Camurus is a Lund-based specialty pharma monetising one asset three ways: the FluidCrystal long-acting depot platform drives own-commercialised Buvidal in Europe/Australia (77,000 opioid-dependence patients, targeting 100,000 by end-2027), a growing Brixadi US royalty stream via Braeburn (+42% y/y in Q2 to 127 MSEK), and licensing economics headlined by the Eli Lilly collaboration on long-acting incretins — extended in Q2 2026 by Lilly's USD 5m amylin option exercise.
The accounts are exceptionally clean: no goodwill, no debt, no acquisitions, essentially all R&D expensed, and no adjusted-EBIT APM (our sole adjustment moves EBIT 0.14%). Adjusted NOPAT is 631 MSEK on 633 MSEK of invested capital — cash of 4,069 MSEK is 77% of total assets — so ROIC (~100%) is an excess-cash artifact; economic profit of +580 MSEK LTM is the honest value-creation signal.
The debate is price versus pipeline. LTM EBIT of 804 MSEK sits below the FY2025 anchor purely on Lilly milestone comps (115 MSEK in H1 2025 vs 46 in H1 2026), while FY2026 guidance of 2.6-2.9 bnSEK revenue and 0.9-1.2 bnSEK operating result was reaffirmed. At ~45x EV/NOPAT the market already pays for that delivery plus CAM2029 (US acromegaly, CRL comments addressed) and SORENTO Phase 3 optionality — leaving little margin of safety at 537.5 SEK.
EV of 28.2 bnSEK (market cap 31.9 bn less 3.8 bn net cash) against adjusted NOPAT of 631 MSEK is ~45x — a ~2.2% NOPAT yield that, at the 8% default WACC, implies roughly 5.8% perpetual growth already in the price. On FY2026 guidance-mid operating result (~1.05 bnSEK, ~820 MSEK NOPAT at the 21.7% tax rate) the forward multiple is still ~34x. This is a quality franchise priced as one.
Base 560 SEK (+4%): guidance delivered, Buvidal tracks toward 100k patients, multiple compresses modestly as milestone comps normalise. Bull 760 SEK: CAM2029 US approval plus positive SORENTO readout (target PFS events Q4 2026) re-rate the pipeline. Bear 390 SEK: a second CAM2029 setback and a soft SORENTO outcome leave a ~45x multiple on a slower royalty-plus-Buvidal base.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 25.6% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 100% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +91.7 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 237/share (44% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 760 | +37% | +41% | 30% | CAM2029 US approval + positive SORENTO Phase 3 re-rate the pipeline |
| Base | SEK 560 | +27% | +4% | 45% | FY2026 guidance delivered; Buvidal tracks toward 100k patients; modest de-rate |
| Bear | SEK 390 | +16% | -27% | 25% | CAM2029 second setback + soft SORENTO; multiple compression on ~45x |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 578 | — | +7% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 301 | 334 | 359 | 399 | 428 | 510 |
| 7.25% | 264 | 291 | 311 | 344 | 368 | 436 |
| 8.00% (base) | 237 | 260 | 277 | 305 | 325 | 382 |
| 8.75% | 216 | 237 | 251 | 275 | 292 | 341 |
| 9.50% | 200 | 218 | 231 | 252 | 267 | 309 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 537.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Q2 royalty 127 MSEK, +42% y/y; Braeburn is expanding its US commercial organisation in the growing long-acting buprenorphine market.
77,000 patients (+4,000 in Q2), target 100,000 by end-2027; the competing Australian LAIB withdraws by end-2026 — a share-gain window.
Amylin option exercised in Q2 (USD 5m); long-acting semaglutide/amylin depots give the platform outsized, capital-free optionality.
US acromegaly CRL comments addressed with a regulatory update pending; SORENTO Phase 3 (GEP-NET) primary-analysis events expected Q4 2026; Oczyesa EU launch building.
FY2026 revenue 2.6-2.9 bnSEK and operating result 0.9-1.2 bnSEK — implying material growth over the 2,267/804 LTM prints.
Camurus is one of the cleanest, highest-quality businesses in the Nordic universe — zero debt, +580 MSEK economic profit on a 633 MSEK capital base, and a royalty/licensing engine that validates the FluidCrystal moat with third-party money. The problem is strictly price: ~45x adjusted NOPAT leaves no margin of safety against pipeline event risk. HOLD, medium conviction; base 560 SEK.
We would revisit on a de-rate toward ~30x forward NOPAT or on evidence the Lilly programs advance to value-inflecting milestones. SORENTO (Q4 2026) and the pending CAM2029 US update are the near-term swing factors in both directions.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM revenue 2,266.7 MSEK | 2,267 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income, p.19 (printed) 📄 p.18 | LTM built as FY2025 (2,265.4, Jan-Dec column) + H1 2026 (1,235.2) − H1 2025 (1,233.8), all from the same interim statement — single-source consistency. |
| LTM operating result 803.9 MSEK | 804 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.18 | 873.9 + 460.9 − 530.9; the drop vs FY anchor reflects H1 2025's 115 MSEK Lilly milestone comp, not operational deterioration. |
| FY2025 revenue split — product 1,751.5 / royalties 396.5 / licensing+milestones 115.1 | 1,752 | Note 5 Segment information — breakdown of revenues 📄 p.75 | Royalties (Brixadi via Braeburn) and lumpy licensing revenue are near-100%-margin streams; mttssn keeps them in NOPAT as recurring platform economics but flags the milestone lumpiness. |
| Total equity 4,680.2 MSEK at 30-06-2026 | 4,680 | Consolidated balance sheet 📄 p.20 | IC base start; all equity attributable to parent (NCI = 0). |
| Cash 4,068.6 MSEK — excess cash 4,023.3 removed from IC | 4,069 | Consolidated balance sheet; 'no loans' per Directors' report 📄 p.20 | Cash is 77% of assets and not operating capital; excess-cash convention (operational cash = 2% of LTM revenue) isolates the true 633 MSEK operating capital base. |
| Accumulated OCI +3.4 MSEK (Other reserves) | 3.4 | Consolidated statement of changes in equity 📄 p.21 | Translation reserve only; stripped from equity so IC reflects deployed capital, not FX remeasurement. |
| Capitalized development 20.7 MSEK removed from IC; amortization 1.8 added back to EBIT | -20.7 | Note 15 Intangible assets 📄 p.80 | Camurus expenses nearly all R&D; the residual legacy Buvidal-trial asset is reversed for full expensed-R&D consistency (net pretax NOPAT effect +1.1). |
| Pensions all defined-contribution — net pension liability 0 | 0 | Note 2 accounting principles — pension obligations (ITP2/Alecta as DC per UFR 10) 📄 p.68 | No DBO on balance sheet; no pension net-interest reclass required. |
| Contingent liabilities 10.1 MSEK (bank guarantees only) | 10.1 | Note 30 Pledged assets and contingent liabilities 📄 p.91 | Medtech checklist requires contingency review — no disputes, field actions or regulatory provisions; immaterial. |
| LTM FCF 654.7 MSEK | 655 | Consolidated statement of cash flow 📄 p.22 | CFO 812.5 less capex 157.8; capex doubling on own-manufacturing build-out (construction in progress 212.2). |