Thule Group is a premium, brand-led outdoor and sports-equipment company — the leader in roof racks and cargo carriers, with growing bike carriers, child carriers/strollers, bags and RV/active-with-kids categories. Adjusted ROIC of 11% and +SEK 339M economic profit reflect strong brand equity, pricing power and product innovation.
The equity at SEK 220 embeds ~5.9% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), reasonable for a premium brand with category-expansion runway but offering no margin of safety. Demand is consumer-discretionary and somewhat weather/season-exposed.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs SEK 121–150 across scenarios — below the SEK 220 price (~5.9% implied growth). The premium brand justifies a premium, but the equity is fully valued.
Base SEK 220 (flat); bull SEK 270 (category expansion + consumer recovery + margin); bear SEK 165 (a consumer/outdoor-demand downturn).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~10.0%, limited by ROIC 10% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 121/share (57% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 270 | ≥10% | +26% | 30% | Category expansion + consumer recovery + margin |
| Base | SEK 220 | ≥10% | +3% | 45% | Full: ~5.9% implied growth, premium brand |
| Bear | SEK 165 | ≥10% | -23% | 25% | Consumer/outdoor-demand downturn |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 221 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 176 | 192 | 203 | 221 | 233 | 265 |
| 7.25% | 144 | 155 | 163 | 175 | 182 | 203 |
| 8.00% (base) | 121 | 129 | 134 | 141 | 146 | 158 |
| 8.75% | 103 | 108 | 112 | 116 | 119 | 125 |
| 9.50% | 89 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 98 | 99 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 213.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Strong brand equity in cargo carriers supports premium pricing and margins.
Bike/child carriers, bags and new categories extend the growth runway.
Consistent product innovation sustains share and pricing.
Structural growth in outdoor/active-lifestyle demand.
Premium positioning supports high gross margins.
Thule is a premium outdoor-gear brand with pricing power at a full price. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 220 (flat) — accumulate on consumer-cycle weakness.
Category expansion plus a consumer recovery is the upside; consumer cyclicality is the principal risk.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.