial real estate and parts of industry weak — but breadth across geographies and end-markets dampens single-market cyclicality.
With adjusted ROIC (14.9%) well above WACC (8%), the reverse-DCF perpetuity read is a value-destruction artefact; the useful lens is implied growth. At SEK 133 the market prices roughly ~5% perpetual growth — reasonable given mid-single-digit organic growth plus the accretive acquisition machine — so the equity is fairly-to-fully valued with no margin of safety. Base near the price, consistent with the B-share.
Base SEK 135 (~flat); bull SEK 165 (sustained margin expansion + accretive M&A in energy-transition, water and defence); bear SEK 105 (European construction / public-budget slowdown compresses billings, utilisation and margins). We would upgrade toward SEK 105-110, where the quality and acquisition optionality come at a more reasonable implied growth.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~14.2%, limited by ROIC 15% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 83/share (62% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 165 | ≥14% | +24% | 30% | Margin expansion + accretive M&A in energy-transition/water/defence |
| Base | SEK 135 | ≥14% | +2% | 45% | Fair: price embeds ~5% perpetual growth |
| Bear | SEK 105 | +8% | -21% | 25% | European construction / public-budget slowdown compresses billings |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 136 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 118 | 131 | 140 | 156 | 166 | 196 |
| 7.25% | 98 | 108 | 115 | 126 | 134 | 156 |
| 8.00% (base) | 83 | 91 | 96 | 105 | 111 | 128 |
| 8.75% | 72 | 78 | 82 | 89 | 94 | 106 |
| 9.50% | 63 | 68 | 71 | 76 | 80 | 90 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 133.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Energy transition, water, climate adaptation, infrastructure and security/defence underpin multi-year billable demand.
Disciplined bolt-on M&A (5 deals YTD + Sitowise Sverige, STEIN) adds value at accretive multiples — the core compounding engine.
People-based model with minimal tangible capital converts earnings to cash (FCF SEK 3,475m LTM) and supports a 14.9% ROIC.
Billing ratio improved to 75.9%; specialist expertise and scale support real fee increases above wage inflation.
8 business areas / ~15 markets dampen single-market cyclicality as parts of the market soften.
Sweco is a high-quality, capital-light compounder — 14.9% adjusted ROIC, +SEK 1,132m economic profit — at a full price. The A-share carries identical group economics to SWEC-B.ST and trades near parity (SEK 133), so the call is the same: HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 135 (~flat). A name to accumulate on weakness rather than chase.
We would upgrade toward SEK 105-110, where the quality and acquisition optionality would come at a more reasonable implied growth. The thesis is durable; the entry point is the only open question.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 annual report | None | Sweco Annual Report 2025 📄 open | FY2025 anchor for the LTM build. |
| Q2/H1 2026 interim report | None | Sweco Interim Report Q2 2026 📄 open | Q2 2026 interim providing the rolling-12 column and 2026-06-30 balance sheet. |
| LTM net sales 32,587 | 32,587 | Condensed income statement, Jul 2025-Jun 2026 column / p.22 📄 p.21 | Interim discloses a rolling-12 column directly; LTM = FY2025 31,586 + H1'26 16,902 - H1'25 15,901. |
| LTM EBIT 3,272 | 3,272 | Condensed income statement, Operating profit (EBIT), R12 col / p.22 📄 p.22 | Reported EBIT already after PPA amortisation and ROU depreciation; used as-is as adjusted EBIT. |
| LTM EBITA 3,414 (company APM) | 3,414 | Reconciliation of EBIT and EBITA/EBITDA, R12 col / p.30 📄 p.30 | Company APM adds back acquisition-related items; used only for APM bridge (4.3% divergence). mttssn keeps those costs in opex. |
| LTM PPA amortisation 197 (rejected add-back) | 197 | Acquisition-related items — Amortisation of acquisition-related intangible assets, R12 / p.30 📄 p.30 | Recurring economic cost of a serial-acquirer people business; kept in opex, not added back to NOPAT. |
| LTM income tax 778 on PBT 3,056 | 778 | Condensed income statement, R12 col / p.22 📄 p.22 | Effective tax rate 25.5% applied to adjusted EBIT for NOPAT. |
| Total equity 12,659 @ 2026-06-30 | 12,659 | Condensed balance sheet / p.24 📄 p.24 | IC base; NCI SEK 5m immaterial, included in IC per methodology. |
| Interest-bearing debt 3,555 @ 2026-06-30 | 3,555 | Balance sheet: non-current 1,949 + current 1,606 IB liabilities / p.24 📄 p.24 | Added to IC; matches KPI net-debt bridge (p.30). |
| Goodwill 11,672 @ 2026-06-30 | 11,672 | Condensed balance sheet, Goodwill / p.24 📄 p.24 | IC is ~72% goodwill — capital-light people business grows by acquiring consultancies; no impairment flagged. |
| Cash 663 @ 2026-06-30 | 663 | Condensed balance sheet, Cash and cash equivalents / p.24 📄 p.24 | 2%-of-revenue operational-cash floor (652) exceeds balance -> only SEK 11m excess cash removed from IC. |
| Lease liabilities 3,600 @ 2026-06-30 (excluded from IC) | 3,600 | Balance sheet: non-current 2,672 + current 928 lease liabilities / p.24 📄 p.24 | Office leases are peripheral, not the primary operating asset; excluded from IC. IFRS 16 interest already below EBIT. |