Verkkokauppa.com is a simple, well-run Finnish omnichannel electronics retailer with industry-leading delivery and a recognised brand. The asset-light model produces a high adjusted ROIC of 19.4% against an 8% WACC and positive economic profit of +€7.1m on just €62m of invested capital — genuine, if small-scale, value creation.
The quality caveat is that the return is turnover-driven, not pricing-driven: comparable EBIT margin is only ~2.7% LTM and slipped in H1 2026 (comparable EBIT €4.9m vs €5.2m) as gross margin compressed to 17.0% from 17.9% on price competition. Electronics retail is structurally thin-margin, so the moat is scale/brand, not durable pricing power.
A real turnaround is in motion — FY2025 comparable operating result jumped from €1.8m to €14.8m, the drag of consumer-finance was divested, and revenue is re-accelerating (+6.2% H1). But the medium-term >5% comparable-EBIT-margin target (by 2028) is heavily H2/Q4-weighted and, on H1 evidence, not yet corroborated.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of €12.0m: at zero growth EV is ~€150m versus the actual ~€157m, and at GDP growth ~€200m (equity ~€4.15/share) — so the stock is roughly fairly valued, pricing modest growth. If the >5% margin target is reached (comparable EBIT ~€27m, NOPAT ~€22m), zero-growth fair value rises toward €5.8, which frames the upside.
Base €3.30 (roughly fair, modest growth); bull €5.00 if the margin recovery reaches the 2028 target and operating leverage lifts EP; bear €2.30 if price competition persists, the margin stays ~2% and the turnaround stalls.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 19% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is €4,005/share (124774% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €5 | ≥-50% | +56% | 30% | Margin recovery reaches >5% 2028 target; operating leverage lifts EP |
| Base | €3 | ≥-50% | +3% | 45% | Roughly fair; modest growth priced in |
| Bear | €2 | ≥-50% | -28% | 25% | Price competition persists; margin stays ~2%; turnaround stalls |
| Prob-weighted | €4 | — | +11% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 5,445 | 6,049 | 6,484 | 7,191 | 7,699 | 9,109 |
| 7.25% | 4,612 | 5,088 | 5,430 | 5,982 | 6,378 | 7,469 |
| 8.00% (base) | 4,005 | 4,389 | 4,664 | 5,105 | 5,420 | 6,284 |
| 8.75% | 3,543 | 3,858 | 4,083 | 4,441 | 4,696 | 5,389 |
| 9.50% | 3,180 | 3,441 | 3,627 | 3,921 | 4,129 | 4,690 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €3.21. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
19.4% ROIC vs 8% WACC on only €62m IC with €12.6m net debt — capital-efficient value creation.
Comparable operating result already €1.8m→€14.8m FY2025; the >5% 2028 target is the core upside lever.
Selling the finance operations lightened the cost base and sharpened the retail focus.
Revenue +6.2% in H1 2026 (home-appliances strong) in a muted, promotion-heavy Finnish market.
Net debt €12.6m and a fresh June-2026 refinancing leave ample flexibility.
Verkkokauppa creates real economic value on a light capital base (ROIC 19.4%, EP +€7.1m), but the return is turnover-driven and rests on a thin ~2.7% margin that slipped in H1, while the reverse-DCF already puts fair value roughly at the price. HOLD, medium conviction; base target €3.30.
The upside to ~€5 hinges on the >5% 2028 comparable-EBIT-margin target, which the H1 print has not yet confirmed. A quarter or two of margin expansion in the seasonal H2 would be the evidence to turn constructive.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM revenue 540.5 MEUR | 540,473 | Konsernin tuloslaskelma / p.14 | LTM = FY2025 526,489 - H1 2025 227,010 + H1 2026 240,994; consolidated income statement columns 1-6/2026, 1-6/2025, 1-12/2025. |
| LTM reported EBIT 17.4 MEUR | 17,353 | Liiketulos / p.14 | LTM = FY 17,392 - H1'25 4,953 + H1'26 4,914; reported operating result before the disposal-gain normalization. |
| FY2025 items-affecting-comparability +2.5 MEUR (disposal gain) | -2,500 | Items affecting comparability / FY2025 p.214,728 | FY2025 comparability items were +2.5 MEUR net, mainly a +3.2 MEUR non-recurring gain on the sale of the consumer-finance operations; non-operating, stripped from LTM EBIT. |
| Company comparable EBIT LTM 14.5 MEUR (APM anchor) | 14,500 | Vertailukelpoinen liiketulos / p.1 | LTM comparable EBIT = FY 14,800 - H1'25 5,200 + H1'26 4,900 = 14,500; management APM the bridge reconciles to. |
| Total equity 38.8 MEUR (30 Jun 2026) | 38,786 | Konsernitase / Oma paaoma yhteensa p.15 | Interim balance-sheet equity snapshot for IC; nil NCI. |
| Interest-bearing bank loans 15.4 MEUR | 15,354 | Lainat rahoituslaitoksilta p.15 | 15,264 non-current + 90 current bank borrowings (June 2026 refinancing: 15 MEUR term loan drawn, 20 MEUR RCF undrawn). |
| Lease liabilities 24.6 MEUR in IC | 24,623 | Vuokrasopimusvelat p.15 | 20,848 non-current + 3,775 current IFRS-16 lease liabilities; store portfolio is the retailer's primary operating asset so leases enter IC. |
| Cash 27.8 MEUR; excess 17.0 MEUR removed | 16,970 | Rahavarat p.15 | operational_cash capped at 2% of LTM revenue (10,809); excess 16,970 subtracted from IC. |
| Goodwill 2.8 MEUR, no impairment | 2,846 | Liikearvo p.15 | Goodwill flat vs FY2025; no impairment add-back required. |