Mowi is the global leader in Atlantic salmon farming with EUR 5.9bn LTM revenue, guided 2026 harvest of 605k GWT (+8.3% vs industry +2.5%) and a genuine cost tailwind — blended farming cost of EUR 5.46/kg in Q1 2026 vs 5.89 a year ago, feed prices down ~10%, and a Skretting feed partnership targeting EUR 55M in annualised savings. Licenses (EUR 2.1bn on the balance sheet) in a regulatorily constrained industry are a real structural asset.
The adjusted economics do not clear the bar. Stripping the +EUR 155M LTM biomass fair-value swing and the EUR 413M non-cash Nova Sea step-acquisition gain, and keeping recurring license fees and restructuring in opex, adjusted NOPAT is EUR 488M on EUR 7.5bn invested capital — ROIC 6.5% vs an 8% WACC, economic profit −EUR 113M. EP stays negative in every tested configuration (−85 to −163), including the pro-forma Nova Sea earnings re-base. Semi-recurring impairments (FY24 −66, FY25 −54, Canada goodwill now zero) cap the quality read.
Critically, this is not a trough being mismeasured: FY2025 Operational EBIT/kg of 1.30 ranks 8th of the last 10 years (peaks 2.16-2.17 in 2022-23), so the LTM is mid-cycle-or-below and the negative spread is the through-cycle answer, not a peak artifact. The bull case — Kontali's 0% industry supply growth for the rest of 2026 and 1% in 2027 tightening prices while costs fall — is a price-cycle call the current share price already more than pays for.
Capitalising adjusted LTM NOPAT of EUR 488M at the 8% WACC and bridging EUR 2.8bn net IB debt leaves a zero-growth equity value near NOK 70/share (at the ~11.2 EURNOK implied by the record's market block). Inverting: NOK 196.8 implies ~EUR 950M of perpetual NOPAT — 1.9x delivered, a ~12.8% ROIC on today's capital. Even capitalising 2022-23 peak Op EBIT/kg (2.16) on guided 605k GWT reaches only ~NOK 175. With ROIC below WACC, growth subtracts value — the price requires peak economics to become permanent.
Base NOK 150 (−24%): the supply-tight 2026-27 window lifts realised prices and cost gains hold, but the multiple compresses toward mid-cycle capitalisation; the NOK 2.30 quarterly dividend carries part of the return. Bull NOK 220: 0-1% industry supply growth persists beyond 2027, EBIT/kg re-approaches 2.0 and the market re-rates license scarcity. Bear NOK 105: industry supply growth resumes, Canada keeps burning, and an adverse EU competition decision lands.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~6.2%, limited by ROIC 6% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is €-59/share (-30% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €220 | ≥6% | +12% | 25% | Supply stays at 0-1% beyond 2027; EBIT/kg toward 2.0; license scarcity re-rated |
| Base | €150 | ≥6% | -24% | 45% | Supply-tight window helps, but de-rate toward mid-cycle capitalisation; dividend carries |
| Bear | €105 | ≥6% | -47% | 30% | Industry supply resumes, Canada drags, adverse EU competition decision |
| Prob-weighted | €154 | — | -22% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | -56 | -56 | -56 | -56 | -56 | -57 |
| 7.25% | -58 | -58 | -58 | -59 | -59 | -60 |
| 8.00% (base) | -59 | -60 | -60 | -61 | -61 | -63 |
| 8.75% | -61 | -61 | -62 | -62 | -63 | -65 |
| 9.50% | -62 | -62 | -63 | -64 | -64 | -67 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €196.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Kontali expects 0% industry supply growth for the rest of 2026 and 1% in 2027; biomass lower y/y in both Norway and Chile.
605k GWT guided (+8.3% vs industry +2.5%), backed by higher smolt stocking, Nova Sea and the Torghatten bolt-on.
Blended farming cost 5.46 vs 5.89 EUR/kg y/y, feed prices −10%, Skretting partnership targets EUR 55M annualised savings.
NOK 16bn deal consolidates prime Northern Norway capacity; full-year earnings contribution starts 2026.
EUR 2.1bn of licenses in an industry where regulation caps growth — the structural asset the bull case re-rates.
Mowi is a well-run scale leader with real volume and cost momentum, but the adjusted through-cycle economics earn below the cost of capital and the share price capitalises near-peak earnings as a perpetuity. We rate it SELL, medium conviction; base target NOK 150 (−24%), with the dividend softening the total-return gap.
What would change the call: sustained 0-1% industry supply growth beyond 2027 with EBIT/kg holding near 2.0 — lifting adjusted ROIC durably through the 8% WACC — or an entry price toward the low-NOK 100s, where mid-cycle economics are actually on offer.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM revenue 5910.5 (FY 5720.2 - Q1'25 1352.7 + Q1'26 1543.0) | 5,910 | Condensed Statement of Comprehensive Income p.23; FY IS p.185 📄 p.23 | Revenue and other income; LTM stitched per rule (FY anchor minus prior-year Q1 plus current Q1). |
| LTM reported EBIT 1136.2 (FY 960.5 - Q1'25 41.1 + Q1'26 216.8) | 1,136 | Q1 2026 IS p.23; FY IS p.185 📄 p.23 | IFRS financial EBIT before our adjustments; carries the Nova Sea revaluation gain and the biomass FV swing. |
| Biomass fair-value removal -154.9 (LTM net FV adj: -14.2 +168.1 +1.0) | -155 | FY Note 6 p.199-200 (components: FV on biological assets +631.5, uplift on harvested fish -628.8, incident mortality -16.8 = -14.2); Q1 Note 6 p.31 (Q1'26 +1.0, Q1'25 -168.1) 📄 p.199 | IAS 41 fair value on unharvested biomass is non-cash and forward-price-driven (forward curve 6.47-8.52 EUR/kg, p.200); mttssn strips it so NOPAT reflects harvested-cost economics. The LTM +154.9 is mostly the Q1'25 loss rolling out of the window. |
| IAS 41 uplift carried in biological assets 541.4 at 2026-03-31 - kept in IC | 541 | Q1 Note 6 p.31 (FV adjustment in the statement of financial position; FY2025: 540.4 p.199) 📄 p.31 | Balance-sheet capital the harvest converts to cash at market prices; kept in IC. Symmetric removal net of deferred tax (~352) lifts ROIC only to ~6.8% - conclusion unchanged. |
| Nova Sea step-acquisition revaluation gain removal -412.9 | -413 | Note 22 p.220 (total gain 448.4: 412.9 in income from associates + 35.5 in CTD); Note 21 p.219 (Nova Sea share of profit 422.9 incl. the gain) 📄 p.220 | Non-cash accounting gain from revaluing the legacy 49% stake at the 2025-10-28 consolidation; one-off, non-taxable (tax reconciliation +93.7 effect, Note 15 p.214), removed from NOPAT. |
| Nova Sea PPA: licenses +859.8, goodwill +308.7, DTL -253.6; consideration 1393.3 (100% basis, NOK 16bn equity value) | 1,393 | Note 22 p.220 provisional PPA table; goodwill = deferred-tax technical effect 186.1 + sites/synergies 122.5; no earn-out/contingent consideration (30% shares / 70% cash for the 46% stake, then cash offer for the last 5%) 📄 p.220 | PPA capital kept at full value in IC - management must earn a return on the price paid. PPA is provisional per 2025-12-31; re-check at FY2026. Pro-forma full-year effect: revenue +301.7, profit +10.5. |
| Nova Sea harvested-fish FV uplift add-back +16.2 (in Cost of materials, Q4 2025) | 16.2 | Note 4 segment reconciliation footnote 2, p.196 📄 p.196 | PPA inventory step-up expensed through COGS - one-off acquisition accounting, not an operating cost; the company also excludes it from Operational EBIT. |
| Other non-operational items add-back +30.5 LTM (FY -29.4, Q1'25 -4.4, Q1'26 -5.5) | 30.5 | IS line p.185 (Note 27); Q1 IS p.23; APM definition p.255 (accruals for contingent liabilities and provisions); Nova Sea acquisition costs 0.7 (Note 22 p.220) 📄 p.185 | M&A costs and contingency accruals per company definition - genuinely non-operational, excluded from operating NOPAT. |
| Impairment add-back post-tax +50.1 (LTM line: FY -54.3 + Q1'25 0.3 - Q1'26 reversal 3.9) | 50.1 | Note 8 p.201-202 (Canada goodwill 33.0, CGU WACCs, Canada carrying to zero in CGU table); Note 9 p.202 (intangible impairments 43.6: goodwill 39.1 + licenses 1.9 + other 2.6); Note 10 p.204 (PPE 3.7); Q1 IS p.23 (+3.9 net reversal) 📄 p.201 | Impairment is sunk-capital recognition, not a period operating cost - added back while the capital stays in IC; goodwill portion not tax deductible so added back at full value. Semi-recurring pattern (FY2024 -66.2) is carried as a quantified sensitivity, not a headline haircut. |
| Canada: structurally impaired unit - goodwill now zero | -33 | Note 8 p.201 (lowered harvest-volume and profitability assumptions); CGU table p.202 (Canada goodwill 35.1 -> 0, licenses 97.9 remain); APM p.258 (Canadian-origin EBIT -151.0 in 2025, -71.3 in 2024; Op EBIT/kg -1.09) 📄 p.202 | Two consecutive loss years and full goodwill write-off make Canada the recurring impairment source; remaining Canada carrying (licenses 97.9 + PPE) is the residual write-down risk. Only Canada is flagged as sensitive in the impairment test. |
| Restructuring -23.0 LTM kept in opex (no add-back) | 0 | IS p.185 (FY -18.5; FY2024 -19.5); Q1 IS p.23 (Q1'26 -4.9); Note 30 p.227 (provisions); by origin: Canada -13.2 of FY's charge (p.258) 📄 p.185 | Recurring in every period on the books - normalized as an ongoing cost per industrial checklist, rejecting the company's Operational EBIT exclusion. |
| License/production fees -52.2 LTM kept in opex (IS-line basis; company bridge excludes -58.0 incl. sales taxes) | 0 | IS p.185 (FY -48.5); Q1 IS p.23 (-13.2 / -9.5); Op EBIT reconciliation p.257 (FY -55.1) and Q1 Note 4 p.28 (-14.3 / -11.4); Note 15 p.214 (production fee credited against payable resource-rent tax) 📄 p.257 | Norwegian production fees and license taxes are a recurring cost of doing business; excluding them (as the company's APM does) overstates underlying profitability. |
| Company Operational EBIT LTM 733.6 (726.8 - 214.0 + 220.8) - APM bridge anchor | 734 | Q1 Note 4 p.28-29; FY Note 4 p.196 + reconciliation p.257; APM definitions p.255-256 📄 p.28 | Company APM anchor for the bridge check; our adjusted EBIT 665.2 diverges -9.3%, fully decomposed into items we deliberately keep (fees, restructuring, derivatives) or keep symmetric (recurring associates). |
| Recurring associate income +16.7 LTM kept in NOPAT (total 429.6 - gain 412.9) | 16.7 | Note 21 p.219 (FY 426.1 incl. 412.9 gain; Nova Sea 422.9, Tomma/Vega/Torghatten et al.); Q1 IS p.23 (Q1'26 -0.1, Q1'25 -3.6) 📄 p.219 | Associate stakes (103.9 on the Q1 BS) remain inside financing-approach IC, so their recurring earnings stay in NOPAT - symmetry. |
| Tax rate 28.8% - LTM effective rate ex non-taxable associate income, incl. Norwegian resource-rent tax | 0.288 | Note 15 p.214 (resource rent 25% seawater, total 47%; reconciliation: associate income +93.7, resource-rent net -7.9 = -35.0 +27.1 production-fee credit); Q1 IS p.23 (LTM tax 166.4, LTM EBT 1006.9) 📄 p.214 | 166.4 / (1006.9 - 429.6) = 28.8%; brackets FY2025's 31.0% and FY2024's 26.1% ex-associate ETRs. Pillar II immaterial, nothing recognised (p.217). |
| Impairment-test assumptions: pre-tax CGU WACC 9.1-12.1%, terminal growth 2.0% | 0.102 | Note 8 p.202 assumptions table (Norway 10.2%, Canada 11.2%, Chile 12.1%, Arctic Fish 9.1%; all terminal 2.0%) 📄 p.202 | Cross-check for our 8% post-tax WACC; pre-tax 10.2% Norway is consistent. Only Canada flagged sensitive to assumption changes. |
| Invested capital 7509.9 from the 2026-03-31 BS | 7,510 | Condensed Statement of Financial Position p.24; equity statement p.25 📄 p.24 | equity ex-OCI 4618.2 + IB debt 2995.2 + net pension 0.8 - excess cash 104.3; leases excluded (ROU not the primary operating assets); full Nova Sea capital included. |
| Accumulated OCI 101.7 (translation reserve) stripped from equity | 102 | Statement of Change in Equity p.25 (33.3 + 68.4 in Q1 2026) 📄 p.25 | FX translation is not an operating investment decision; stripped so IC reflects deployed capital. |
| Net pension liability 0.8 (obligations 5.7 - fund assets 4.9; DC-dominated) | 0.8 | Note 14 p.213 (pension cost -20.7, net liability 0.8); Note 20 p.219 (obligations 5.7); Note 17 p.217 (pension fund 4.9) 📄 p.213 | Mainly defined contribution; net DB position trivially small. Virgin Media/Section 37 UK ruling: uncertainty on the Mowi Scotland scheme, no provision made. |
| LTM parent net income 847.1 (717.9 - 24.8 + 154.0) | 847 | Profit attributable to owners of Mowi ASA, Q1 IS p.23; FY IS p.185 📄 p.23 | Attributable to parent shareholders only; LTM NCI share -6.5 (Arctic Fish et al.). |
| LTM FCF 438.6 (CFO 859.7 - capex 421.1) | 439 | Condensed Statement of Cash Flow p.26; FY CF p.189; LTM taxes paid 274.2; LTM lease principal 206.0 in financing 📄 p.26 | CFO minus purchases of fixed assets/intangibles; the 445.0 Nova Sea cash consideration (FY 'purchase of shares') is an acquisition, excluded from organic FCF. |
| R&D fully expensed 36.2 - no capitalization to reverse | 0 | Note 31 p.227 ('Mowi Group has not capitalised any R&D expenditures during 2025 or 2024') 📄 p.227 | rd_capitalization_reversal = 0 is verified, not assumed. |
| EU competition case: Statement of Objections, decision expected 2026, no provision | 0 | Note 27 p.225 (price-collusion allegations from 2019 inspections; UK civil claims; decommissioning obligations unquantifiable, disclosed as contingent) 📄 p.225 | Unprovisioned tail risk - a fine would be a real cash one-off; monitored, not encoded in NOPAT. |