Maersk is a container-shipping conglomerate — Ocean (the swing factor), APM Terminals (the quality asset) and Logistics & Services — in a confirmed freight down-leg. LTM adjusted NOPAT of $1.96bn on $56.4bn invested capital gives 3.5% ROIC against an 8% WACC: economic profit −$2.6bn, with Q1 2026 Ocean EBIT at −$192m as loaded freight rates fell 14% yoy.
Rated through-cycle, the economics do not clear the bar: the spread is negative at mid-cycle, and FY2026 underlying EBIT is guided at −$1.5 to +$1.0bn on newbuild overcapacity and Red Sea/Hormuz reopening scenarios. Terminals (~19% segment ROIC on $9.3bn IC) and an improving L&S (EBIT +22% in Q1, margin 4.6%) cushion the mix but cannot carry a $56bn capital base.
What keeps this a HOLD rather than a SELL is the balance sheet and the price: net cash NIBD −$1.3bn, ~$17.4bn of cash, term deposits and securities, buybacks and dividends executing below book, and a share price already sitting between no-growth EBV and book value. The downside is asset-buffered; the upside needs a rate cycle.
The frame is EBV plus asset backing, not a growth DCF. LTM adjusted NOPAT $1.96bn capitalised at 8% gives ~$24.5bn of operating value; adding $17.4bn financial assets and deducting ~$18.8bn of debt, leases, pension and NCI leaves ~$23bn of equity EBV — well below the DKK 245.5bn market cap. The market is already paying for a recovery above LTM earnings power.
The offset: parent equity of $54.1bn puts the shares at roughly 0.7–0.75x book with net cash beneath — historically Maersk's trough-valuation zone. Base DKK 16,200 (+4%) on 2027 rate stabilisation and continued buyback shrink; bull DKK 21,500 (delayed Red Sea reopening plus supply discipline); bear DKK 11,000 (reopening plus a 2016–19-style rate trough, EBIT negative through 2027). 24-month horizon.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 3% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is $-3,146/share (-20% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $21,500 | ≥-50% | +39% | 25% | Delayed Red Sea reopening + supply discipline lift 2027 rates; Terminals/L&S rerate |
| Base | $16,200 | ≥-50% | +4% | 45% | 2026 trough per guidance, 2027 rate stabilisation; buyback shrink at a book discount |
| Bear | $11,000 | ≥-50% | -29% | 30% | Reopening into the newbuild wave; 2016–19-style trough, EBIT negative through 2027 |
| Prob-weighted | $15,965 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | -2,917 | -3,252 | -3,514 | -3,970 | -4,320 | -5,379 |
| 7.25% | -3,049 | -3,394 | -3,663 | -4,130 | -4,487 | -5,565 |
| 8.00% (base) | -3,146 | -3,497 | -3,769 | -4,241 | -4,601 | -5,686 |
| 8.75% | -3,221 | -3,574 | -3,848 | -4,321 | -4,682 | -5,765 |
| 9.50% | -3,281 | -3,635 | -3,908 | -4,380 | -4,739 | -5,816 |
Green = fair value above the current price of $15,510.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
APM Terminals earns ~19% segment ROIC on $9.3bn IC — the group's only durable EP engine; earnings +9.9% in Q1.
Logistics & Services EBIT +22% in Q1'26, margin 4.6% (+0.5pp) on cost discipline — reduces Ocean dependence.
FY25 buybacks $2.05bn + dividends $2.55bn, continuing in Q1'26 — repurchases at a book discount are accretive.
Net cash NIBD −$1.3bn with ~$17.4bn cash, deposits and securities — funds capex and returns through the trough.
Ocean volumes +9.3% yoy in Q1 at 96% utilisation; 2026 market volume growth guided at 2–4%.
Maersk is a structurally sub-WACC deep cyclical in mid-down-leg, priced below book with a fortress balance sheet — fairly valued for the economics, not cheap enough for the cycle risk. HOLD, medium conviction; base DKK 16,200 (+4%) over 24 months.
A move toward DKK 11,000–12,000 — near the bear case and a deeper book discount — would offer a genuine cyclical entry. Evidence of supply discipline (idling, scrapping, delivery deferrals) or a delayed Red Sea reopening is the bull trigger; a reopening into the delivery wave is the bear one.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue 53,988 / EBIT 3,500 / tax 556 / profit 2,915 (NCI 190, parent 2,725) | 3,500 | Consolidated income statement, p.121 | FY anchor for LTM flows; NCI split needed because net_income_reported must be parent-attributable |
| Q1 2026 IS: revenue 12,970 / EBIT 340 / tax 192 / parent share 53; Q1 2025 comparatives | 340 | Condensed income statement, p.15 | LTM = FY2025 - Q1 2025 + Q1 2026 for all flow items |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet: equity 55,218, leases 12,320, borrowings 5,189, cash 6,642, securities 886 | 55,218 | Condensed balance sheet at 31 March, p.16 | IC is computed on the latest quarter snapshot, not the FY anchor |
| Accumulated OCI -840 (translation -815, FVOCI 40, hedges -65) at 2026-03-31 | -840 | Condensed statement of changes in equity, p.18 | OCI reserves are FX/actuarial noise, stripped so IC reflects deployed operating capital; negative OCI raises equity_ex_oci |
| Term deposits >3 months 10,900 inside Receivables etc. | 10,900 | Note 2 Term deposits and other receivables, p.19 | Interest-bearing term deposits are a financial reserve, not operating capital — removed from IC exactly as Maersk does in its own invested-capital APM |
| Net gains on sale of non-current assets: FY 138, Q1'25 55, Q1'26 8 | -91 | Note 2.4 Gains on sale, p.133 | Container/vessel disposal gains are removed from NOPAT — portfolio churn, not freight/logistics margin |
| FY2025 net impairment credit +40 (PPE reversal 108, PPE impairment 22, intangible impairment 46) | -40 | Note 2.3 D&A and impairment losses net, p.133 | A net impairment REVERSAL flatters EBIT; normalized to zero, which lowers adjusted NOPAT |
| Lease interest 728 within financial expenses; borrowing interest 298 | 728 | Note 2.5 Financial income and expenses, p.133 | Confirms IFRS 16 lease interest is below EBIT — no NOPAT add-back when lease liabilities are capitalized in IC |
| Goodwill 5,328 (L&S 4,635); customer relationships amort 158 | 5,328 | Note 3.1 Intangible assets, p.134 | Goodwill/equity only 9.4% — modest M&A intensity; PPA amortisation stays in opex (Maersk does not add it back either) |
| Restructuring recurrence: severance 148 (128), staff-cost restructuring 94 (73), provision B/S 68 | 128 | Note 2.2 remuneration + Note 3.8 Provisions, p.132/141 | Restructuring recurs every year at Maersk — mttssn keeps it in opex and rejects the company's underlying-EBIT addback (~128 LTM) |
| Net pension liability 190 (DBO 1,475, assets 1,396, asset ceiling 111); net interest ~-1 | 190 | Note 4.3 Pensions, p.145-146 | Net pension added to IC as debt-like capital; net interest immaterial so no P&L reclass |
| Q1 2026 restructuring charge 77 under group-wide programme announced 5 Feb 2026 | 77 | Highlights Q1 2026, p.3 | Evidence the restructuring stream continues into 2026 — supports treating it as recurring opex |
| Company underlying EBIT: 12M 2025 3,363, Q1 2025 1,199, Q1 2026 420 | 2,584 | Summary financial information p.4 + definitions p.24 | APM bridge anchor: LTM underlying EBIT 2,584 vs our adjusted 2,456, -5.0% divergence from the rejected restructuring addback |
| Maersk own invested capital APM 54,069 at 2026-03-31; NIBD -1,281 (net cash) | 54,069 | Quarterly summary, p.23 | Sanity anchor for our IC 56,402 (+4.3%, OCI-strip and operational-cash retention explain the gap) |